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As a team, the Cards are walking 11.6% of the time and striking out 20.6% of the time. They have a grand total of 25 home runs in 28 games (0.89 HR/gm). For comparison, here’s a handy list of those stats from 2015 til 2020:
BB%
2020-11.6
2019-9.1
2018-8.5
2017-9.5
2016-8.5
2015-8.2K%
2020-20.6
2019-23.0
2018-22.3
2017-21.7
2016-21.2
2015-20.6HR Rate/gm
2020-0.89
2019-1.30
2018-1.27
2017-1.21
2016-1.39
2015-0.85So no, I would not say that the team has been “swinging for the fences.” They’ve been very patient and if anything, swinging for the fences far less than in years past. I like the approach somewhat, as it leads to lots of base runners. It’s gonna be up to those hitters like Carp, Yadi and the young OF to get it done more often to drive them in.
25 –
O’Neill got to the majors because of his ability to hit home runs. He’s swinging for the fences every time up there. It’s what he knows they want.
Bader came from his home in Bronxville, New York, to attend the University of Florida in the sun belt. His freshman session, he started and hit 1 home run. He hit 2 home runs his sophomore season. Then his junior year, his draft season, he exploded to 17 home runs. Scouts love the long ball. It caused him to be drafted by the Cardinals in the 3rd round in 2015. In 2016, between Memphis and Peoria, he hit 19 home runs in a 5 month season.
In 2017, at Memphis, he hit 20 home runs in 123 games. It helped him get a ticket to St. Louis. MO loves the long ball. So between the golden perm flowing in CF when his hat flies off as he makes a fine catch, the cutsy bat flip, the upper body shimmy, the hip grind, and the way he goes all out with his swing I see someone who enjoys attention. And hitting a bomb gets just that. I’m not an expert after playing 4 years of D1 baseball, but when I see Bader taking a vicious cut at those high fast balls, IMHO that’s a young guy swinging for the fences and hoping for that home run trot.Bc,
You made a sweeping generalization of the entire team: “Tinky. Take a look at the rest of the lineup and tell me guys aren’t swinging for the fences. And that includes Bader and O’Neill.”
I just showed that, in fact, they are not. The team is putting the ball in play more often and not hitting HRs nearly so much.
O’Neill’s K rates are down from his career, from 34.5% to 23.8%. His BB rate is up to 10.7% from 6.9%. I’d say his approach has been more contact oriented as well. He’s just had horrible luck with balls in play. To wit, if he had just his career average BABIP (.332) right now and all those hits were singles, he’d have a line of .268/.364/.433. Is that amazing? No. But it would be above average overall and decent for a corner OF.
Bader’s numbers look the same as his career. He is what he is…can’t really recognize or hit breaking pitches. So he ends up swinging at the same high heat that most every MLB batter falls for. I can live with that from your #9 hitter.
bc, I agree that Bader and O’Neill swing for the fences most of the time. And I am not very high on them, especially O’Neill. And we gave up a good left handed starting pitcher in Marco Gonzales to get him. I hated that trade. But at least we aren’t paying those two guys a king’s ransom as we would’ve had to do to keep Ozuna.
And we have lots of guys who do a good job of situational hitting, e.g., Goldschmidt, Molina, Edman, Miller, Wong. I know Carlson is struggling, but he has the look of a guy will develop into a good situational hitter as well.
For right now, I’d play Bader more because of his defense and speed, as those assets make up somewhat for his lack of hitting ability. I just don’t think O’Neill is ever going to pan out.
I’ll pretty much stand by my statement, 25. At least from my perspective, I see the following taking thunderous swings –
Goldy, DeJong, Carpenter, O’Neill, and Bader. Yadi goes with the pitch and takes what they give him. Edman ditto. Same with Miller. Wong has converted to that.I’ll pretty much stand by my statement, 25. At least from my perspective, I see the following taking thunderous swings –
I dunno, I occasionally find home runs to be useful for scoring runs. Not everyone is a plinking singles hitter.
It’s interesting that you rag on a group of 5 who include 3 of the 5 above average hitters on our team and praise 4, only one of whom is above average.
It seems to me that sabermetrics and especially the extended ones favor XBHs and especially HRs. Howadays a single with no one on base is looked on as important as a gimme putt for par. And then those featured reel clips are what today’s players are looking to make. Who can blame them?
For those who are enamored/obsessed with Ozuna he will be a FA again after this year. Maybe the Cards will bring him back and all will be right with the world again.
Not at all, 25. Goldy is supposed to hit home runs. So is DeJong. They should be swinging hard. Carp got his extension by hitting home runs. He’s a corner infielder, and I have no problem with him swinging hard. Same with O’Neill.
That’s some pretty condemning evidence on Carp. Which is sad, cause he’s one of my favorite Cardinals. I hope he can find a way to turn it around, but it doesn’t look good. I’d imagine he will be sitting next year to keep his option from vesting if he can’t get it together.
Pretty good article this morning by BenFred in the STL Post Dispatch on the state of the Cardinals outfield. Recommended reading if you haven’t already read it.
Personally, I am weary of the Luis Robert second guessing and we are going to hear it over and over for the next 10 years or so. It gets beaten into the ground for what benefit? Clicks, I guess. Stirring up those who are not weary of reading about same story for the 100th time. I would almost rather rehash not signing Ozu… never mind about that last part! 😉
I think Carp has to be benched. It’s a lot of money to sit. But it’s the only thing to do.
1. Wong 2B
2. Edman 3B
3. Goldschmidt 1B
4. Miller DH
5. DeJong SS
6. Carlson RF
7. Molina C
8. Thomas LF
9. Bader CFI put Carlson 6th because I think he would benefit from a veteran bat behind him and also splitting up the 3 young OF at the bottom.
Carpenter, Ravelo, O’Neill, KniznerI said in a post somewhere in 2019 the Cardinals should pick up Miller when he was cut loose by Cleveland. Don’t know if it would have panned out the same, but I hope he keeps hitting because this team as it is now needs him desperately.
There’s no way I’d start Carlson other than doubleheaders the rest of the year. He’s overmatched and it shows. O’Neill still is hitting the ball decently, and his fortunes should change soon. I’d bench Carp too and play O’Neill, Bader and Thomas with Carlson mixing in late or for twinbills.
stlcard25 said:
I’d bench Carp too and play O’Neill, Bader and Thomas with Carlson mixing in late or for twinbills.
This would seem to give the team the best chance to achieve their 2020 objective – sorting out the outfield for 2021. We already know that Carlson will be in the picture, and the other three all have their pluses and minuses. Perhaps it is time to shake it out, and it seems like the best way to do that would be to play them all as much as possible.
Would not playing every day during the final three weeks stunt Carlson’s development? That is the only possible concern from the outfield perspective that I could see with this scenario. Obviously, to make this happen, the tough decision about Carpenter would be needed. (Does them losing Fowler make it easier or harder to bench Carpenter?)
Seems a lot like what I wrote about the other day as the best way to maximize results in 2020 – and at that time, they still had Fowler’s production in the lineup! 😉
Runs scored in 2020
Fernando Tatis, Jr. 39
Mike Yastrzemski 32
Manny Machado 32
Dansby Swanson 32
Trevor Story 31
St. Louis Cardinals OFers 35— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) September 4, 2020
BW –
I could care less about what BenFred said about Robert. It’s what he said in the rest of the article about the state of our outfield that I noted. Like the unimpressive OPS our OF had in 2019 at .755. And how it’s even lower this season at .700. Even with Fowler having a good year. And of the 87 outfielders who have played 20 or more games, Fowler is the only Cardinal in the top 35. But especially the following quote – “outfield experimentation was going to be a theme of this season whether it was 162 games long or or 60. Halfway through, the front office’s hypothesis seems flawed. Outfield shopping could be the only solution this offseason.
Seems like it was said on this Board that going into 2020 with so many young unproven guys in the OF was a big risk.He did mention Arozarena’s home run the other night against the Yankees. He also had the following quote – “a front office that let cleanup hitter Ozuna walk
told it’s fans there were reasons to believe the answer for the lost production from an already suspect offense would come from within. Wrong. At least so far.”bccran, if you recommend people read an article, it is courteous to provide the link. That way, people would actually know what you are talking about. By the description you provided, it would be hard to find the article, since this is the title:
“BenFred: Cardinals had big swing and miss on emerging White Sox star Luis Robert”
P.S. I suspect BenFred’s target audience is not die-hard Cardinals fans. Pretty much every point he made has already been discussed in some detail here, except maybe the dumb idea of trying Luke Voit in the OF because they did it with Matt Adams (and it failed). It is amazing when second-guessing how clear one’s vision can be, but that goes with the role of columnist, I think.
Seems like it was said on this Board that going into 2020 with so many young unproven guys in the OF was a big risk.
At 28 games, the sample size is still way too small to make any sort of definitive statements. If two of the four have a nice couple of weeks and the others stay pat, we could have three above average offensive outfielders. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s too early to gloat.
Not to mention, there are other parts of the game. Carlson has been a +28.2 UZR/150 fielder, Bader +21.7, O’Neill +11.1 and Thomas a +40.3, an insane number but a small sample. Ozuna is so bad that he’s a DH, at -21.2. Over the course of 60 games that will mitigate some, but it’s still factor. Hey, maybe they will sign him this off-season and send one of those young guys packing.
bccran said:
Seems like it was said on this Board that going into 2020 with so many young unproven guys in the OF was a big risk.
Of course, it was a risk. You shouldn’t need BenFred to validate that. So far, it hasn’t worked out. Duh!
Again, what do you want DONE about it – other than complain about decisions of the past that cannot be redone?
IMO, the answer is “nothing can be done right now,” which is why this is really a topic for the off-season, not now. But when Robert does well and the current outfield struggles, more columns get written.
I’ve given thoughts a number of times, BW, on what should have been done and what should be done. No sense in being redundant. One principle I adhere to in the management of my company. Don’t complain unless you have a recommendation to offer.
I ask for that and expect it of myself.bccran said:
I’ve given thoughts a number of times, BW, on what should have been done and what should be done.
I am most aware of the “past” part. Please summarize the “present and future” parts. All that sticks in my mind is your preferred 2020 OF of Ravelo-Carlson-Dean. Thanks.
IMO, the answer is “nothing can be done right now,” which is why this is really a topic for the off-season, not now
That is correct Brian which is what I have been saying for a long time. This is a money issue. I don’t know why people can’t understand that. The reason Ozuna or some other established hitter is not here right now has less to do with O’Neill and Bader and more to do with Leake, Cecil, Fowler, Carp, A. Miller, and Mikolas. It is about the money. It is about the money. It is about the money.
Unfortunately it may not look much better next year either. We have to get rid of some these contracts before we see another significant acquisition. I don’t know how many times that has to be stated. Oh well, all of this debate keeps the board going I guess.
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