April 9, 2021 at 7:34 pm #157548Steve60ParticipantFree
A couple of thoughts:
Arozarena is head and shoulders better than these others! He had a great playoff and as of today is hitting 280 this season! If Tampa called today and offered Arozarena for O’Neill, Bader and Thomas we would do it in a heart beat! I leave Carlson out on purpose because I do believe those in power rightfully still believe he may be an everyday player. Secondly, many have rightfully said that winning cures all ills and it is true! But when we go 2 and 5 over 7 games and out outfielders are still not hitting the outcry for change will be very loud! Lastly, how long is long enough? Bader and O’Neill have been up a long time now and have never hit! I’m pretty sure they are not going to! The problem for Mo and office is they gave up on Randy so quickly and he blossomed for someone else and we keep waiting for one of these guys to blossom and I’m afraid we are just wasting time!April 9, 2021 at 7:51 pm #157550
I’ll buy that with Carlson. But if I asked you if you would bet your house on Bader, O’Neill, or Thomas becoming a long term productive starting major league outfielder, would you make that bet, Forsch?April 9, 2021 at 8:04 pm #157551jj-cf-stlParticipantPaid - Annual
Arozarena was blocked by “proven” Ozuna and Fowler. He was bench depth that TB targeted.
That’s what “we need a proven outfielder” with a sizable contract gets you, young guys blocked and traded.
So Mo flipped the script, and is now playing his young outfielders, while kicking Fowler to the curb and thumbing his nose at Ozuna’s free agency.
But that’s not good enough, so now we’ve came full circle back to the “we need a proven outfielder” agenda again, after a handful of games.
The same posters that rate prospects here, and talk early into the morn about them, sure turn their backs on them easily. That’s always been an oddity about this site.April 9, 2021 at 8:21 pm #157553RatsbuddyParticipantFree
It’s my understanding that Ozuna is struggling so far this year.
r/Esteemed RatApril 9, 2021 at 8:52 pm #157554
Ozuna from Opening Day 2018 to today: 7.1 WAR
Bader from Opening Day 2018 to today: 6.7 WARApril 9, 2021 at 10:02 pm #157555
I sure hope you’re right on Bader, 25, or you’re going to be pretty embarrassed. Hope you don’t consider that pollution.April 9, 2021 at 10:46 pm #157556blingboyParticipantPaid - Annual
It is questionable to compare war of a defensive player with an offensive player. For the time period mentioned, Bader oWAR 3.6 Ozuna oWAR 7.1. Bader’s dWAR for the period is 3.5 and Ozuna dWAR -1.3. So Bader’s looks like a center fielder and Ozuna’s looks like a corner outfielder.April 9, 2021 at 11:50 pm #157557Nigel TParticipantPaid - Three Months
Years ago the team took a similar path. They had Bernard Gilley, Ray Lankford, and Brian Jordan. Gilley and Lankford were slow to develop and the team ended up signing Ron Gant to a huge five year deal. To make room, the team traded Gilkey. It looked horrible and Gant never really felt like a fit. It was a different front office, but the lesson was development takes time and it is maddening when you are trying to contend. Worse, it can keep you from contending if you don’t find production.April 10, 2021 at 3:19 am #157559
It is questionable to compare war of a defensive player with an offensive player.
Of course it is when you have one narrative. For those of us who believe that the game in all its phases is important, it’s not. Further, to compare corner OFers…
Marcell Ozuna bWAR/600 PA since 2018: 2.89.
Tyler O’Neill bWAR/600 PA since 2018: 2.76.
I don’t think any of us are turning our noses up at more offense. If the opportunity presented itself, I’d seek a real upgrade as well. Still, I believe that bc and yourself are overrating it. For a team example, take the Mets. They’ve had a wealth of offensive talent for years, a staff with quite a few dynamic arms (including the best in the game, DeGrom), and yet haven’t done anything of note. It’s not all on the lineup, but the team of misfit defensive players has hit the cover off the ball and booted it around the playing field while doing nothing since about 2015 to write home about.April 10, 2021 at 7:02 am #157560
Nigel – The Cards tried the same thing with Pham, Grichuk, Piscotty, and JMart. Didn’t work. They tried to supplement with Heyward, Fowler, and Ozuna. Didn’t work. It’s been 5 years since they’ve had a Holliday type player as an anchor out there. Some posters saw this coming when they went into the 2020 season with an aging CF vet taking up a corner OF position and a bunch of unproven guys. This season, they went with all unproven guys. Big risk by Mo. Even bigger than before. Sometime in the next few months the need to make a trade and get a proven LH bat out there.April 10, 2021 at 9:51 am #15756614NyquisTParticipant
Arozarena was blocked by “proven” Ozuna and Fowler. He was bench depth that TB targeted.
The Fowler signing continues to haunt the Cards. We might have known sooner what exactly to expect from the list of OFs that we are left with. Perhaps if we had kept Grichuk instead we would have had the OF that some believe we should acquire. Its water over the damn…. but the poor team management that has been displayed falls in Mozeliak’s lap. I don’t know how anyone can take him seriously… he has never owned up to that gigantic mistake in judgment. After all the damage Fowler cost us, bowtie quietly just gave him away for a small fraction of what he took from our payroll. It has been a curse and a lot of us saw it from day one.
Sorry to rehash this but it irks me to no end. I lost all respect for our GM on that day. This team would be so much better now if we were able to spend the Fowler $$ on some real talent to go along with the youngsters instead of believing that Fowler was the answer after just one season of fame in Chicago.April 10, 2021 at 10:09 am #157571bicyclemikeModeratorPaid - Annual
For at least the first half of this season, the club has committed themselves to run the young guns out there and see who among them will step up. I think it is a good approach.
They already made a splash of dealing five prospects to get Arenado. I think you have to let this team play, and see if any of the younger outfielders can make the grade.
There is enough potential that one or two guys will likely be be strong enough to play everyday.
Not much is said about this, but the guy I wonder about moreso than an outfielder is DeJong. I am not sure he is the answer as a middle-of-the-order hitter. I keep saying this, but think that Sosa might be the sleeper in the infield mix – perhaps the infield version of Arozarena. DeJong seems to rarely take good at-bats. Arenado is not going to see anything to hit if DeJong does not pick it up. But then the answer to that will be to hit someone else second, perhaps Carlson if he gets it together, and move Goldy to the 4 spot, which is really where he belongs.
If Paul D is still hitting .160 by the first of May, I think Shildt should run Sosa out there now and then and see what he does.April 10, 2021 at 10:55 am #157572blingboyParticipantPaid - Annual
DeJong knows that manning a premium defensive position and averaging a homer a week punches his ticket. In 2019 he hit .233 and was an all star. .318 OBP. 30 HRs.
Sosa is going to have to wait for two things to happen, namely, the Carp honorarium to play out and Mo’s due diligence with the outfield prospects eventually leading to Edman playing out there so we can see if Sosa and/or Rondon can play. It will take time. Bader will return and hit .225 with 30% K rate while cutting down the reps available for the others and probably pushing the only threat we have off the bench off the active roster.
It will be less exasperating if the staff and the top half of the order keep racking up wins.April 10, 2021 at 10:59 am #157573
Sorry to rehash this but it irks me to no end. I lost all respect for our GM on that day. This team would be so much better now if we were able to spend the Fowler $$ on some real talent to go along with the youngsters instead of believing that Fowler was the answer after just one season of fame in Chicago.
Looking back, it’s easy to point fingers and say it was a disaster, and some here (Bob Reed and yourself, for sure) were on that wagon from day one. I don’t think that Fowler was ever supposed to be “the answer.” At the time of his signing, the Cards were looking for a leadoff/high OBP man and a CFer. Dexter fit the mold and so they took the chance. It was in that weird period where mid tier free agents could still get the kinds of deals you’d never see today in terms of years and $$. And Dex was pretty good in that first year before quickly falling off. While it happened sooner than we would have predicted, that was sort of baked into the deal (as it will be with Goldy and Arenado in a few years).
That said, I understand your frustration. I think Mo has been playing catch up since about 2014 with Oscar Taveras’ death and has made some good moves and not so good moves. Personally, I think the pickups of Ozuna, Goldy and Arenado were excellent on the process end of things even if they didn’t bring all the best results. In my opinion, those moves have brought Mo back into my good graces. If he finds a star to plug in for 2022 to further deepen the lineup (OF or SS) and some pitching help, I will say that he’s done a pretty good job. That won’t work for you, I know, but I hope you’ll at least consider it objectively.April 10, 2021 at 11:11 am #157577Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
So, the Randy spin is that he was the best OF performer because he hit well at Double-A, when everyone other than Carlson was at higher levels. I am pretty sure if the others had been sent down like Randy was, they could have put up big numbers, too.
I respect what he did while here and he was recognized on this site. But the legend seems to grow over time.April 10, 2021 at 11:27 am #157580
I’d like to bring Barrel rates into the discussion, for several reasons.
1) comparing our team’s offense over the years
2) considering Lane Thomas, Dean, and Williams as potentials for us
As most of you know, Barrel rates are determined for a year (?) ex post by looking at all batted balls by launch angle and exit velocity and selecting those at each two-factor combination with BA above .500 and SLG above 1.500. The BA on barreled balls is over .800. The BA on balls over 100mph (including those with bad launch angles is ‘only’ .600.
I have to break my post up in order for it to post (Brian??)April 10, 2021 at 11:29 am #157583April 10, 2021 at 11:29 am #157584April 10, 2021 at 11:30 am #157585
Carpenter (14.3), Carson (11.5), Molina, O’Neill, Goldschmidt (7.1)
Nota Bene: if you want to play with their website, and want 2021 data, you have to edit the URL yourself.
I have set the minimum for the above tables at BBE=1, so as to see our unqualified batters. BBE = Batted Balls.
For comparison, here is a normal year (2020) with the min BBE of 25:
2020 BBE min of 25
Leaders Tatis (12.5), Seager (12.1), Soto (11.7), Jimenez 11.5), Hernandez, Harper, Lowe, Sano, Belt, Davidson, Chapman (10.5)
No surprises at the top.April 10, 2021 at 11:31 am #157587
1) 12.5 is a great barrel rate. You have to get everything right. That’s Tatis. His ‘hard hit’ rate is 62.5, which includes ‘any launch angle’ and ‘greater than 95 mph’. Much easier to do!
2) 12.5 is measuring the ratio of Barrels to PA. For Tatis, with a Barrels rate of 12.5, his ration of Barrels / BBE was 19.5, obviously higher because of all the PA where he was walked or struck out.
Back to the Cards:
1) O’Neill in 2018, at 12.0%, was pretty amazing. That why there is hope for him. There is no luck involved in barreling a batted ball. If you barrel a lot, you will mash. O’Neill’s problem currently is that if you whiff, you can’t get a BBE.
2) There is hope for Dean (great number, small sample), and also Williams, who had great exit velocity in Spring, and is at 7.1 right now to 2021. They need experience, which is why it is great that Dex is gone, though I liked him.
Turning to Arozarena,
Randy at 7.9, very good but not great. I do not know if the postseason is included.
Right now, he is sucking wind, down at 3.7, hitting the ball into the ground at a-7.3 launch angle.April 10, 2021 at 11:35 am #157590gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
Of course it is when you have one narrative. For those of us who believe that the game in all its phases is important, it’s not
Thank you for saying that. It is amazing that some fans don’t acknowledge that offense is only one aspect of a team.April 10, 2021 at 11:58 am #157600
Sorry to rehash this but it irks me to no end. I lost all respect for our GM on that day. This team would be so much better now if we were able to spend the Fowler $$ on some real talent to go along with the youngsters instead of believing that Fowler was the answer after just one season of fame in Chicago
I feel the same way, NY, but without as much irksomefullness.April 10, 2021 at 12:24 pm #157605
The problem with our OFers is that they’re worried too much about “swing plane”, “exit velocity”, and “barrel rate”. Way too much analysis. Boggles them when they’re at the plate. Thinking too much about that and not enough about plate discipline. And it’s happening every day. Just look for a good pitch to hit and hit it hard where it’s pitched. On any count.April 10, 2021 at 12:36 pm #157607
I didn’t know that you were a Luddite, bc. The fog is beginning to clear.April 10, 2021 at 2:01 pm #157611gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I don’t understand how we are 5-2 with such a terrible OF. It is almost as if maybe there are other aspects to the team that contribute to winning.
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