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  • #140976
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    If Soler is “elite”, those who cover the American League did not get the memo. Of the 30 voters making 10 votes each in the 2019 AL MVP voting, Soler got only one of the 300 possible votes – listed as 10th by one voter. (Noting that the two KC voters who saw him every day passed over Soler completely in their top 10s.)

    #140978
    Avatarbccran
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    I’m sorry, but O’Neill needs to play a full season with 48 home runs and 117 RBI before either of you have a point to make.

    #140979
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I had nothing to say about O’Neill here. I simply pointed out once again that overreliance on back of the baseball card stats can lead to misunderstanding player value.

    #140980
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Soler is the kind of player you sign for 1 year and $5 million to be your fill in OF/DH. His one good year doesn’t justify anything more. He’s a poor man’s Ozuna. Brad Milleresque, if you will. Not the centerpiece of a lineup in any way. His defense and base running are nothing to write home about either. There’s no upside there.

    Bc knows this.

    #140988
    Avatarbccran
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    Once again, Soler had 48 home runs, 117 runs batted in, and scored 95 runs in 2019. You guys can talk about the “back of a baseball card” all you want, but Soler produced 212 runs last season. More than any Cardinal. That’s called a MOTO bat. Something we sorely need.

    #140989
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Your middle of the order bat has produced 45 home runs and 157 RBIs in 1291 plate appearances outside his one good year. That’s 21 home runs and 73 RBIs per 600 PA (generally considered a full season’s worth). Tyler O’Neill has produced 21 home runs and 58 RBIs in his career 436 plate appearances. That’s 29 HRs and 80 RBIs per 600 PA. Soler doesn’t play defense well and has had years to prove who he is. He’s a guy with some power who’s erratic and strikes out a ton. O’Neill adds value with the glove and on the base paths, and has some career runway left. You don’t trade value for Solers when you have O’Neills already on the team for dirt cheap.

    I’m not opposed to upgrading the outfield and displacing one of Bader, O’Neill or Carlson. I’m simply opposed to doing so for a marginal or no upgrade at all.

    #140990
    Avatarbccran
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    Okay, got it. We’re to rely on TO as a middle of the order bat. A guy hitting .189 right now with an OBP of .273 and a slugging percentage of .394. Right on.
    And how about Miller as a middle of the order bat? He had 170 plate appearances last year between Cleveland and Philadelphia. In 2018 he had 254 plate appearances between the Rays and the Brewers. Four other teams reserve infielder over the last 2 years is now a middle of the order bat for the Cards? Who’s come down to earth and hitting .212 in September? And you guys dis Soler? And have been dissing Ozuna too?

    #140991
    Avatarforsch31
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    Do you think Soler and his .083 batting average for September would be better?

    Also, you are going to use the 1 year for Soler in which home runs were hit at a record pace throughout the league.

    #140992
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    For 2019-20 Miller has posted a 129 ops+, Soler a 133 ops+. I like that you compare Soler to a DH, because our outfield D would take a negative hit with him out there, vs who we have.

    I’d project Soler at 10.5mil in his arb4 FA-to-be year of 2021.

    #140993
    Avatarforsch31
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    Another thing about O’Neill and Soler, this year they are both on a pace to hit about 34-36 home runs over 600 plate appearances. And O’Neill is younger by several years.

    #140994
    Avatarbccran
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    O’Neill has never produced as a MOTO bat.
    Neither has Miller. Or Thomas. Soler has.

    2019 runs produced –

    Soler – 212
    Goldy – 194
    DeJong – 175
    Wong – 120
    Carp – 105
    Yadi – 102

    I’ve brought up possibilities, Forsch. Instead of shooting down other guys ideas why don’t you come up with some of your own. And not one of those fantasy ideas that will never happen. Go through the arbitration tracker on Sportrac and look at some realistic trade opportunities.
    Concentrating on outfielders and third baseman.

    #140995
    Avatarforsch31
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    Who besides Soler have you brought up? I guarantee you that your Soler trade is a fantasy that will never happen, as well. The Cardinals front office will not trade those assets for Soler who isn’t even a marginal upgrade over what we have now.

    #140996
    Avatarforsch31
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    Where did you get those runs produced figures? How are they calculated?

    #140997
    Avatarbccran
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    I also bright up Mitch Haniger, if he’s healthy. We’ve done a deal with the Mariners. That’s where your boy O’Neill came from. You had zero comment about Haniger.
    Okay, your turn now Forsch.

    Runs produced is a simple calculation of the addition of runs scored and runs batted in. It’s one of the measures used by the Cards in contract valuation.

    #140998
    Avatarforsch31
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    IMO, there is a huge discrepancy in that runs produced formula. Every home run hit produces an extra run produced. As an example, when Soler hits a solo home run he gets an RBI for scoring a run, so if you are using the formula, he gets both an RBI and a run scored but he only produced 1 run on the scoreboard. To make it accurate, you would have to subtract the number of home runs off the total runs produced.

    #140999
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    well, he did say it was simple 🙂

    #141000
    Avatarbccran
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    Just one measure used by the Cardinals. Another is total bases.

    #141001
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Sure, they have a room full of sabreheads and they use a fanasty ball stat like runs produced for contract evaluations. I ain’t buyin it. Total bases? that’s slg% in its crude form that ignores AB’s / ratios. Believe what you want, but don’t try selling it here.

    It does surprise me that anyone who points out Bader and O’Neills K’s constantly as you do, would target a player in Soler who led the AL in K’s last season.

    #141002
    Avatarforsch31
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    Bccran, I’m not looking for the Soler’s. I’m looking for the Matt Holliday’s and Scott Rolen’s. If you can’t get one of them, you go for the Kelenic’s and Kirilloff’s

    #141003
    Avatarbccran
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    Just trying to come up with some ideas, jj. How about Haniger? Any comments on him? Or how about Renato Nunez who’s about to get more expensive for the low payroll Orioles. Any thoughts, 25? Forsch?

    #141008
    Avatargscottar
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    I think a more sensible solution would be Joc Pederson. He could be had a on relatively cheap one or two year deal and wouldn’t cost us any prospects. He hit 36 HR last year. I would like him as a platoon bat in LF with O’Neill with Tyler sliding over to CF on the days that Joc is in LF. Tyler needs to play everyday.

    This would also eliminate the need for Edman to play OF. Edman should be the everyday 3B next year. Carp would move to a DH platoon role with Ravelo or whoever. This is important because it would reduce the chances of Carp’s 2022 option is vesting. If we are still paying Carp $18.5M in 2022 I will pull my hair out.

    For 2021 we would have:

    1. Wong 2B
    2. Edman 3B
    3. Goldy 1B
    4. Pederson LF
    5. DeJong SS
    6. O’Neill CF
    7. Fowler/Carlson RF
    8. Carp/Ravelo DH
    9. Molina

    I am not sure about the order but something like that. Bader would get some time in CF also. Carlson might start in Memphis then come up in May or June. I would let Brad Miller and Wieters walk.

    Then in 2022 we will be done with the contracts of Carp, Fowler, A. Miller, Wong, and probably CMart. Who knows about Yadi or Waino. We should have enough payroll space by 2022 to do whatever we want as long as Mo doesn’t pull one of his mindless contract extensions. Gorman, Montero, Liberatore, Thompson, and others will be knocking on the door by then also.

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatargscottar.
    #141015
    Avatarbccran
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    Great idea, gscottar, and excellent post.
    There are some interesting possibilities out there. Proven major leaguers are so much easier to project. I’m all for building from within, but carefully doing it, and feeding the youngsters in on a measured basis. Not shoe horning almost your whole outfield (#2-#5) with unproven guys.

    #141020
    Avatarbccran
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    Okay, Forsch. What do you think about Kelenic and Kirilloff?

    #141023
    Avatarbccran
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    Arozarena – .279/.360/.651/1.011
    Bader – .207/.321/.402/.723
    O’Neill – .189/.273/.394/.666
    Thomas – .111/.200/.250/.450

    Did we choose to include Arozarena in the trade, or did the Rays insist on him?

    #141063
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    bccran, if a small sample is enough to judge from, you better not look at Carlson’s numbers. Also, looking at Voit’s first year plus in the majors with the Cardinals, it’s no wonder they traded him.

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