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That’s funny Rat. There is no way Carpenter will be the starting third baseman unless Arenado is hurt.
Yes, a sandwich pick. Let’s play this out in how it is most likely to go.
Odds of Arenado opting out after 2021? I am going to say 5%.
Odds of Arenado opting out after 2022! I am going to say 20% and that is probably too high.Therefore, in all likelihood, the Rockies are choosing to fork over $50M for prospects who will be appearing in a supporting role with the possible exception of Torres but he is years away. That seems like a very steep price to pay.
If Arenado has a hot start to the 21 season they could have flipped him July for a better deal than that or let him walk after the season and owe nothing.
I don’t think Arenado would opt out from us either, but if he was significantly disgruntled enough, he could well walk from Colorado after 2021. With a solid season, there’s no reason to think he would get much less than Springer got in 6 years/150M. Essentially he’d lose $15M, maybe, but get a chance to play for the team he wanted to.
Anyway, running the math…either the Rockies pay $35M to Arenado in a season where they are going nowhere with a chance that he stays on and costs them another $165M, and if not they get a sandwich pick, or they pay $50M to the Cards and get 4 potentially useful players back. Say the four are Gomber, Rondon, Baker and Torres. Gomber has 5 years of control and Rondon, Baker and Torres have 6. So for the difference of $15M, would you trade a sandwich pick for that? Essentially you need to get 2-3 WAR total to break even on the trade (the sandwich pick will be less than this but assume $3M value on that). Even if only one of the starters works out and one of the position players becomes a backup on the MLB team, you are probably going to get 5-10 WAR from that combo over 6 years.
That doesn’t discount what happens to the trade value if Arenado has a cold start to the year or gets injured again. I just don’t think that the idea that they could have gotten a ton better deal is based in reality. People are overvaluing Arenado’s surplus value (which is -$40 to -$50M) and what kind of trade bind that puts you in. It really comes down to whether you would rather have a sandwich pick and the $15M extra or the players they got from the Cards. I’d take the players, easily.
25, you and JJ are two of the smartest posters on this board and I respect your opinions but I can’t squint enough to give the Rockies much benefit of the doubt on this deal. You laid out an impressive argument but what you are basically describing is that the Rockies took a horrible situation and made the best of it.
I would argue they took a horrible situation and made it worse or in the best case scenario didn’t improve it. And the worst part for them is that they created the horrible situation in the first place. If Arenado’s contract is indeed $40m-$50M underwater, whose fault is that? And who created or allowed the relationship between the front office and Arenado to become so toxic?
The Rockie front office just got exploited by Mo. Mo and his crew waited patiently for almost two years then pounced when the Rockies finally threw up their hands and gave up.
Mo does better when he is patient. His quick-draws haven’t worked out too well recently. He usually is a bit panicky but this one should end up a plus. I’m still waiting for the entire final trade details.
Mo does better when he is patient. His quick-draws haven’t worked out too well recently. He usually is a bit panicky but this one should end up a plus. I’m still waiting for the entire final trade details.
ps. this is the 756th comment on this thread…. and I’m just one of 50 fans commenting.
IMHO, trying to explain this trade with logic is never really going to work. What we’re witnessing is a meltdown by multi-billionaire.
I would argue they took a horrible situation and made it worse or in the best case scenario didn’t improve it. And the worst part for them is that they created the horrible situation in the first place. If Arenado’s contract is indeed $40m-$50M underwater, whose fault is that? And who created or allowed the relationship between the front office and Arenado to become so toxic?
They made a bunch of ill-advised free agent moves, like Ian Desmond and their high-priced relievers. Then, they refused to spend more.
It wasn’t the Arenado deal by itself that made it a toxic situation. It was their failures in free agency. A situation we know all too well (see Fowler, Cecil, etc)
Cecil?????
Speaking of Cecil, he’s gone, right?
And refresh my memory here. Dexter Fowler is a free agent after this year, correct?
And Matt Carpenter, what exactly is his story? Is he a free agent after this year?
1) yes, he gone
2) yes, FA-to-be
3) 628 PA’s to automatically vest a 2022 contract of 18.5mil, if I’m remembering correctly, or a 2mil club option for 2022I dont see any way Carpenter is going to get 628 plate appearances. Unless there are big time injuries almost all season long to Avocado and Goldschmidt.
So, in other words, Carpenter is gone after this year. Unless he has a renaissance year in the limited amount of playing time he is going to get. Can we expect a trade involving Carpenter at some point in time between NOW and the trade deadline?
r/Esteemed Rat
We can expect Carpenter to be traded only if there’s another team that thinks he’s worth trading for…
If the Cardinals get enough ABs from Carpenter to re-establish his value, it better be because of a DH in the NL this year. If he re-establishes his value, I doubt they would trade him. He would be too valuable as a DH. However, if O’Neill is raking and Bader is hitting good, I would hope the Cardinals would trade him just to get something for him.
I agree he doesn’t accumulate 628 PA’s.
If he has a renaissance year, we probably keep him and make a push for another ring. The FO can always address the club option next winter. The 2018 Carpenter batting fifth sure would help.
What if Matt Carpenter beats out Arenado for the 3rdbase job in Spring Training? We just paid a whole lot for a backup infielder/pinch-hitter.
Can you imagine how good Carp would have to be for this to happen?! And even then, Carp would play at 2nd. But I like your optimism!!
Besides, ESPN has Carp as backup, so that’s final.
Ryan Spilborghs, who is a Rockie broadcaster, was on MLB Radio about two hours ago. He said that this trade was catastrophic for the Rockies. That was a direct quote.
To his credit he didn’t try to spin it any other way.
This is just spitballing Ratsbuddy, but would you start the season with this lineup, just to see if it would produce? Would you give a month-ish to see if the high dollar boys (Fowler/Carp) would produce?
RF Fowler S
SS DeJong R
3B Arenado R
1B Goldschmidt R
DH Carpenter L
C Molina R
LF Carlson S
CF Bader R
2B Edman SAnother problem this trade creates for the Rockies is what to do with Trevor Story. Do you think he wants to sign an extension there now? I don’t.
jj-cf-stl wrote:
This is just spitballing Ratsbuddy, but would you start the season with this lineup, just to see if it would produce? Would you give a month-ish to see if the high dollar boys (Fowler/Carp) would produce?
RF Fowler S
SS DeJong R
3B Arenado R
1B Goldschmidt R
DH Carpenter L
C Molina R
LF Carlson S
CF Bader R
2B Edman SAre we for sure going to have the DH in the NL in 2021? I thought it had already been decided that most likely we wont?
But if we do, jj-cf-stl, yes, I could see Fowler hitting in the leadoff spot. Its his walk year and he probably wants another big contract so he might have a good 2021.
Plus switch DeJong and Carlson and I could see that lineup.
r/Esteemed Rat <~~~~~who just trailed the Cubs 4-1 in the last of the 9th with two outs in a modified 1971 St. Louis Strat-O-Matic Replay but won the game 5-4 in 12 innings.
DH still under consideration, currently being used as a bargaining chip.
Fowler vs RHP’s, Edman at leadoff vs LHP’s (career .361 OBP vs lefties, .992 ops), allows benching Fowler vs lefties and backfill in the outfield with Thomas, Williams, etc batting 9th.
It moves Carlson, Bader, Edman down in the lineup where the pressure is off and gives the $ boys a last chance to earn their big bucks, otherwise Carlson and Edman move back up to batting 1, 2…
All parties, including commissioner's office, the union, the teams, and Arenado have continued working today — all with the intent to finalize complex trade to the #Cardinals. 'The idea is to make sure this happens,' says one source, confirmed by another. https://t.co/384I2SL3C9
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) February 1, 2021
Why does #Rockies Nolan Arenado want out? This from Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci: Since Arenado made his first All-Star team in 2015, the Rockies have spent $281.6 million on 12 free agents. Virtually all of their decisions have been disasters.
— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) February 1, 2021
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