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  • #135986
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    So, bccran, could one conclude that the Cards tried this same strategy with Ozuna and found him lacking? They didn’t even offer him a contract, just a QO, so clearly they felt he was a poor fit.

    #135995
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Really good question, stlcard25.

    #135996
    Avatarbccran
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    That’s a tough one, 25. They made a QO which they knew would not be accepted. Which would garner them a draft pick.

    Would they have matched the one year offer from Atlanta that he accepted? Maybe. I don’t think any of us know. Based upon his sore arm, though, I don’t think they would have gone for an expensive long term contract.

    #135997
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    We all know the organization’s strategy is to develop from within – as much as possible. But it has never precluded them from other moves.

    For example:

    “The Cardinals have shown a willingness to bid big in each of the past three winters. After the 2015 season, they talked contracts worth around $200 million with outfielder Jason Heyward and lefty David Price. After 2016, the Cardinals upped their offer to land center fielder Dexter Fowler. And a year ago the Cardinals agreed to absorb around $255 million of Giancarlo Stanton’s remaining contract before he vetoed a trade the Marlins had accepted.” – P-D

    Three of those four targets, they did not “know”. Yet, they were willing to make huge financial commitments, anyway.

    On other words, they deviate from their base plan when they feel it is necessary.

    #135998
    Avatarbccran
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    The question is, 25, whether the Cardinals would have done a one year deal with Ozuna. He wanted to stay in St. Louis. Right now he’s slashing .261/.371/.489/.860. Has 5 home runs in 105 plate appearance. I think that if Ozuna had produced anywhere close to his 2017 numbers last season (and the year before), and didn’t have arm issues (he won a Gold Glove in 2017), the Cardinals would have given him a very lucrative long term contract.

    #135999
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    The question is, 25, whether the Cardinals would have done a one year deal with Ozuna. He wanted to stay in St. Louis.

    That is not a question. The Cardinals offered him a guaranteed one-year contract for $18 MM and he turned it down. They got a draft pick in return and moved on.

    In fact, moving on from Ozuna seems like good advice for all of us. 😉

    #136004
    Avatarbccran
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    I’d really like to hear from 25 on this. The poster that I’m in a discussion with. Ozuna is just an example, 25, of someone they traded for and might have signed to a long term contract if things had worked out. He’s the type of player profile I’d like to see them trade for again. Preferably an outfielder. We’re too thin and inexperienced there IMHO.

    #136008
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’d really like to hear from 25 on this. The poster that I’m in a discussion with. Ozuna is just an example, 25, of someone they traded for and might have signed to a long term contract if things had worked out. He’s the type of player profile I’d like to see them trade for again. Preferably an outfielder. We’re too thin and inexperienced there IMHO.

    My view on Ozuna is that they found him a poor fit. I know they were disappointed with his bum shoulder and how he handled treatment of it in the off-season. I also think that he just didn’t produce like the middle of the order bat that they traded for him for.

    I also believe that Tyler O’Neill is an upgrade over Ozuna and that Carlson will be an above average player in RF. That leaves CF. Could you play O’Neill or Carlson there? Will Bader be ok as a backup out there? I think Thomas could be usable in CF as well. These questions haven’t really been answered. It’s also likely that the veteran we traded for would block getting answers to these questions that could be right under Mo’s nose. I think that’s why they went with the group they did for 2020. Unfortunately, with a short season, we may not get answers even then.

    #136017
    Avatargscottar
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    Like I said yesterday why would you pay $18M for a player whose production probably won’t be significantly better than a player making the league minimum? If Ozuna was still putting up his 2017 numbers this would be a different discussion but he isn’t that player any longer apparently.

    #136035
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Ozuna had a Golden Glove on his resume. That added to the Cards persuing him…. I saw that the Cards missed on Stanton and didn’t want to come up empty. They went for Stanton jr.

    #136044
    Avatarbccran
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    Great input. Thank all of you. I just look back at all the Cardinal teams this century and they seem to have had a proven
    big bat in the outfield. If Carlson and/or O’Neill can mature into that at the major league level, that will be great. We just seem to be in an “in between” period – hoping that several of our young outfielders pan out. Without an anchor out there.
    As some have said, if we could rely on a big bat at 3B to match with Goldy, it might be a different story.

    #136161
    Avatarbccran
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    Our young outfielders so far –

    O’Neill – .200
    Bader – .136
    Carlson – .129
    Thomas – .000 (only 4 PAs)

    #136162
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’ll note that O’Neill still has a 112 wRC+ despite a .179 BABIP (average is around .300, and usually higher for guys who are fast and hit the ball hard). He’s been hitting the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 91.7 mph. In other words, he’s been unlucky and he’s still at 12% above league average. No concerns there.

    Bader is what he is. A platoon bat against LHP and late inning defensive replacement.

    Carlson is young and overwhelmed. He will be fine.

    Thomas gets an incomplete. Can’t make any judgement based on 4 at bats.

    #136170
    Avatarbccran
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    I think Tyler has a chance, 25. Plate discipline is obviously the key.

    Bader probably needs to distance himself from his comment about how he’s clearly the starting CFer for the St. Louis Cardinals.

    And Thomas? He hit .268 at Memphis last season where he Ked 80 times in 304 PAs. Is he really all that exciting? Did do well in the hitter friendly Texas League, though.

    #136174
    Avatargscottar
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    The other MLB teams have done their homework on Carlson. He is getting a diet of 99% breaking balls. I’m sure he will adjust eventually and turn things around. Shildt talks about how Carlson is such a high IQ player so I would expect adjustments.

    Adding a veteran OF bat sounds like a great idea but what is never mentioned is payroll. As I have said many many times the Cardinals have kind of boxed themselves in payroll wise for 2020 and 2021. I wouldn’t expect any big payroll additions unless other teams are taking payroll back. Easier said than done.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Avatargscottar.
    #136185
    Avatarforsch31
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    Bccran, in your scenario, we would have re-signed Ozuna who is hitting .261 this year and hit .241 last year. What’s more is he is striking out 28% of the time this year. Also, he is hitting .154 with runners on base and striking out 29% of the time. That doesn’t seem like much of an improvement over Thomas to me.

    #136187
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    Regarding Carlson, as I mentioned in the “Should we have a partial 2020 Carlson and possibly lose his 2028 season”, I was against bringing him thinking he will be a much better player later than now. But the club was sort of forced into it after the virus went through the team.

    He will be fine, but looks frustrated. He likely never had to deal with baseball adversity until now. We may want to platoon in center and use Bader versus lefties, although the longer we go with Harry it seems we are prolonging the inevitable. His career has flattened out at a low level of productivity, but his defense keeps from being a negative WAR player. It looks like the best for all concerned is for Harry to start fresh somewhere else.

    Ideally we would have had Dylan playing a full season at AAA this year, but he has had to do OJT. I do think he will start to find success this season, and will end up playing most every day over the latter part of the season.

    #136188
    Avatarbccran
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    1.) I can’t discuss an Ozuna vs. Thomas comparison. That won’t work. Apples and oranges.

    2.) The Cards can improve their offense and stay within their payroll budget through a trade.

    3.) Not worried at all about Carlson. Just going through growing pains.

    #136190
    Avatarforsch31
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    Bc, I was merely pointing out that Ozuna is doing the same things you are knocking our current guys about.

    #136192
    Avatar858booyah
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    I don’t know if Bader is even playable against lefties any longer. That was an issue last year as why his production dipped because he fell off a cliff against them. I however am willing to try anything to get production out of CF. Carlson is overmatched and as a team they’ve seen a lot more breaking balls this year.

    #136194
    AvatarTinky
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    No way I am giving up on Carlson this early, but I was surprised to learn that his career batting average in the minor leagues was .261. It seems odd that our top prospect is only a career .261 hitter in the minor leagues. Why were we so high on him?

    #136196
    Avatarbccran
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    Because he’s young, Tinky. Always younger than the average age at each level. And he generally improved at the next level every time he was promoted. Give him time. He’ll be a very serviceable corner outfielder.

    #136201
    Avatarforsch31
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    Because he’s young, Tinky. Always younger than the average age at each level. And he generally improved at the next level every time he was promoted. Give him time.

    Sort of like Lane Thomas and Tyler O’Neill.

    #136202
    Avatarbccran
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    Carlson and O’Neill have both been MLB top 100 prospects. Thomas never come close, and has only had one good year in the minors. Most of that year was in the hitter friendly AA Texas League. I sure wouldn’t lump those 3 prospects together.

    #136205
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    Most of that year was in the hitter friendly AA Texas League.

    Uh, isn’t that the very same league in which Carlson experienced his first real success? He had never been a league all-star until he played there in 2019.

    We have no idea if Carlson would have backslid some (as did Thomas) or exploded in a full year in Triple-A, as he only got 2 1/2 weeks of introduction there. But it seems like Thomas was more ready for St. Louis when called up. Compare his brief debut in the majors last year to Carlson’s to date…

    It seems quite reasonable to me to evaluate the three together, as the last I checked, they are competing for starting jobs in the St. Louis outfield. None of the three is yet an established major leaguer.

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