Offense

[stlcard25]

Did we choose to include Arozarena in the trade, or did the Rays insist on him?

If it’s obvious enough that you wanted to keep him, no doubt the Rays insisted on including Arozarena. I would have, if I were them.

[forsch31]

Kelenic – good power, contact hitter to all fields. Fast and a good defender with a strong arm. Plays CF and should be able to stay there long term. Although, he would be a great RF if he needs to move. #2 rated OF in all of baseball by MLB, #10 overall prospect. Just turned 21 in July.

Kirilloff – from a batting point of view he is almost the same as Kelenic with a little less speed He will probably end up in LF or even 1B, eventually. #9 rated OF in all of baseball by MLB, #28 overall prospect. Will turn 23 this offseason.

[bccran]

They both look good. Thanks for sharing. Can we they help us in 2021?

[stlcard25]

Here are some major league guys we could look at to improve the offense in 2021. They have been mentioned or hinted at here at some point or another:

Mitch Haniger:

2018-.285/.366/.493 137 wRC+ 4.5 WAR
2019-.220/.314/.463 106 wRC+ 1.1 WAR
2020-DNP

Pros: Good power, decent walk rate over 10% both years, average fielder in RF.
Cons: Right handed only bat, and coming back from an injury so value is a bit up in the air.

Michael Conforto

2018-.243/.350/.448 120 wrC+ 3.0 WAR
2019-.257/.363/.494 126 wRC+ 3.7 WAR
2020-.335/.427/.536 166 wRC+ 2.1 WAR

Pros: Huge 2020, good power, lefty, can play all three OF positions (altough not well in CF)
Cons: Only one year of arb left, would still cost a good bit in prospects and his huge 2020 will drive up the price

Joc Pederson:

2018-.248/.321/.522 126 wRC+ 2.7 WAR
2019-.249/.349/.548 127 wRC+ 3.0 WAR
2020-.174/.268/.376 77 wRC+ -0.2 WAR

Pros: Lefty bat who mashes RHP, good power, a free agent so he only costs money and probably comes cheap, a capable fielder at all three OF positions but maybe best to keep out of CF as he ages
Cons: Probably a platoon bat now as he’s always been bad against LHP, walk rate steadily declining, bad 2020

Max Kepler:

2018-.224/.319/.408 98 wRC+ 2.7 WAR
2019-.252/.336/.519 121 wRC+ 4.4 WAR
2020-.205/.304/.390 90 wRC+ 0.7 WAR

Pros: Good power in 2019 (36 HRs), solid plate discipline that’s been pretty steady, a very good fielder in RF, not terrible platoon splits as a left handed batter, signed through 2024
Cons: His big year came in 2019, the year of the rabbit ball, low batting average, a lot of his value comes from defense, which can be a detriment to improving the offense, will probably cost several prospects to obtain

Eddie Rosario:

2018-.288/.323/.479 114 wRC+ 3.5 WAR
2019-.276/.300/.500 103 wRC+ 1.2 WAR
2020-.253/.319/.478 112 wRC+ 0.6 WAR

Pros: Steady Eddie as a left handed power bat, with 24+ HR three years in a row and 12 this season, good batting average and probably the most available of the Twins OF via trade
Cons: 1 year of arb left, is not a very good fielder at all despite a strong arm, never walks at all (career 4.7%), the Twins probably see him as blocking their OF prospects at this point

Marcell Ozuna:

2018-.280/.325/.433 107 wRC+
2019-.241/.328/.472 109 wRC+
2020-.313/.402/.596 160 wRC+

Pros: The org knows him, good power bat, huge 2020 showing the potential he has in the bat (similar to 2017), free agent so no prospect cost
Cons: The org knows him and already passed once, he wasn’t very good while here, right handed bat, the glove doesn’t play so he’s probably a DH going forward, the SunTrust factor is big, will want years/$$

Andrew Benintendi

2018-.290/.366/.465 122 wRC+ 4.4 WAR
2019-.266/.343/.431 100 wRC+ 2.0 WAR
2020-.103/.314/.128 43 wRC+ -0.5 WAR

Pros: Solid all around player who plays a very decent left field, lefty bat with a decent on base approach and acceptable Ks (career 19%), >/=100 wRC+ each full year of career, 2 years of arb time left
Cons: Has one standout season with two average ones in career, poor/injured 2020, not a ton of power for a corner OF.

Jorge Soler

2018-.265/.354/.466 123 wRC+ 0.9 WAR
2019-.265/.354/.569 136 wRC+ 3.6 WAR
2020-.235/.331/.456 113 wRC+ 0.6 WAR

Pros: Huge power in 2019, solid power otherwise, consistent ~10-11% walk rate, above average wRC+ the last three years, very consistent BA/OBP in 2018-2019, 2 years of arb
Cons: Poor glove, probably DH only, strikes out a lot, low WAR despite offensive stats, Royals may want more than he’s worth as their #2 bargaining chip, right handed bat.

Whit Merrifield

2018-.304/.367/.438 119 wRC+
2019-.302/.348/.463 110 wRC+
2020-.277/.326/.455 110 wRC+

Pros: Super solid, Cardinals type player. Hits for a high average and can get on base, solid defense, can play many positions, solid WAR totals yearly, leadoff batter to plug in
Cons: Will cost a lot in prospects, already 31 so in decline phase (dropping OBP), Cards may be looking for more of a #4/5 type, RH bat

Brandon Nimmo:

2018-.263/.404/.483 148 wRC+ 4.5 WAR
2019-.221/.375/.407 111 wRC+ 1.3 WAR
2020-.283/.408/.512 154 wRC+ 1.6 WAR

Pros: Great OBP, good power, capable fielder in the OF, 2 years of arb left
Cons: Would the Mets want to trade him? They are not small budget/market. Average fluctuates, strikes out a lot, and lower WAR totals than you’d expect with the bat and on base skills.

[jj-cf-stl]

thanks for the effort 25.

[stlcard25]

I’ll also add one more thing about Tyler O’Neill as a side note. I ran a query for BABIPs on our Cards from 2012-2020, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances in a given season. There were 118 individual seasons of record. Here some results:

1. 2019 Tyler O’Neill .386
2. 2015 Stephen Piscotty .372
3. 2017 Tommy Pham .368
4. 2013 Allen Craig .368
5. 2015 Randal Grichuk .365
6. 2018 Tyler O’Neill .364

116. 2018 Dexter Fowler .210
117. 2020 Tyler O’Neill .200
118. 2015 Pete Kozma .192

O’Neill suddenly went from a guy who put two in the top 6 BABIPs in recent Cards history to a guy who was keeping company with two of the most inept hitters we’ve seen in a good while (plodding Mr Albert Pujols’ worst of his career is a .217 in 2015, with the next worst a .238 last year). I would say Mr O’Neill has had some bad luck. He’s probably not a true .360+ BABIP guy (only a few like Trout are) but .320-.330 isn’t out of the question. If he was putting that up, you’d see his stats skyrocket. That’s why I don’t want to block him with a minor bat upgrade. He needs 400-500 PA minimum next year.

[bccran]

Terrific summary of possible candidates, 25. Thank you.

[gscottar]

Great job 25. Terrific synopsis.

[bccran]

I guess the question is how much time the Cards can afford to give any young player to settle in and produce. And how do you do it with multiple players? If Tyler needs 400-500 PAs next season to settle in, how do you give Carlson, Bader, and Thomas the same courtesy? And can a major league fan base paying major league prices have that kind of patience? The 4 seats we have when we go to games as part of a season ticket group have a face value of $150 a game. That’s $600 for a family of 4 plus parking and concessions. Tony always said that players had to be ready when called up. That the majors weren’t for development.

[stlcard25]

The Cards has 2300ish plate appearances by outfielders in 2019. Also, if the DH stays that’s another 600-700 PA to divvy up Theoretically, they could give 5 players 400-500 plate appearances so yeah, they could fit all those guys in.

That’s not necessarily what I’m advocating. As I’ve mentioned before, I think O’Neills improving plate approach, solid defense and power potential merit regular PT. If it were me, I’d sign a Joc Pederson to platoon in LF. Give him most every start against righties. Tyler starts against the lefties and a fair amount in CF against RHP, especially early in the year.

Bader is Kolten Wong of the OF…bat will be below average but the glove is elite so he has value. He’s gets some CF starts against LHP especially, and late inning replacement/pinch running.

Thomas I feel like missed his best chance. I doubt he gets a real shot unless there are injuries. Still, he could ride the shuttle if it’s available for him or just be your 4th OF, or maybe traded.

Carlson starts the year in Memphis and gets the call whenever he looks totally ready. He can start in any position so from, say, late May on he’s platooning (not strictly) with Fowler or playing CF a fair amount.

Fowler’s still here. His PT will depend on how he performs. If it’s like this year he probably starts a lot. If it’s like 2019 he’s a platoon guy. If it’s 2018 he gets cut.

Let’s say the OF group gets 2300 PA.

Pederson 450 PA
O”Neill 500 PA
Bader 350 PA
Thomas 150 PA
Carlson 450 PA
Fowler 400 PA

Add in a couple houndred DH appearances and there are appearances for most all involved.

[gscottar]

That is exactly how I envision it 25.

[Euro Dandy]

25 wearing his thinking cap.

[bccran]

That seems like a reasonable plan. My question would be why you’re giving the most PAs to Tyler. 150 more than Bader? 350 more than Thomas, who was a favorite of Mo’s this last off season? 100 more than Fowler?

[stlcard25]

O’Neill is the best player, so he gets priority at bats.

[stlcard25]

Of course injuries can swing the balance of PT. So can ineffectiveness or a good season. If Fowler is hitting .150 and looking inept when Carlson is called up, he might be released. If O’Neill is OPSing .900 at the time, you can bet he’s gonna keep playing.

[bccran]

“O’Neill is the best player”, 25?
I think you would have a number of people challenge that.

[stlcard25]

At least one, no doubt. I’d take O’Neill 100% of the time over Bader, Thomas and Fowler. His stats this year are down completely due to an unsustainably low and absurd average on balls in play.

[jj-cf-stl]

Pederson came into the 2020 season with a career .260 BAbip. He’s at .178 this season after 124 PA’s.

What’s his FA estimate? Calhouns 2/16mil w/option?

[Euro Dandy]

stlcard25, I think there are more factors with O’Neill’s performance to chalk it up as completely due to poor BABIP. The BBs are up slightly and Ks are down, but so are the barrel and hard hit percentages. That means there’s more than just bad luck involved. How much though? He changed his approach some and that plays into how the ball is coming off the bat. Not all balls in play are equal. I think he’s in an adjustment phase and not sure where he’ll end up. I’ve seen some of these guy eventually revert to their old, more comfortable ways when the new approach doesn’t yield the desired results. Does any of that concern you?

[stlcard25]

Pederson came into the 2020 season with a career .260 BAbip. He’s at .178 this season after 124 PA’s.

What’s his FA estimate? Calhouns 2/16mil w/option?

In the economic environment of today and with his poor 2020, it’s hard to see him getting more than a year. I would expect him to be signable for 1 year/$5-7M.

[stlcard25]

stlcard25, I think there are more factors with O’Neill’s performance to chalk it up as completely due to poor BABIP. The BBs are up slightly and Ks are down, but so are the barrel and hard hit percentages. That means there’s more than just bad luck involved. How much though? He changed his approach some and that plays into how the ball is coming off the bat. Not all balls in play are equal. I think he’s in an adjustment phase and not sure where he’ll end up. I’ve seen some of these guy eventually revert to their old, more comfortable ways when the new approach doesn’t yield the desired results. Does any of that concern you?

I agree that it’s not 100% bad luck. However, the other guys with BABIPs as low as Tyler’s this year in the last decade, basically, have been either statues or guys who swing noodle bats. Tyler is neither of those. I’ll also add that despite the hard hit and barrel %s being down slightly from some seasons, he’s still 4th among the regulars in both categories (behind Miller, Goldy and Bader in barrels and Miller, Dejong and Goldy in hard hit%) so he’s not hitting all squibbers and two hoppers to the SS.

That said, of course there’s always concern that he will lose patience, reverse course and become the free swinging slugger who hits .210/.260 with 25 HRs and probably doesn’t deserve to start for anyone but the Royals or Pirates. It’ll be up to the coaches to keep on him and tell him that the results will come if he sticks with it, and Tyler to believe that things will turn if he stays the course.

At this point, I still think the most likely outcome is the 110 wRC+ guy with good LF defense, but the 90 wRC+ slugger or 130 wRC+ All Star are still within what I’d call reasonably expected outcomes for him. Throw in the defense and base running and I think it needs to be explored.

[gscottar]

Pederson came into the 2020 season with a career .260 BAbip. He’s at .178 this season after 124 PA’s.

What’s his FA estimate? Calhouns 2/16mil w/option?

That sounds like a reasonable estimate JJ. The thing to keep in mind about Pederson is that he has to be used properly to maximize his strengths. He shouldn’t start every game. He is a platoon bat and I think he and O’Neill could make a dynamite platoon in LF, with Tyler also getting starts in CF. I could see Joc in the 425 AB range and Tyler closer to 500.

[jj-cf-stl]

So how does 1/7mil fit into the 2021 budget? Is it as simple as Yadi’s reduction pays for a Pederson signing? Are the financials even tighter next offseason? Do we need to move salary to do anything at all?

[gscottar]

Assuming that everyone comes back next year the Cardinals are looking at around $160M in obligations right now. I am doubting that DeWitt would want to go much higher than that based on some of his comments about profitability, therefore, someone would have to be traded to create the payroll space. And not someone making the league minimum as that wouldn’t create much space.

[Brian Walton]

Status update. Since his return, Carlson is 3-for-14 (.214) with six strikeouts (43%) and no walks. In fact, he hasn’t walked once in his last 38 plate appearances. Two of his three hits went for extra bases and he drove in four.

[Author]

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