Nolan Arenado trade thread

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  • #148948
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    stlcard25 said:

    At this point, with Arenado coming off a bad 2020 and a shoulder injury, they would be lucky to give him away for nothing. There’s zero, and I mean zero chance that the Rockies get anything close to a high end prospect without eating a lot of money or another bad contract (or two, if one year deals).

    I think you are really devaluing a player who has not yet turned 30, yet already has 8 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers and is a five-time All-Star. Not to mention six top 8 placements in the MVP voting. This isn’t Jason Heyward…

    #148949
    Avatargscottar
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    Raise your hand if you would like to be the Rockie GM who traded Arenado for Carp, Fowler, and a mid range prospect? Try selling that to the fanbase. You would be tarred, feathered, and fired before the ink was dry on the deal.

    When the rumors came out a couple of weeks ago about the Dodgers and Arenado I don’t remember any talk about the Dodgers sending the Rockies any big contracts to offset Arenado’s contract. Instead, it was all about high end prospects which is what the Rockies will want. Otherwise they don’t have to do a deal at all.

    #148950
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Mookie Betts is a year younger than Arenado and has a comparable heritage of success. He recently got a 12-year deal with multiple years of slightly smaller contract value than Arenado’s, but still $30 MM vs. $35. (corrected)

    My point is that wealthy teams are willing to make major commitments to big stars. That is where Arenado will end up, not St. Louis.

    #148951
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I want to go back to this comment by gscottar…

    Why in the world would the Rockies do that? I guess if we threw in Gorman, Liberatore, Knizer, and Oviedo they might consider it. No thanks.

    Gorman is a 55 FV position player, Liberatore a 55 FV pitcher (FG has him at 50, but he’s at least a 55 everywhere else so we will use 55), Oviedo a 45+, and Knizner a 45 according to Fangraphs. Using their prospect valuation numbers, that’s $46M, $34M, around $10M and around $5M. So $95M in prospects to “get rid” of Fowler and Carp for one year, AND take on a 6 year, $199M deal? The Cards just took on almost $300M of risk to get rid of $35M. Arenado would have to be a 5-6 WAR player the rest of his deal to make that worth it. If he opts out after one year, it’s still $130M or a 13+ WAR season. He’d better be Babe Ruth.

    #148952
    Avatargscottar
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    I was trying to make the point that the Rockies aren’t doing the deal without multiple high end prospects in return. I think the Rockies have more leverage than you might imagine. They don’t have to trade him. They aren’t the Marlins. This isn’t exactly like the Stanton deal. The Rockies have money and they sell a lot of tickets, but they would lose ticket sales if they trade away their franchise player for a pile of rubbish.

    #148953
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Raise your hand if you would like to be the Rockie GM who traded Arenado for Carp, Fowler, and a mid range prospect? Try selling that to the fanbase. You would be tarred, feathered, and fired before the ink was dry on the deal.

    You could also be the Rockie GM who harpoons the team’s future, having to let Story go to afford to keep aging Arenado around, thus keeping your team miles behind the Dodgers, Padres and even the bigger money Giants for the next 6 years. Fans forgive when you win.

    #148957
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    For the record, Story is just 19 months younger than Arenado and is less accomplished to date. His only clear advantage as I see it is a lower salary until he reaches free agency, which will be this coming fall.

    If the Rockies cannot afford Arenado, how would they be able to pay Story after 2021, either?

    #148978
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    A player who will be playing in his 30-35 age seasons, whose season ended with a shoulder injury, at 33mil per. Hard pass, and if COL can do better than Carp/Fowler for Arenado elsewhere, they should, I don’t even want him at that price.

    Patiently play Carp and Fowler off the roster and support our prospects at 3B with playing time going forward.

    #148993
    Avatarmudville
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    I don’t think the fact that Arenado is disgruntled should be ignored. No team wants a player, particularly their star player, around when that player has soured on the organization that he is a part of. Besides, Arenado’s contract handcuffs the organization by tying up too much money in one player.

    If the Rockies won’t take Carpenter and Fowler for 2021, then there’s no deal for the time being. And if Gorman, or Montero, come on strong in 2021, then again, there’s no deal. How much would the Dodgers offer for Arenado if there were no other teams interested in paying Arenado $35M/yr for the next 4 years, and another $60M after that?

    A Cardinals trade for Nolan Arenado is possible. No one can guess how likely it is to happen. But it’s possible.

    #148994
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    jj-cf-stl wrote:

    Patiently play Carp and Fowler off the roster and support our prospects at 3B with playing time going forward.

    What prospects at 3B? You mean Gorman, the guy that basically averaged in the .240s in the minor leagues???

    #148997
    Avatarforsch31
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    Rat, I know you basically only look at batting average but Gorman has hit better than that. His overall minor league batting average is .263 while being extremely young for whatever league he has been in. He won’t be 21 until May and he is already on the doorstep of the majors. But also consider that he has hit 32 home runs in just 786 plate appearances. He was 3 1/2 years younger than the average age of the hitters in both Peoria in 2018 and in Palm Beach in 2019. He is a special hitter.

    For those of us who consider the full picture, he has the following line for the minors: .263/.345/.483/.828.

    #149027
    Avatargscottar
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    Gorman
    Montero
    Nunez
    Walker

    We are loaded with high end 3B prospects. They don’t need to be blocked. Let’s spend our payroll dollars on a position where we aren’t stacked. Seems like common sense to me.

    #149029
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Yep, gscottar. If things are looking less rosy after 2021, it can always be revisited if Arenado is still out there. I like the thought of adding a SS then and moving Dejong to 2B or maybe 3B, and having Edman go back to the utility role. Or if Edman looks good at 2B and Gorman is ready, you could always trade Dejong for something.

    #149049
    Avatarmudville
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    Keep in mind that Arenado is already an elite superstar at a position that is severely lacking for the St. Louis Cardinals.
    With the exception of Tampa Bay, every contending team has at least one elite player.

    The amount of money that is owed Arenado is alarming to say the least. Plus, it’s fairly common for these megacontract superstars to lay down during the last 2 or 3 years of their contract. Then, there’s the question of attendance in 2021. It’s a tough time to be a GM.

    If the Rockies would take Carpenter and Fowler this offseason, the numbers would work for the Cardinals assuming that they can maintain the current dollar amount of their payroll going forward. It might be unrealistic to say it, but because of the risk, they should not include Gorman in a trade.

    #149053
    Avatargscottar
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    No one is saying the Cardinals shouldn’t have an elite position player (we may already have one in Goldy), but why does it have to be 3B? Let’s pick a position where we aren’t stacked in the minors.

    #149056
    Avatarmudville
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    IMHO, Goldy has been elite in the past, but I’m not sure that holds true now. Arenado would surely make Goldy even better.

    One reason for taking on Arenado is that he is available and he wants to play for the Cardinals, at least so it seems. Another reason is that he’s already that elite player. None of our prospects are elite, and we all know it’s possible that none of them could become elite.

    I love Bader’s defense, so as far as I’m concerned, he’s our centerfielder. Fowler is going to be in right field unless he’s traded in which case Carlson can take over right field.
    I still haven’t given up on O’Neill, Thomas, and Dean, and hopefully one of them can be our left fielder. Maybe they can acquire an outfielder during the season if none of our prospects work out. For me third base is more of a glaring hole than the outfield. That’s all.

    #149057
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    muds, I understand why you’d be cautious of the last 2 or 3 seasons on Nolan’s contract. What about 21′ thru 23′? Is Arenado a replay of Ozuna trying to recover from a shoulder injury for a couple seasons? How many 33mil seasons are left of his 6 seasons control remaining? A couple? Maybe 3?

    Maybe he’s fine right now, maybe he’s not. If just half Arenado’s remaining seasons control are ho-hum, and the other half are the early career Arenado production that’s stuck in peoples minds, is he the right investment? I’d rather another club assume that risk, and deal away as many high end prospects as they want.

    #149058
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Mud, would it be better to trade prospects and take on money for Arenado, or wait a year and keep the prospects and probably pay less money for a Lindor, Seager or Correa and move Dejong to 3B? To me, I trust the three SS to be as good as or better than Arenado going forward and Dejong could be an excellent bridge to Gorman at 3B or maybe move to 2B and allow Edman to move to the utility role again.

    #149061
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    mud said:

    “IMHO, Goldy has been elite in the past, but I’m not sure that holds true now.”

    Taking for granted a great player you already have…

    Goldy OPS+
    2019: 115
    2020: 142
    Career: 141

    Arenado OPS+
    2019: 130
    2020: 84
    Career: 120

    “If the Rockies would take Carpenter and Fowler this offseason…”

    But as several of us have tried to explain, that is not realistic…

    #149069
    Avatarforsch31
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    In addition to Lindor, Seager and Correa, Story will also be a free agent after 2021.

    #149070
    Avatarmudville
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    The only reason why including Carpenter and Fowler in a trade with Colorado is realistic is that it might be the only way Colorado can unload his contract. The Cardinals are not going to take on an additional $35M in payroll for 2021. Period. After 2021 the Cardinals might be going in another direction and no longer be interested in taking on Arenado’s contract. Or, Arenado could incur an injury. IMO, the Rockies have more internal pressure to unload Arenado’s contract than the Cardinals have willingness to take it on. It’s understood that some ‘mystery’ team might suddenly show up take Arenado’s contract off of the Rockies hands. But so far there’s no indication that that’s about to happen. I think if the Dodgers really wanted Arenado and his contract, Arenado would already be wearing Dodger blue.

    #149082
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    There are more teams in MLB other than the Cardinals and Dodgers. And there is no proof that Arenado has to be traded anywhere or that there is any deadline that the Dodgers supposedly missed. Today is December 8, very early in a very slow moving offseason.

    I am pretty sure if the Rockies’ only choice is to take on Carpenter and Fowler, the trade would not occur.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree on the viability of this idea.

    #149098
    Avatarmudville
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    I’m not necessarily advocating that the Cardinals trade for Arenado. That contract scares me as much as anybody. Were it not for your report that WDWJr was all in on Stanton, I wouldn’t even want to talk about the Cardinals taking on a megacontract. My main point in all of this is not to reject the possibility of an Arenado trade right out of hand.

    #149099
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It is always about assessing odds since none of us can tell the future. What odds do you give the trade as you define it? I would give it way less than 5%, therefore not worth much discussion. But that is my assessment.

    #149106
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Here is an update from the Rockies beat writer from the Denver Post. No new insight, but he lists five possible destinations – Dodgers, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves and Mets. For several of these teams, the author suggests possible trade packages, but for the Cardinals, he lists no names. He is clear that while St. Louis is a good fit for the player, the money makes it unlikely. Pretty much what we’ve been saying all along…

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