Nolan Arenado trade thread

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  • #149128
    Avatarmudville
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    When the idea of Arenado being traded came up again, there were those who rejected the idea out of hand. My point was, and still is, that an Arenado trade to St. Louis is possible. The idea of not including Gorman, and probably, Liberatore in a trade for Arenado does seem unrealistic, but including Carpenter and Fowler does not, IMO. Of the five teams speculated about by that beat writer, I believe the Cardinals and the Dodgers are the only ones where discussions concerning an Arenado trade have been mentioned in the media. BTW, thanks for agreeing that an Arenado trade to St. Louis is possible though highly unlikely.

    #149130
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I try to never say never, but prefer to focus on the more likely possibilities.

    Actually getting Arenado and ridding the payroll of its two worst contracts in the midst of an ongoing pandemic and a down payroll and with future revenues in great question before a new CBA add up to a truly monumental task. There has to be an easier and better trade for the Rockies elsewhere, if they really feel they need to do it. I will leave it at that, as I am being repetitive.

    #149143
    Avatargscottar
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    I could see the Dodgers or Mets pulling off an Arenado trade. The Cardinals and Braves aren’t touching that contract and I predict the Nationals will trade for Kris Bryant since they seem to love Boras clients.

    #149167
    Avatarmudville
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    I still think he will end up in St. Louis. Don’t know when, or how the transaction might look. If the Rockies would take Fowler and Carpenter, they, like the Cardinals, would be payroll neutral for 2021. But the Rockies would be off the hook for $164M in future payroll and the Cardinals would be on the hook for that $164M. This Mike Axisa person quoted earlier in this thread is the one who brought up the idea of the Rockies taking on Fowler and Carpenter. By the way, Fowler and Carpenter are making the big bucks because that was market rate for them at the time of their signing.

    #149176
    AvatarCardinal in France
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    Don’t Carp and Fowler have no trade agreements? What’s in it for them if they waive? Perhaps that’s already been addressed way back in this endless thread.

    #149199
    Avatarmudville
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    From what I can tell, the no trade clause just means that a front office can’t blind side a player with news that he has been traded. Obviously, if an organization is trading a player, in a sense, they’re telling that player that he’s not wanted any more. Sounds cruel, I know. But that’s baseball. There are exceptions like Joey Votto in Cincinnati who has told his bosses that he will not accept a trade no matter what.

    #149212
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It means in most cases the no-trade protection has to be bought out, leading to one team or the other spending more money.

    It can also backfire big time if the player is approached but the deal later falls through. These can be real issues with real people. Folks have homes. Kids in school. Not like fantasy baseball trades where no one gets hurt.

    After listening to Mo for an hour today, I am of the belief it would be nothing short of a miracle for this trade to happen. They are not even focused on getting Yadi or Waino done any time soon. This would be light years past them.

    #149216
    Avatar858booyah
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    This thread should be eliminated. No chance!

    #149228
    Avatargscottar
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    MLB Radio did an interview with Goold yesterday evening and asked him if there was any buzz regarding the Cardinals doing a Lindor trade. He chuckled and said no way because the Cardinals don’t seem anywhere close to considering a player of that magnitude and cost. He echoed Brian by basically saying their only focus right now is scraping up enough pennies under the seat cushion to bring back Yadi and Waino, and there is no guarantee they do that.

    I think our fans need a reality check if they think we are acquiring a big name like Arenado this winter.

    #149415
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Olney states what has seemed obvious to most of us. Arenado’s contract is not tradeable. The only way it could get done now is if he would agree to opt out of his current contract, leaving up to $100 million on the table. Otherwise, he is stuck with the Rockies and they are stuck with him – at least for multiple years until the free agent market goes back up. It also points out that the team Arenado grew up rooting for is the Dodgers.

    #149416
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Buster mentions that the people he talked to think that Arenado would get around $100-125M on the market this winter. That’s a pretty big difference from his 6 years and $199M left. I wonder if he’d opt out next year just to try to get out of Colorado, even if it means losing money?

    #149422
    Avatarbccran
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    Pure folly.

    #149439
    Avatargscottar
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    I don’t think Arenado will opt out. He would be leaving too much money on the table. I think he will play 2021 in Colorado, stay in his contract, then get traded next winter. Once fans come back to the stadiums and the revenue starts flowing again there will be some owner willing to take on his contract. Just not this winter.

    #149451
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Agreed. Arenado isn’t going to risk leaving $100 MM on the table. Though I doubt a trade next winter, either, as I would have a hard time predicting 2021 will be a return to normalcy.

    #149454
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Would it really be $100M? He’ll be owed 5 years and $164M after next year. If he has a typical Arenado year, he couldn’t get something close to that on the open market? I dunno about that. I do know there’s no way he’d make $64M over those 5 years unless he signed a one year deal and got injured. AAV wise he’d lose some, but not a huge amount. I’d guess he could get at least $150M over those 5 years and if it got him to a winning ball club, he might consider that worth it.

    #149456
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The simple math was $199 MM owed now minus an estimated contract of $100 MM possible now. The difference is $99 MM. What’s a rounded million between friends? 😉

    Whether it is $100 MM or “only” $50 MM, no one in their right mind would leave that kind of money on the table now.

    Next year will be a different time, but also with a number of top infield talent available as free agents to compete with, by the way. We can debate next year next year, when we know what the market is like and we know what kind of year Arenado is going to have. If he has another 84 OPS+, the gap could be even bigger. If he returns to his career norm and the market improves substantially, he may be tradable. But we cannot tell the future…

    #149489
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Ken Rosenthal has some fun with wild trade scenarios that he admits he made up. Here is one…

    The Dodgers acquiring both third baseman Nolan Arenado and shortstop Trevor Story from the Rockies, clearing the shortstop position by sending World Series MVP Corey Seager to Colorado or someplace else.

    https://theathletic.com/2257082/2020/12/13/arenado-realmuto-lemahieu-seager-trade-targets/

    #149501
    Avatargscottar
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    Two things about the Dodgers: They like to go big with trades instead of free agency and they have $85M coming off the books after 2021! They could wait and go big next winter or they could do it now knowing that they will be getting payroll relief in another season. Friedman is smart by not bogging down his payroll with a lot of long term albatross contracts.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #149510
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    The Dodgers have so many stars they’ll have to pay that it makes sense that they won’t be able to keep them all. Of course, if the window is still open, they could decide to take the luxury tax hit and keep on trucking toward titles. Bellinger, Betts, Seager, Lux, Buehler, Kershaw, etc is a nice core to have, and adding an Arenado would make them pretty formidable.

    It’s not unlike what the Cards are hoping for from their future high end bets. Especially while they are cheap, you have tons of financial flexibility.

    #149521
    Avatargscottar
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    It’s not unlike what the Cards are hoping for from their future high end bets. Especially while they are cheap, you have tons of financial flexibility.

    Yep, that is what the Cubs had planned for their dynasty. It turned out to be a good but not great run.

    #149522
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Yep, that is what the Cubs had planned for their dynasty. It turned out to be a good but not great run.

    One difference is that the Cubs didn’t develop much of any pitching during their entire run. The Cards, hopefully, will continue to make most of their pitching, like the Dodgers do, and also have some high end position players to supplement any trades or free agent signings.

    #149679
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The agony will continue…

    #149781
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    This horse died long ago, but 101 continues to flog its corpse…

    #149834
    thejagerthejager
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    with the chatter about Arenado an the Mets, i thought the whole reason he wanted out of COL was they werent committed to winning.

    NYM have some talent, but are they really going to be winning any time soon? Their elite staff has been riddled with injuries, Alonso has been a revelation, but everything else looks pretty middling.

    Is Arenado really going to fix all of that?

    Getting McCann when you come out saying you wanted Realmuto is not really the sign of a team wanting to go big.

    Cardinals consistently win, whether their teams look like it.. The culture is about winning. That is hard to create by throwing money around or tanking.

    Arenado is right to be interested in StL and LAD…if he truly wants to be about winning.

    If he wanted out, all he would have to do is say publicly that he would be very willing to opt out of his option if he was traded to a team that was committed to winning or something vague like that. I think everyone knows he will probably NOT opt out but to commit trade value and money they need more assurances. Even just a little public one.

    In this economic climate (whether it’s severity is invented or not) we probably need to clear at least CMart or one of Fowler to realistically make it work (as i doubt the Rox will take much off the top unless you unload top prospects)…which is not easy to do….

    CMart + Knizner + Montero + Bader + 1/2 of Carp
    for
    Arenado 35m

    sign Cesar Hernandez (2yrs 15m, 3yr option based on ABs)
    sign Yadi and Waino (10m 1yr with option, and 5m with incentives)

    Cesar, Carlson, Arenado, Goldy, DeJong, Yadi, Fowler, Oneill… Edman super UTIL

    Cmart -11.5
    carp1/2 -9.5
    bader -1.5
    -22.5

    arenado +35
    cesar +7.5
    yadi +10
    Waino +5
    +59.5

    +37

    our current payroll per spotrac: ~117
    with these: ~154
    2020: ~180

    That looks like savings to me….getting the Rox to take Cmart and Carp is the big hurdle…and it might mean throwing in a higher prospect other than Knizner (though i think he would have good value to them)…maybe an Oviedo, Zach Thompson, Ponce, Rondon, Woodford? I’d be fine with anything other than Herrera, Carlson, Gorman

    Carp’s power might play better in COL, CMart might just need a different city and his team options could be a steal if he reclaims his magic, Knizner can start, Bader can run all over that huge OF, Montero brings an upside young bat, throw in Zach Thompson for a high prospect lefty. CMart and 1/2 Carp still saves the Rox 15mil..Bader for 1.5 is not much and everything else is cheap.

    I think Arenado does not opt out anyways, but even if he did….we’d clear up some money, lose Knizner (replaced by Herrera), Montero (gorman), Thompson (Libertore et al)

    I think the Cards can literally afford Arenado and still save a bit of money…and afford what it would take from the system…bring back Yadi Waino and a leadoff man like Cesar gives us depth, MOTO bat and leadoff

    babbling…

    #149850
    Avatargscottar
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    The Mets are looked at much differently now than they were last year. Their new owner is the wealthiest owner in all of MLB and he hasn’t been shy about his intentions to turn them around quickly. I could see them pulling off an Arenado trade although next year seems more likely. I would imagine the Rockies would like to send Arenado out of the division if they have a good opportunity to do so.

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