Offense

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  • #141277
    Avatargscottar
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    If it’s a payroll issue, he created that issue.

    Yes it is and yes he did. The only person who can hold him accountable for that is DeWitt but DeWitt seems to be looking at the bigger picture of how the entire organization is being operated and based on that he gave Mo a contract extension that runs through 2023.

    There are many facets to team building. My own personal grading for Mo and the front office would be:

    1. Drafting- B plus
    2. Developing- A minus
    3. Trades- C plus
    4. Free Agency- D plus
    5. Internal Contract Extensions- D minus

    Overall I would give a grade in the range of C plus to B minus. Since most of our players come from categories 1 and 2 we usually have a very competitive team. If we could get better at categories 3, 4, and 5 we would be a powerhouse.

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatargscottar.
    #141281
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Here’s the 11 players with at least the 79 PA’s Fowler has. The 12th player has 40 PA’s, so I drew the line at Fowler’s 79 PA’s.

    OPS+
    149 Goldschmidt
    127 Miller
    120 Fowler
    98 Edman
    97 Bader
    ————–
    91 DeJong
    82 Molina
    81 Wong
    77 Carpenter
    74 O’Neill
    35 Carlson

    Two of the top 5 ops+ on the club are outfielders, Fowler and Bader. So lets debunk the folly that two outfield positions are not producing. One outfield spot is unproductive with two outfielders ranking 10th and 11th, O’Neill and Carlson. 1B, DH and super utility (Edman) are also in the top 5.

    SS, Catcher, 2B and 3B rank 6th through 9th. DeJongs 91 is still respectable, and then it falls off fast; 82, 81, 77 (20mil, 10mil and 18mil).

    #141283
    thejagerthejager
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    MO is fine…you just have to realize he has an ego and doesn’t want to look bad…

    -Fowler = swung and missed on Heyward, tried to tell us all Fowler was just as good, gave him a huge contract, he isn’t good and the excuses roll in and out of managements mouth to protect Mo’s ego on this massive mistake
    -Carpenter = despite seeing his trending down batting and so so fielding and age…Mo gave Carp an unnecessary contract before the season started as a means of trying to take the pressure off Carp so he could hit better…that’s a big mistake and again you run him out there and talk about his one good game or one good thing a lot to protect the decision to sign him to that kind of money before the season (no one was banging on the door to get Carp)
    -Bader = posterboy for the Cardinals “new look” post Matheny…posterboy for defense and hustle matter the most…hype him after his first year on posters and in ads all in hopes his bat would work out…it hasn’t and he is what he is…a premiere defensive 4th OFer…but since they propped him up so much they can’t lose face on not forcing him into the lineup as much as possible
    – ONeill = trade away Marco (because you can’t find a good way to move on from other SPs) and take on the young power hitter…who was a few years past his “no miss” high prospect status…gambled big…lost big…but again, have to save face on the bad deal by playing him and promoting ANYTHIGN he does well to distract from the big mistake
    -Lane = same thign really…hype up the kid, because you didn’t want to bring Ozuna back, play all these kids outfielders because you weren’t willing to gamble on Ozuna for even a one year deal…which really came from the fact that you gave up two good young pitchers to get him and it didnt work out…so even though Ozuna was semi-productive last year yo ucan’t let your fragile go be damaged by bringing him back on HIS terms…you have to force him away and lean on all these great other decisions for the OF which will you show you how smart you are…didn’t work…Ozuna is doign his thing in ATL and Gallen and Sandy are doing theirs
    -Carlson = great looking prospect, shouldn’t be up, but you have to play him because it distracts from other mistakes and you have no other good options
    -Edman = play him because he played well last year, keep talking last year because this year he is what he probably is, a great utility player and possible starter, have to play him and talk im up because you didnt do anything to fix the offense and he was supposed to be a cornerstone of making the decision to NOT get anyone because his offense woud be good or better…didn’t happen and you are playing a utility player everyday to save face on not finding offense
    -Goldy = fine…but wasn’t power supposed to be a part of his game? oops…
    -Wong = fine, but should never have been depended on for offense, which was paramount in NOt getting offense in the offseason…mistake, he is the Yadi of the infield or Bader of the outfield…guys who can be offensively average or below average because of their defense…BUT only when you have good and above average hitters everywhere else
    -Yadi = fine…does what he should be doing and even with his paycheck wins games for us with the pitchers and his defense (and as he can…occasionally with the stick) BUT…now he is somehow needed to produce at the plate…mistake…but have to talk about his 2000th hit and defense to distract again
    -DeJong = fine…still, depending on his offense to “carry” the team is a big mistake…his tendencies only matter if you have other good hitters…we don’t..mistake…
    -B Miller = a flash in the pan his whole career and we are playing him everyday because laughably his flash in the pan is better than most guys normal production…he is a bench utility bat with some nice pop…totally fine role, but him hitting 4th is terrifyingly a mistake…but since we don;t have anyone else prop him up and hope he can be hot to distract yet again…
    -Ravelo = i only include him because when he was NOT allowed to go to Korea and we kept him, that should have been a big warning sign for the offense, we shouldn’t “Need” Ravelo…a good offensive team shouldn’t be dependent on a minor league hitter with no pop and decent contact…but talk his upside forever to distract yet again…

    The point is that we knowingly went into this season even before COID with no real offense and an amazing pitching staff and pen…we did nothign to make the offense better in any way other than HOPE bad players got better, and players with good years kept being good, and also that father time wouldn’t bite us

    Our best chance for offensive upgrade was Carp and Fowler turning back time about 4 years, ONeill and BAder learning how to make contact….add in a Carlson hope and prayer along the way…that’s pathetic

    bUT that was what we get when they protect bad decisions over trying to truly improve the team..

    I dont think MO should be gone…i do think that the purse strings need to be loosened because he should be allowed to make some mistakes without feeling his ego and stature attacked…he should have the freedom to go and bring in Arenado and take on the money because the other decisions hasnt worked out…he should feel comfortable trading some blue chippers to bring in what the team is lacking (Merrifeld) knowing that there will be money there to fill any holes created by losing some prospects…

    This team should look like (because i truly believe we had the right stuff to get them)

    Merrifeld (LF)
    DeJong
    Goldy
    Arenado
    Fowler (RF)
    Yadi
    Wong
    Edman (DH)
    Bader (CF)

    Carp, Wieters, Sosa, Miller, ONeill

    At least IMO, the lineup is top heavy but the bottom has the speed and pluckiness that woudl still be helpful, the bench has enough thump and handedness to work

    Merrifield and Arenado are exactly what we are lacking and what we don’t have in the system, both woudl have been expensive, but both are what you go get when you see a problem with the team

    Carp and Fowler’s contracts killed our chances since their arrival and will do so the rest of this season and next…the only hope we have is again HOPE for bad players to play better and young players to play above their heads and that the pitching can be so good it distracts us from the terrible offense that NEEDS the pitching

    amazing pitching shouldnt be necessary for an offense to be good or not…yet here we are year after year

    #141284
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Nice analysis, gscottar. I will have to think about the scores a bit more before commenting. But I sense you are on the right track to assess a multi-faceted job with more than one measure. Sort of like using OPS or OPS+ or WAR to assess a player instead of batting average… 😉

    But ultimately to assess a GM/PBO, the results of the MLB team is the bottom line. Last year, the Cards played in the NLCS and 2020 is the year of the asterisk. Frustrated folks can talk all they want about replacing Mo this winter, but since it didn’t happen after three straight playoff misses, it sure ain’t happening now.

    #141285
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    For me, Ozuza is the Groundhog Day sub-subject here. No one wanted to see him back in left field. That the DH was later implemented for 2020 was predicted by no one. The Braves made what turned out to be a great investment, but they were more lucky than savvy. Sort of like the Cardinals and Miller on a lesser scale. If Miller had to play in the field every day, we’d see him in the lineup about as often as Ravelo.

    #141286
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    This team should look like (because i truly believe we had the right stuff to get them)

    Merrifeld (LF)
    DeJong
    Goldy
    Arenado
    Fowler (RF)
    Yadi
    Wong
    Edman (DH)
    Bader (CF)

    So for Merrifield you trade Carlson and for Arenado you trade Gorman. Since both are old and Arenado is expensive, in three years you remain in salary purgatory but instead of a down year in the low 80s wins, you’re looking at several years of 65-70 wins, no farm system to restock the team and a good $80M locked up in three players (Goldy, Arenado and Flaherty in his last year of arb).

    Interesting short term take if you’re into the boom and tank style.

    #141288
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Not that we didn’t perceive this already.

    #141290
    Avatarforsch31
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    Isn’t is amazing that the more runs you score, the better the chance of winning.

    #141293
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    The team I watch most every day is the team we are. I see no reason to think this team is better than their play on the field. I felt it was for awhile, but the last two weeks have shown me what-you-see-is-what-you-get (thanks Flip Wilson).

    It is fun to see the battle for the post season tourney unfold, but we are really pretenders. Worse than average offense, better than average starting pitching, average bullpen, average defense. Not particularly exciting on the bases. A classic .500 team that in any normal baseball season would be playing out the string.

    #141294
    Avatarbccran
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    BA is still a decent stat when used in conjunction with other stats – OBP, slugging, total bases, runs, RBI, doubles, triples, home runs, stolen bases, etc.
    Best to let each fan do evaluations the way they wish and not make fun of them because of it. If posters don’t think outfielders hitting .204, .180, .170, and .111 is a problem, that’s their private analysis and should probably be kept private.

    #141295
    thejagerthejager
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    Carlson and Gorman are not the farm system…and losing either or even both would not cripple it at all…nor do i think it woudl take both of them to get Arenado and Merrfield…probably one at least

    I don’t see how “crippling” Arenado and Merrifield are to the team…how again is it that we would have 15 less wins with a more stable and impactful offense?

    In your scenario of Gorman and Carlson gone… how does that hurt the pitching depth? Also, we have not depended on gorman or Carlson for pretty much any of our wins this year, and you are saying Arenado and Merrifield wouldn’t have improved it?

    Also “old”? Arenado is 29, Merrifield is 31 and cheap. Both have been stalwarts for playing and are hit machines and stellar defensively. Even if Merrifield in a couple years transitions to utility or DH he is still very valuable. Merrifield has led the league in hits what the last 3 years, steals bases still. Arenado is the only competition to Trout for being best all around player and triple crown threat. not to mention being a gold glover.

    Carlson and Gorman have proven NOTHING…how we got in this mess is putting so much hope and dependence on young players to become stars…which hasnt worked out too well

    best hitters on our team are “old” outside of DeJong…I’d love if Gorman and Carlson were slam dunks…but are we willing to wait 5 years for them to show it? Just because they get called up doesnt guarantee production as we have seen in Carlson, and lets not act like Gorman doesnt have some potential deficiencies in his hitting makeup

    a second ROCK good contact feared hitter in the middle, and a high contact leadoff man are what this team is missing, it takes dependence of offensive production off of other positions and does not sacrifice defense at all to get it (in fact makes the defense better)

    I have no problem going to bat for my thoughts on what improves our offense and paying players or trading for players in their prime years even up to 33 is not a big deal for…prospects are prospects…and our club does not produce hitting prospects very often…wwe produce very good pitching…in hopes of being able to save that money from buying pitching to spend that on hitting we lack… lately they have been trying to do both…depend on cheap hitting and homegrown pitching with a few dips into FA and foreign markets to keep the balance….unfortunately he has spent all his money on the wrong players…and instead of taking it on the chin and finding a way to still improve the team we sit and bank all our hopes on just that HOPE…which is why we have no offense…it has no identity because the players are far too inconsistent to develop any strategy other than hope and luck

    #141300
    Avatarforsch31
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    What’s the difference between a poster feeling low batting averages are OK and posting about it and a poster feeling they aren’t OK and posting about it?

    #141301
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    he’s saying if you don’t agree with him, keep it private.

    #141303
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    thejager posted REPLY #141283 (too long to quote here)

    That was a helluva post. It captures some of the logical fallacies that have led the organization to being deficient at the plate and a predictably boring watch. We better hope they keep developing good mound talent because top shelf free agent hurlers will be hard to attract.

    #141304
    Avatarbccran
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    What I’m saying Forsch and jj, is if a poster still likes to refer to BA, other posters shouldn’t laugh at him with a smiley face and try to embarrass him. That’s all.

    #141305
    Avatarbccran
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    Euro – They’ve always believed in developing pitchers and using them as trade chips to get position talent as needed. They failed to do that this off season. Have dug a hole for themselves offensively that they need to dig themselves out of.

    A agree regarding thejager’s long analytical post – amazing.

    #141308
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    ah, reply # 141284
    so you’re telling the boss when he can voice an opinion or he should keep it private. You’re censoring the boss. I’ll just stand over here out of the way.

    #141311
    Avatarbccran
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    The boss is both a moderator and a poster. I have the utmost respect for him as the founder and moderator of this web site and forum. If he laughs at me as a fellow poster, I don’t care for it.

    I’m significantly older than you are, jj.
    I have a number of stats that have worked for me for a long time. I want to stay with those. Just my personal choice. They work for me and I’m comfortable with them.

    #141415
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    An article on Tyler O’Neill on VEB this morning.

    https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/9/23/21447570/tyler-oneill-just-another-speed-and-defense-guy

    Here’s the main take for me:

    What’s interesting is that this version of Tyler O’Neill actually has an even higher ceiling than the one-dimensional masher he was supposed to be; a guy who can run and defend the way he can could be an All-Star or even MVP candidate if he puts up offensive numbers. Problem is, offensive numbers are what we’re lacking from O’Neill in 2020. Somehow the guy build like a literal action figure is, at least this season, just another speed and defense guy.

    #141416
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It is as simple as cutting down on strikeouts and sacrificing power in the process?

    #141421
    Avatarbccran
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    Seems to me if he just tries to make contact the home runs will come. He’s that strong. Doesn’t need to “swing for the fences”.

    #141432
    thejagerthejager
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    Have we seen any kind of dramatic change in hitting philosophy with any players on the team? They all seem to be pretty much what they were in the minors (or lesser versions but same general idea of a hitter) or am I missing something?

    Changing how you hit seems to be a pretty big change for these guys.

    Defense i have seen players change and get better but i am not sure i have seen any kind of major improvements or changes to hitters from the Cardinals. Some are worse but i am struggling to see better hitters or guys that have made major adjustments.

    DeJong is about what he was, ONeill and Bader are worse, Wong is about what he was but is as enigmatic as always, Edman, Carp about the same…I guess maybe Carp added power later in his career but cant seem to switch back

    The basics of even bunting seem to be hit or miss (no pun intended) for a lot of these guys, they even said on the broadcast that Shildt said he cant ask some guys to do things because they actually cant do it (like bunting).

    Carp has been staring at that shift for years now, and he still cant just hit it to left field or even learn to bunt there.

    also…i will say there is one player who changed… Yadi… he went from a nothign hitter to a solid hitter for average and even adjusting to hit for a bit more power later

    I always thought Yadi’s improvement was directly linked to his closeness with Pujols…who we dont have anymore…we have a professional hitter in Goldy but he seems a quieter guy and all these guys didnt come up with him in the system ahead of them to observe or learn from…

    Who have these hitters had as a player on the team they could aspire to be more like? Carp maybe had a little Holliday to look at, but everyone else’s model at best was Carp…and to me i see a lot of Carps out there…guys who cant really adjust and bank on mistakes or a walk more than working a pitcher to get what they want

    #141435
    Avatargscottar
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    Many of us pegged O’Neill as Randal Grichuk 2.0. At the time that was probably not meant as a compliment but Grichuk has put up some decent numbers with the Jays.

    My concern with giving up on O’Neill too early is that he develops into Luke Voit 2.0. He is already a better defender and base runner than Voit but if he were to be traded and started hitting like Luke our fan base would be sick.

    #141438
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Carp has been staring at that shift for years now, and he still cant just hit it to left field or even learn to bunt there.

    While I’m frustrated that the team has struggled to move runners over, it’s not exactly the job of your best hitter (as Carp has mostly been from around 2013 to 2018) to bunt. That said, I’ve witnessed Carp bunting to beat the shift. I’ve seen him try to go to left. But if the stats say you’re better off hitting over the shift than bunting or hitting singles to left, it’s gonna be very difficult for anyone to justify the latter. Specific cases, yes.

    But we’ve watched this year what happens when a team that slaps singles and hopes for doubles has an off night. It’s futility to the nth degree. Teams go after homers because at least if you get 3 hit and you luck into a couple walks and hit a HR or two, you have a shot to win. How many times have we stranded 10 runners or more in a game we lost because we had terrible sequencing? Seems like quite a few.

    #141561
    thejagerthejager
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    Maybe Carp shouldnt have been considered nor continue to be considered or depended on to be our “best” hitter. HE is not, has not been in quite a while, and is still treated as just a slumping power hitter. If he has the skills to bunt to the left or hit there I have not seen it outside a few mistakes and the VERY few and far between intentional. He should ONLY be hitting to the left and bunting at this point, if he is capable.

    Those “numbers” that may state hitting over the shift is his best choice seem to be faulty if following them has led to what we have seen over the course of this season and the last couple. IMO he was at his best when he was not dependent on power only when he started adding some power did he shift to this cleanup hitter replacement for Holliday internally.

    What i am saying is that everyone keeps saying, “if so and so would just change and do x then it would be ok” but i see no evidence of anyone outside of Yadi changing their hitting ability once they have come up.

    Carp and Fowler….what are they?

    Fowler was supposed to be our CFer speedy second leadoff hitter and combined with Carp at the front an on base nightmare for other teams.

    And Carp later (after failing at leadoff and adding one big second half of power and thus a big contract) was supposed to be fix for the power problem in the middle.

    Just because they have failed miserably at the their roles and not lived up to their contracts does not mean we still don’t have NEEDs in those roles.

    We have no leadoff hitter and we have no middle order protection or power. Fowler and Carp were supposed to be doing that. And the failure of the FO to address those problems is what is the problem. The players they depended on to do those roles failed, but they failed by finding other solutions, instead continuing to force those players into those roles to the point of damage to the rest of the team and it’s offensive (pun intended) output

    There are solutions to find, but they require to owning up to your mistakes and taking responsible for the financial or prospect loss hit it will require to fix them. That is what is not happening. We sit on prospects and cry we have no money yet we have plenty of both to fix the problems. If it is about winning a WS we arent doing it, if it’s about making it look like we gave a good try and excuses about down years or injuries and COVID and whatever else and “well at least we made the playoffs” are just insulting to continue to hear as all they truly signal is maximizing PROFIT over success and/or taking ownership of your own mistakes

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