Offense

[858booyah]

People have disagreements all the time. Trolling I find is mostly a cute way for one poster to take some heat off when they can’t handle things and the other poster usually feeds off it.

My advice is that both posters (and I’m going to use a letterkenny references) ” Give yer ball a tug” and ” take 10-15% off squirrely Dan”. Just enjoy the sight and all the wonderful people we’ve got here.

[bccran]

Then let’s look at the full season of 2019.

Against LHP – .177/.255/.395/.640
Against RHP – .215/.334/.359/.693

Total of 406 PAs. Much larger sample. Actually, a tad better last year against RHP.

[forsch31]

And he has a career split of:

Against LHP – .265/.339/.522/.861
Against RHP – .222/.315/.352/.667

Since he is only 26 years old, this is probably the best sample. That is based on 1007 plate appearances.

[Brian Walton]

In the minors, Bader’s history was hitting left-handed pitchers much better than right. So the general tendency has remained over time.

[bccran]

2017 – 92PAs/.235/.283/.376/.659
2018 – 427PAs/.264/.334/.422/.756
2019 – 406PAs/.205/.314/.366/.680
2020 – 82PAs/.221/.341/.485/.827

Some uptick in this year’s small sample numbers (small sample, as some posters pointed out)

[jj-cf-stl]

The key with Bader is not his handedness splits, in a 15 PA’s split vs LHP’s in 2020, it’s his developing ability to use all fields.

He used to be a pull hitter who was shifted against. Shift on him now and he thanks you. He’s developing as Wong has, and remember how long it took Wong to make this adjustment. Harrisons 1000 ish PA’s is two full seasons as a qualifier, and he has 3 seasons control left.

He’s a career 94 ops+ with outstanding D and you can see he’s continuing to develop. The best is yet to come as he enters his prime years imo, just as it has been for Wong (95 ops+).

[bccran]

Hope that’s so. It would be great to have a productive CFer, both defensively and offensively, for years to come.

[jj-cf-stl]

mudville, back to “can Bader be his current .827 ops in the foreseeable future?”

I seriously doubt it. He’s currently a career .722, Wong .719, I just like that comparison. But, for his age 26 season until today, Wong has posted a .759 / 104 ops+. I think Bader gets there, if not surpasses it a little. I’ll take that for elite up the middle defenders, won’t you?

[bccran]

He has a way to go, but it would be great if Bader becomes an elite center fielder.

[stlcard25]

Bader is already an elite center fielder. Just not with the bat.

[jj-cf-stl]

It may be too old school in a modern game, but outfield D still matters greatly to me. We saw a 4 run swing in just todays game. Dean cost us 2 runs in LF and Bader saved us 2 runs on a layout catch in CF.

Those same two players did not provide 4 offensive runs today. Their D mattered more than their bats, and usually does in a game where batters fail 75% of the time.

[bccran]

He’s a fine center fielder. Now, if he can only prove consistency over time with his bat.

[14NyquisT]

Bader struggled the first shot he got at Memphis in ’16… his numbers were similar to what that are now except his OPS are higher now. Maybe he just needs more ABs to get up to speed in St Louis although it seems it is taking a while. He is getting more of an opportunity because of his glove and the Cards need for a CF. I wonder where he would be without his superior glove.

[bccran]

I wonder where Bader would be if Carlson had better offensive results in his short time up. And I wonder where Bader will be when Carlson is truly ready for the big show (soon). Fowler is here throughout 2021.

[jj-cf-stl]

Carlson needs to show he’s not just another pull hitter, so I question how “soon”. The shift matters. Dylan did a fine job going up the middle, sadly there was usually an infielder shifted there.

[bccran]

Good point. I think shifts in MLB should be banned. Not the way Abner designed it.

[jj-cf-stl]

Back in the day we always heard “go up the middle”, ok, but now we need to add “and over the infield”. It’s as if the up the middle value has shifted to opposite field value, if the shift is on.

Maybe I’m in LF on this but I see today we’re 25th in HR%, we’re simply not very good at hitting over the shift. So, maybe away from the shift is the way to go? For everyone, not just Dylan. We saw how the shift affected Carpenter, but also saw Kolten make the adjustment and prove if you beat the shift, you’ll have a better season.

I’ve put a lot of eyeball attention on which Cardinals are using the opposite field this season, and really we’re pretty good at it. When I have time I’d like to check the hitters and see if there is a correlation between struggling batters and low opposite field %.

[bccran]

I’ve seen it a few times, but unfortunately not as a general rule.

[forsch31]

jj, surprisingly, the splits say that going the opposite way gives a lower success than pulling the ball. Here are the teams’ splits in 2020 per Baseball Reference:

RHB:
Pulled – .396/.393/.763/1.155
Up Middle – .327/.321/.496/.817
Opposite Field – .250/.240/.431/.671

LHB:
Pulled – .294/.292/.531/.823
Up Middle – .343/.341/.490/.831
Opposite Field – .297/.292/.453/.745

Although, I haven’t found a breakdown by whether or not there is a shift on.

[bccran]

Crucial doubleheader against your nearest competitor for a playoff spot. Cards have scored 3 runs in 16 innings. Sad.

[stlcard25]

It is what it is at this point, bc. Perhaps you can voice your displeasure to Mo personally the next time you see him. Or maybe you’ll be lucky and they’ll can him.

Either way, your best choice would be to simply let it go and focus on the things the team does do well. They are in playoff position for a reason. A couple, really…pitching and defense.

[mudville]

Agree.

[bccran]

I’ll try, 25 and Mudville, but as a former college pitcher I feel for this staff that isn’t getting the run support it deserves.
Way too much pressure on them. And are you really happy making the playoffs with a .500 record? And think we’ll go far in the playoffs against teams that have a lot more offensive gas in their tanks?

[stlcard25]

And are you really happy making the playoffs with a .500 record?

Yes. I’d much rather face the Cubs in round 1 (who I think we are better than) and Braves in round 2 (coin flip) as a .500 club than the Padres in round 1 and Dodgers in round 2. I’d give us a 67% chance in a series with Chicago, 50% with Atlanta, 30% with San Diego and 20% with LA.

[Brian Walton]

I sense that some are taking for granted the hardships that the 2020 club has faced and still is. Step back and take a breath. Consider what happened with missing more than two weeks, the players sick with the virus, compressed schedule and the injuries. I think most objective observers would be satisfied with a .500 record and a playoff spot. From there, anything could happen.

All the over and over talk about how bad the offense is and how they should have done things differently in building the team leads nowhere but in circles. For me, that is a subject for the winter. Right now, the team that they have is who will play. All the kvetching and the what-iffing is wasted energy.

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