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So you are saying this off a newspaper article that is talking about this year? I don’t see anything there that many experts say his ceiling is a 4th outfielder.
Also, I have never made a single mention of their relative rankings. The rankings have been wrong about many prospects in the past and will be wrong about many prospects in the future.
None of what you said changed the facts that Thomas has produced at Carlson’s level in the past and could in the future. If he doesn’t receive playing time, he won’t get there. However, that doesn’t change his tools and ability.
No, what I’m saying is that in the eyes of our manager right now Thomas is a #4 outfielder on this team.
That is not an expert scouting report. It is a news item. We all know who the three starters were in the truncated restart to the season. That is the best you could find?
How about this? I can even include a link.
Scouting Report: A poor man’s starter kit for five-tool potential. Thomas does everything well without owning a true standout skill. He’ll hit .250 or .260, take the occasional walk, belt out 20 homeruns, swipe 15 bags, and play 55-grade defense.
That’s starting caliber potential
wrapped up in a bargain basement price. In terms of offensive ceiling, think Nick Ahmed’s showing in 2019 when he batted .254/.316/.437 with 19 homeruns.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
The discussion here was about Thomas’ POTENTIAL, not what role he played in a few days before he went on the IL.
But if you want to shift the discussion again – to current roles – then he is not even the fourth OF. Thomas’ role in the eyes of the manager right now is a player he hopes to get medical clearance for to start to ramp up play again. What Thomas’ role will be when he returns is unknown – unless you can read minds today and tell the future.
What I do know is that I have been in enough briefings and calls with Mo and Shildt over the last nine months to know the plan was to give Thomas a chance to start. They said it over and over. That means they think he has STARTING POTENTIAL.
Thomas hasn’t gotten the chance yet to prove or disprove anything. Until we are told by the people who make the decisions that their plan has changed, it is still the plan.
I am not sure bringing this discussion to where they stand today is a good thing. Carlson is not hitting very well, right now.
Forget where we are now, Forsch31. Go back to opening day. What was the starting outfield when we opened against
the Pirates? What about when we opened the Twins series?
Thomas was given the chance in Florida and at Summer Camp to win the starting CF job from a guy who slashed
.205/.314/.366/.680 last season. And all reports are that Thomas is a very good defensive CF. He came out of Jupiter and then Summer Camp as the #4 outfielder. Do you agree with that?Bccran, if you are going to try to talk down to me, how about providing those links to all the experts who say Thomas’s ceiling is a 4th OF. Once you provide that, I will continue this discussion.
The 10 team Central division is averaging 4.31 runs scored per game (through 8-21).
CHW 5.07
MIN 4.74
DET 4.67
CHC 4.64
CIN 4.33
KCR 4.00
MIL 3.96
STL 3.93
CLE 3.92
PIT 3.86I apologize if it seems like I’m talking down to you. I don’t mean to come off that way.
I just see that Thomas couldn’t beat out a 26 year old centerfielder for the Cardinals who can’t hit the curve ball, and who had a horrible year offensively for the Cardinals in 2019.
I don’t believe Lane has the power ceiling of O’Neill. The Cards are high on power.
Bader is having a hard time right now, as is Carlson. Let’s see if Thomas gets a shot at the starting CF job when he comes back. I really would like to see him earn it. Over Bader, who I’m not that high on.
Good stats, jj. Another stat that’s interesting is the % of games season to date that the Cards have scored 3 or fewer runs. I believe it’s over 50%.
I think that White Sox team is going to be really good. They may be the 2021-2022 version of recent Houston ball clubs.
Given the absolutely pathetic performance of Cardinal regulars with men on base and in scoring position, you wonder why they didn’t take a longer look at some hitters with a proven track record of production. You’ve got a guy who came to Memphis last year without a promise of a job or regular at bats, forced his way into the lineup, didn’t even hardly get to play on some of those West Coast bandbox trips where everybody got to fatten up their power numbers (played one game in Reno – HR), started just 100 games yet drove in 75 runs for a pretty lousy team, adding 15 HR. Add another 30 games to that total and you get maybe 18-20 HR, 90 RBI, 25 doubles (finished with 22) and people would be wondering why he isn’t in the lineup every day. And unlike another first baseman who seemed to get sick or lame when Dustin May was on the hill or some other top prospect or found a way out of the first game after a long road trip, he never asked out, at one point playing in 21 games in a row. He wound up with more walks than strikeouts 69 to 54, hit .322 with runners in scoring position, 31 two-out RBI’s, .333 with two outs, posted an OPS of .889 and was voted the best defender at his position in the Pacific Coast League. You might wanna look at this guy.
Smart at bats win games. There are so many swing-and-miss guys in this lineup, why not take a longer look at somebody who puts the ball in play, hits to all fields and doesn’t give away at bats? And before you talk about power – that seems to be the one knock – ask Ryan Helmsley about the 99 MPH pitch he hit halfway up in Big Mac Land after sitting around for 40 minutes in Summer Camp, waiting for an extra at bat. It was 108 off the bat. Which, I would think, would play.
bccran said:
1) I just see that Thomas couldn’t beat out a 26 year old centerfielder for the Cardinals who can’t hit the curve ball, and who had a horrible year offensively for the Cardinals in 2019.
2) I don’t believe Lane has the power ceiling of O’Neill. The Cardinals are high on power.
1) I think I see where some of the disconnect may be coming from. You think that Thomas was competing with Bader for the starting CF job. That was NOT the case. They said all along that Bader was the starter. (Same with Fowler.) Thomas was competing with O’Neill in left.
2) The reason the Cards love power is because it is in such short supply. 😉 Seriously, there is no doubt that O’Neill has greater power potential, but as the scouting report I included above suggests, Thomas may be the better all-around player.
stantheman wrote:
Given the absolutely pathetic performance of Cardinal regulars with men on base and in scoring position, you wonder why they didn’t take a longer look at some hitters with a proven track record of production.
I think we know the reason$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ why they didn’t. Not much payroll flexibility at the moment.
Welcome, stantheman!
Since Goldy only plays one position and so does Nogowski, the only way to play them both would be to tie up the DH spot, and they have other more proven players earmarked for that. Once DeJong is back, which could be as soon as the day after tomorrow, DH/3B could be a rotation of Edman, Carpenter and Miller most days.
Thomas isn’t going to beat out O’Neill, because the Cards are infatuated with his power. Or Dexter because they’re paying him a gazillion dollars. So that only leaves CF, where the kid can’t hit a breaking ball. I’m all for him getting a shot there. That kid has a stilted assessment of himself. But if the Cards want to stay with playing their prized rookie out there, it may leave Lane at #4.
We had that 4 run game nearly won but that was Webbs first meltdown. The 4.31 runs avg of the Central is a very good line in the sand that we’ve exceeded in only 40% of our games.
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