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There was an article on Yahoo Sports/MLB today about teams possibly trading for Arenado. St. Louis was not one of the teams mentioned. Dodgers, Toronto, San Francisco, Atlanta, Washington were the teams mentioned.
r/Esteemed Rat
I think the Cardinals will have a big strapping slugger at 3B for the next several years by the name of Nolan. The last name will be Gorman, not Arenado.
You think we are tired of hearing about Arenado being traded? How would you like to be a Rockies fan? They don’t know if Arenado or Story or neither will be traded. But the beat writers have to write about something, so this one goes back into team history to review how the franchise also unloaded previous stars CarGo, Tulo and Holliday.
Be thankful for what you have as a Cardinals fan… (Maybe Denver-based BikeMike will weigh in….)
#Rockies’ Jeff Bridich can learn lessons from Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki trades as Colorado do faces decision on whether to deal Nolan Arenado or Trevor Story.https://t.co/b7vbAFczSS via @denverpost
— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) December 26, 2020
It is not a matter of if the Rockies trade Arenado, it is a matter of when. That fate was sealed after the nasty public comments that were aired last year. If the Rockies are trying to maximize the return they should wait until next winter. His 2021 numbers should be better than 2020, his opt out will be resolved, and other teams will have a chance to be back at full revenue. I guess there is the small chance that Arenado opts out next winter and leaves without the Rockies getting anything but at least they wouldn’t have to eat any money. I don’t see him doing that though because he probably wouldn’t get as much in a new deal. The only thing that could speed up a trade is the fact that he is disgruntled and the Rockies are concerned about the clubhouse chemistry.
One other thing I would say about his situation is that I don’t have respect for players who spout off and try to negotiate in the media. Things like that should be handled behind closed doors. Even if his front office misled him (big if) the way he trashed them in the paper was not professional. Is that the kind of guy you want to trade for and pay $200M to? We have already been through that on a smaller scale with Tommy Pham and to some extent with Yadi. We don’t need another hot head.
Last night on the MLB Network they were discussing Arenado. They talked about how Colorado now probably realizes, with the Padres acquisition of Snell and Darvish, that there is NO WAY they can finish in 2nd place in the NL West. And that might spur them on to now trading Arenado and perhaps starting a rebuild.
I believe it was Dan Plesac and/or Greg Amsinger that said St. Louis is a perfect fit for Arenado. They mentioned how 2-3 years ago St. Louis was willing to spend $300 million on Giancarlo Stanton so now they would certainly be willing to spend $200 million on Arenado.
Thoughts posters?
r/Esteemed Rat
Previously, the Cards were looking for a power bat for the lineup and were looking at a sweetheart deal with the Marlins to make it happen. Unloading a contract (Fowler maybe?) would have made it quite a lot more palatable. As is, they didn’t have it happen. They got Ozuna and then Goldy. Now with today’s financial situaion, that $200m for Arenado may as well be $400m.
I agree with gscott, there is no way the Cardinals trade for Arenado this year. At this point, I give a trade after the 2021 season a 5% chance or less. At that time, the Arenado opt out will be out of the equation. However, Gorman will be very close to the majors so he will play into any decision.
Why is everyone so high on Gorman? Let me ask one question here:
WHAT HAS HE EVER DONE???
Obliterated the Appy League his draft year and put up above average lines at Peoria and Palm Beach at age 18/19. Both of those places are tough hitting environments and given his age, he performed very well. It’s really about a young player holding their own at that age and level, which he did. Sort of like freshmen college football players, where they may only run 300 yards or catch 20 passes but you see that they’re primed to be good because they are playing decently well at a young age.
Lest you get too caught up in the slash line stats, he performed better, although the stats were similar, than Dylan Carlson did at both levels at the same age:
Carlson Peoria: 26% above average
Carlson Palm Beach: 12% above averageGorman Peoria: 28% above average
Gorman Palm Beach: 17% above averageAnother point to consider about Gorman: his first year in the minors he hit HRs at a higher rate than Mark McGwire did over his first 6 years in the majors.
I also believe I heard he was working on his hitting in 2019 so he would be better prepared to hit at the major league level. If so, he kept improving his numbers at the end of the season. He will be challenged again in 2021 so it will be interesting to see how he performs.
I do not want to give up on Gorman at all. That is the part of trading for Arenado that bothers me the most. If that trade ever did come about I would not send Gorman to Colorado. Even though 1B and 3B would be locked up we could put Gorman at DH until Goldy or Arenado got too old to play the field.
New news from Ken Rosenthal, but he warns that “no deal appears close”:
Players in deal are unknown
One big contract from StL to COL likely
Prospects from StL to COL likely
Arenado might push back his opt out later than 2021Cardinals, Rockies talking Arenado. Story: https://t.co/nefoGysvmg
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 29, 2021
First-cup of coffee thoughts on Arenado.
Ken Rosenthal wrote right up front that "no deal appears close".
That Arenado might move his opt out into the future would be big, giving him more flexibility in a better market later.
How could the Rox not demand Gorman in the deal?
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 29, 2021
If there was a comma between Arenado and Story in that tweet instead of a period, I’d be fine with giving up Gorman. Heck, Dejong too.
Sounds like the Cards would send a contract back. There aren’t a lot of options. In order of likelihood: Carp, Cmart, Fowler (no trade), Mikolas. Without that money going back I don’t see how Arenado would net any of the Cards top 5 prospects. Mo has indicated that the Cards would not send a prospect away to save money, which is essentially what this would be.
My prediction for what the deal would look like with and without a contract going back:
Arenado and a flier prospect for Carp, Gorman, Rondon and Dennis Ortega
Arenado for Montero, Oviedo and Lane Thomas
Btw, Mikolas plus Carpenter is a good match on the MLB Trade Simulator at -42.4M vs -43.7M. Would be a net even on salary this year and the Cards would gain around $19M the next two years. The Rockies fans would run their owner out of town on a rail though.
It’ll be very difficult to find a neutral value trade with Arenado’s deal looming if the Cards include Gorman, who is a +35.1M on the trade simulator. That’s a $78.8M difference in value right away.
OK, so I am up early and the best way to get the newest rumor of a Nolan Arenado trade to the #stlcards out of my head is to put my initial thoughts down for you to read. (free) https://t.co/0cTrPNpM97 pic.twitter.com/VuggeMBAJl
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 29, 2021
Rockies beat writer weighs in. To summarize, what was “not close” is “not as close as that”.
The potential psychology intrigues me. If the Rox want the Cards to up their ante, the best way to do so is by signaling there is a second bidder…
Sources tell me that #Rockies-Cardinals trade for Nolan Arenado is "not as close" as has been reported But #Braves are interested, too.
— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) January 29, 2021
Cardinals players have been buzzing about this with each other for several weeks. It would be a tectonic shift in the NL Central if their team can make it happen. https://t.co/1Xtubf0yJQ
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) January 29, 2021
As long as Arenado has an opt out, Gorman stays. I’m not interested in reckless.
If COL can buy out the opt out they negotiated with Arenado, then Gorman should be available.
There is a possible Arenado trade scenario I like for STL, but it would be up to COL to accept, or find a better offer. This scenario does allow COL to shed 25mil on Arenado the last five seasons of his contract (2022-2026). They could apply that directly to Storys’ 2022 free agency, if they choose to.
Arenado bought down to 6/150mil, no opt out
Brendan Rodgers (5 seasons control) not on pace for a super2 arb season in 2022
for
Carpenter 1/18.5mil w/option
Gorman2021: STL adds 7.1mil payroll
Arenado for 25mil AAV and Rodgers at near minimum 0.6mil
minus Carpenter at 18.5milThe sim sees this as STL sending 20.4 for 20.1 after COL buys down Arenado to 6/150mil
If they can do better elsewhere, they should.Braves have checked in on Arenado, too. Probably a long shot. Rockies want big haul back but don’t want to eat much $ (that part makes some sense as he may opt out after 2021 anyway). #STLCards need may be greater than Braves.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 29, 2021
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