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From Jeff Passan at ESPN.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30807033/what-delayed-spring-training-look-everyone-involved-mlb
The Rockies’ confusing path on ArenadoHow did Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals come together?eff Passan breaks down in detail how Nolan Arenado’s impending trade from the Rockies to the Cardinals came together.
Arenado’s situation could have played out many different ways. Yet, somehow the Rockies picked the path costliest to them, greatly confusing rival evaluators.“I don’t know what the hell they were thinking,” said one.
To review: Arenado has six years and $199 million on his current deal, with the opportunity to opt out of the contract at the end of the upcoming season. Arenado had made it clear he wanted out. His relationship with GM Jeff Bridich was perceived to be a problem. And Arenado also had a full no-trade clause.
Earlier this winter, executives in other organizations judged the conditions for making a decent Arenado trade to be awful for the Rockies. His contract suddenly looked very onerous in the face of the budget cutbacks around baseball. Plus, his brief showing in the 60-game 2020 season was not good.
As rival officials saw it, here are just a few lines from the menu of how the Rockies could’ve handled this:
Baseball Tonight podcast with Buster Olney
ESPN’s Buster Olney leads the discussion of the latest news and notes around baseball with the game’s top analysts. Listen1. They could have waited. They could have told Arenado that the conditions for a trade were bad and that they had no intention of giving him away. While there would have been inherent fear of the public specter of Arenado feuding publicly with the organization, the Rockies understand just how competitive he is and how, with the opt-out, he needed a big 2021 season. If the Rockies kept Arenado, then, at worst, the relationship would’ve been tense. At best, he might’ve played well and been a trade target in July. Perhaps he would have opted out of his deal altogether, saving the team the cost of the last five years of his contract.
Additionally: The public-relations impact of a spat with an unhappy Arenado would’ve been mitigated because the Rockies aren’t expected to contend.
2. The Rockies could have approached Arenado earlier this month and told him: Would you like to opt out of your contract right now? This way, they would’ve put the weight of the fight back on his shoulders. If Arenado said yes, then the Rockies would’ve saved all that money that had been committed to him. If Arenado said no, then it would’ve made it easier for the Rockies to wait instead of making a bad deal.
But Colorado’s front office didn’t do any of that. In the end, the Rockies basically gave away their biggest star for little in return while eating a staggering $50 million of the money owed to him. The Rockies effectively funded what is believed to be a one-year, $15 million extension given to Arenado in order to get him to waive his no-trade clause.
Arenado basically had no hard leverage to force a deal. Yet he wound up being traded, at a staggering, lingering cost to the Rockies — while getting even more money. For Arenado and his agent, Joel Wolfe, it’s a staggering, shocking victory. For the Rockies, it’s an almost incomprehensible set of gaffes.
I’m interested to see where the expected 50mil is distributed during the six seasons COL negotiated.
Front end, back end, or a percentage of his annual salary over the 6 seasons he signed with COL?
COL may want to structure a buyout of 25% of each seasons salary that Arenado is with STL. If he opts out after 2021 the 50mil becomes 8.75mil, after 2022 COL has paid 17.5mil, or the full 50mil over 6 seasons. That would actually seem fairest, if Arenado opts out.
It’s hard to get into the Rox GM’s head, but I see this trade as two teams swapping with their surpluses. The Cards had a surplus of decent pitching prospects and #5 pitching on the cusp, and the Rockies had a surplus of platinum glove all-stars entering their peak year.
I listened to the Front Office show on MLB Sirius XM this morning with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden. (Yes I know the jokes. If they are so smart why are they ex-GM’s”? Ha Ha) Whatever. They know baseball. All GM’s becomes ex-GM eventually.
Anyway, they were both flabbergasted at the deal from the Rockies perspective, assuming that the deal is as rumored. They both stated this was the most bungled trade in the last 25 years and wondered why didn’t the Rockies wait until July 31 to see if they could get a better deal or just let him opt out next winter and save $50M if this is the best package they could get.
The entire industry just can’t seem to believe this is happening. Rockie fans are already trying to urge other fans not to buy tickets or watch on tv. A few Cub fans I have talked to this weekend are also shocked. Their heads are about to explode at this perceived heist.
Bowden and Duquette also said that, if this deal is as reported, Cardinal fans should never complain about Mozeliak again. They also said that Mo may end up in jail for theft. 🙂
The explanation is simple. It’s human emotions. The Monfort brothers went past their boiling point and blew a gasket. No other explanation can explain this. I don’t even want to think about what might have gone on among the people involved on the Rockies’ side.
GS, the lens we view this trade through, in years of club control, is very important in establishing an opinion of the value received by STL.
I am of the rental camp. There is an expected opt out after 2021, and that is the total length of the stl guaranteed club control. I’m not presuming to know about future club control, but do reserve the right to re-evaluate the trade again, once we know each opt out has not been exercised.
Many articles I’ve read all seem to be taking the 7yr view now, which I consider extremely presumptive on the authors part. I do understand the fleecing opinion now by others, but only Arenado has control of those seasons which could make the trade fit that narrative.
JJ, realistically what would it take for a 31-32 year old Arenado to opt out of those two years? He would be essentially opting out from 6 years and $179M or 5 years and $144M. To me, he would have to be coming off an MVP type of year for him to get $30M+ on the open market. If that’s the case, then the Cards got two MVP level years (probably 12 total WAR or more) for (let’s say) Gomber, Rondon, Torres and Baker.
If he doesn’t opt out, the Cards would owe what sounds like 7 years and $164M for Arenado. That’s not that much for a guy who will probably be worth at least 15-20 WAR over those 7 seasons, and could be worth 30 or more.
Anyway, I don’t think it’s necessarily a complete fleecing. The Rockies are getting useful, mostly near to MLB ready players back who have a good shot to contribute. They are also getting a potential star in Torres, but at a high risk of that not happening. It’s possible the Rockies even get close to the same WAR over the 5-6 years of control they are getting from their guys that the Cards get from Arenado. Yet even if that’s the case, the consolidation of value in Arenado makes the trade still a win for St Louis. We have money to spend going forward. What we don’t have are still in their prime stars to go along with the core we have set (Flaherty, Hudson, Goldy, Dejong, Carlson, perhaps Libby and Gorman in the next year or two) up for a run atop the NL Central the next few years.
I agree with your math and expected values. The expected trade today looks fair to both clubs for the first season.
If Arenado had no opt outs do you think COL accepts Gomber and mid-tiers for 6 seasons control of Arenado? And pays down 25% of their contract?
The opt out is why Gorman or top 100 prospects are not involved, and appears both clubs are acknowledging this with the rumored trade, even if the media ignores the club control issues in articles.
I will need Arenado to SHO-ME he’s staying longer than a season or two before I view this trade through a 7yr lens.
I not see this deal as being nearly as bad for the Rox as the media comments indicate. Kicking in the $50M is a bit of a head-scratcher, but that has to be contingent in some part on Nolan staying in St. Louis past one year. No way they are giving the Cards $50M without any strings attached.
Also, Nolan likely was gone after ‘21, so this way they get something for him. You never know about prospects – sometimes they are better than expected.
And it is not like Arenado was any great shakes in 2020. Plus he had an injury. Hard to say how his productoion will be from here on. Will he go the route of Albert Pujols? I think he will bounce back, but again you cannot say absolutely that he will. And whatever happens, he figures to be on the downside of his career from here on out.
Unless we are handing over the next Arozarena, and the one after that, it is the biggest heist since the last time I bought a beer at Busch.
Trending good news.
The Cardinals-Rockies trade has not yet been formally approved by MLB or the MLBPA, but source says the expectation is that it will be completed today and Nolan Arenado will be headed to St. Louis.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) February 1, 2021
If Arenado opts out after 2021 or 2022 in St. Louis it is still a bad trade for the Rockies in my opinion. The prospects mentioned are not worth $50M. They would have been better off keeping Arenado for 2021 and let him opt out and not owe the $50M.
If I am a Rockie fan I would want my front office cleaned out immediately.
Do we know yet who is heading to Colorado? Its been almost four days now, surely the word is out by now. Or will be forthcoming soon.
r/Esteemed Rat
With Arenado around it should take some of the pressure for the younger guys to swing for the fences. The FO wanted to see HRs from them period, defense wasn’t a factor because O’Neill-Bader-Thomas-Carlson-Dean are all capable outfielders. This also applies to DeJong.
rats, we know the names for sure, but we are holding them back from you. 😉
Seriously, like the last tweet I posted says, the deal may be finalized today. Whenever that will be, that will be when we will get the details. Try to be patient!
GS, if COL sends 50mil payable for the 2021 season, I’m with ya, they got fleeced.
I don’t expect the deal to be structured that way. 25% of Arenado’s annual salary, as long as he remains a Cardinal, is the fairest structure. (edit- excluding the additional season stl may tack on)
The Stanton trade had a back end payment, payable only if he didn’t opt out.
JJ, if the $50M is spread out over the length of the contract that makes it better for the Rockies but my point is they could have avoided that altogether by keeping Arenado and allowing him to opt out after 2021. If he didn’t opt out then keep him and try to find a better deal.
From Jeff Gordon’s piece in the P-D.
Here’s how folks assessed this swap:
Matt Martell, SI.com: “Years from now, what transpired in the baseball world on Jan. 29, 2021, will be remembered as the Friday Night Heist. The Cardinals held up the aimless Rockies for their best player, made Colorado fork over $50 million to cover their tracks and left behind an undisclosed bundle of mid-tier prospects for their troubles. Pleasure doing business. Of course, the intricacies of the Nolan Arenado trade are far more complex than Wild West stagecoach robberies of Colorado lore. Among other things, the two teams still need to sort out: Arenado’s no-trade clause, his opt-outs (at least one, probably two), the deferred payments, a possible extension and the specific St. Louis farmhands heading to Denver. The league and the players association also have to get involved and sign off on the shakedown. The trade … likely won’t become official for a few days, but the framework of this blockbuster is brewed, with Arenado leaving the only team he’s ever known. The deal is yet another frustrating example of a billionaire owner sacrificing competitive integrity at the altar of the Efficiency Gods. It’s the third time within the last 12 months that a team has traded its homegrown star on a Hall of Fame trajectory because it callously and dubiously concluded that the face of its franchise would be more valuable playing for another team.”
Ben Clemens, FanGraphs: “What’s the big picture of this trade? For the Rockies, it’s an unmitigated disaster. Arenado was supposed to be the team’s generational star. They managed to sign him to an extension, gave him an opt out so that he could leave if he didn’t care for the direction the team was headed in, and promptly headed in the wrong direction. They also gave him enough money that they started to worry he wouldn’t opt out, leaving them on the hook for a star’s salary without a good team around him … As for the Cardinals, they turned a handful of minor leaguers into literally Nolan Arenado. It might not be pretty in five years, but aging is unpredictable, and with Colorado kicking in a full quarter of the contract, it’s not even a particularly bad rate. There are really no two ways to put it: this is a phenomenal deal for St. Louis. Whatever the financial backdrop of baseball, whatever the surplus valuation calculations that fill teams’ ledgers, star power still matters. If you want to win the World Series, you need stars. If you want to be an exciting team, you need stars. The Cardinals, for all their ability to develop average players out of sawdust and hope, have been sorely lacking in the showstopper department of late, Goldschmidt notwithstanding.”
Former big league general manager Jim Bowden.
“If the initial reports are accurate, this is one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history. It will go down in history as one of the worst trades ever made by a MLB team on behalf of the Rockies. It’s almost unfathomable.”
I don’t expect the deal to be structured that way. 25% of Arenado’s annual salary, as long as he remains a Cardinal, is the fairest structure. (edit- excluding the additional season stl may tack on)
That’s what I would expect as well. The Cards will get about an $8.3M per year discount on Nolan’s salary. I would imagine that the Cards are hoping to defer some of Nolan’s salary in 2021 to later to make that $26.7M more palatable for this year.
I made this same comparison a few days ago that Ben Hochman made in his article.
Last weekend, as seemingly every sports fan in St. Louis and Denver was discussing Arenado, I received a text from a baseball-loving St. Louis native in Denver.
“Do St. Louisans know what they just got?” he asked. “He’s a rich man’s Scott Rolen.”
Nolan Arenado used to have "cankles."
And was hitting .220. In his 1st yr of pro ball, he called home crying, wondering if he should quit baseball.
He needed to get in better shape. And improve 2 things that now define him: power and defense.
He did. https://t.co/DU8US5seDi
— Benjamin Hochman (@hochman) February 1, 2021
JJ, if the $50M is spread out over the length of the contract that makes it better for the Rockies but my point is they could have avoided that altogether by keeping Arenado and allowing him to opt out after 2021. If he didn’t opt out then keep him and try to find a better deal.
And get what? A sandwich pick?
I don’t think this deal is all that bad for the Rockies. Again, we don’t know who is going but Gomber is a #5 starter already in the bigs, Rondon is #3-5 starter who’s basically right on the edge of being ready, Baker could be a big time power bat in Coors, Woodford is a #5/5+ starter who’s already in the big leagues, and Torres is a potential star who is still only 20.
If there’s one thing we know about St Louis, it’s that those underrated guys who get close to St Louis often turn out to be average MLB players. I wouldn’t doubt that the Rockies get 10 WAR minimum from the group going back. They got out from under $200M going forward (about $50M projected negative value) by paying that negative value down and accepting 4 guys from a team who just traded away two guys who look like stars in Voit and Arozarena and regularly churn out guys from their system to replace whomever they need to. I don’t think they would get that much better a deal next year.
How does the projected Cardinal ’21 infield compare to the 1964 Card’s infield?
1B-White 2B-Javier SS-Groat 3B-Boyer
Be careful how you answer…. the 64’s were all starting All-Stars for the NL.
This is something to discuss but the bottom line is the ’21 Card’s infield just got a ton better. We got a new face for the team and a rejuvenation of the fan base.
And get what? A sandwich pick?
Yes, a sandwich pick. Let’s play this out in how it is most likely to go.
Odds of Arenado opting out after 2021? I am going to say 5%.
Odds of Arenado opting out after 2022! I am going to say 20% and that is probably too high.Therefore, in all likelihood, the Rockies are choosing to fork over $50M for prospects who will be appearing in a supporting role with the possible exception of Torres but he is years away. That seems like a very steep price to pay.
If Arenado has a hot start to the 21 season they could have flipped him July for a better deal than that or let him walk after the season and owe nothing.
Ny asked:
How does the projected Cardinal ’21 infield compare to the 1964 Card’s infield?
If Wong was back (which ain’t happening), 2021 would have a better shot, but for me, it isn’t close. 1964.
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