Nolan Arenado trade thread

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  • #120216
    Avatarmudville
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    I still think Carpenter will return to being the hitter he has been in the past. He has to because it’s going to cost him $18M in 2022 if he doesn’t. O’Neill, Thomas, Williams, Carlson, and possibly Dean have all generated some excitement.

    My gut feeling is that Arenado will be traded, maybe not to the Cardinals, but I think Colorado will trade him. I just don’t think the Rockies want to fork over $35M for one player for one year much less $260M for seven years, especially since they don’t appear to be able to reach the playoffs for awhile. If the Cardinals’ offer is not an overpay and does not include Gorman, then it wouldn’t be a bad thing to trade for Arenado even with the opt-out in place.

    #120217
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    mud said:

    If the Cardinals’ offer is not an overpay and does not include Gorman, then it wouldn’t be a bad thing to trade for Arenado even with the opt-out in place.

    Did you see/hear what DeWitt said today? The opt out is not the major issue. He doesn’t want to take on the incremental salary and does not want to give up his top prospects.

    My gut says the price would have to come way down, in which case another team might get Arenado instead.

    #120224
    Avatarmudville
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    I was basing my thoughts on DeWitt’s earlier comment that he might add payroll for an impact player. If the Rockies would accept Carpenter in a trade package, that would soften the blow to the Cardinals’ payroll and it should lower the Rockies’ demand for prospects. I agree that Arenado will go to another team, one that will take on the whole $35M.

    #120225
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Very interesting take…

    #120226
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    mud said:

    I was basing my thoughts on DeWitt’s earlier comment that he might add payroll for an impact player. If the Rockies would accept Carpenter in a trade package, that would soften the blow to the Cardinals’ payroll and it should lower the Rockies’ demand for prospects.

    Today, DeWitt said he would NOT add payroll for an impact player without shedding current payroll. $170 is his max. (“Pushing the envelope” were his exact words.)

    I already did the math on a previous page. Carpenter’s salary would not be nearly enough to offset the increase taken for Arenado. The latter makes almost twice as much. They’d have to dump Fowler, too, without paying down either deal. It would be pretty close to impossible to pull off.

    Carpenter plus Fowler = $35 MM per year
    Arenado = $35 million per year

    #120234
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    They “disrespected me.” Now there is a phrase that can get you killed down in the hood. But if you want to pay me $260 million in 8 years you can do anything to me short of killing me. Yep, he wants out but it was he and his greedy agent that put pen to paper and agreed and was even given a 2 year out and no-trade clause. So all he has to do is wait two years and another sap will come along. Can imagine a team where the lineup is:
    1. Arenado
    2 ”
    3 ”
    4 ”
    5 ”
    6 ”
    7 ”
    8 ”
    9 ”

    Ok, that was an exaggeration but some of these mucho stars want to make you think it is like that. I don’t think we will know if the Cards were ever in the game for his trade but after considering what we would lose I have to admit I had second thoughts but I will also admit that it sure would be nice having him at the hot corner. So this thread will eventually fade only to be replaced by another name of the day. Goldschmidt was a total surprise to me and I liked it and still do. Repeat that Mo.

    #120248
    Avatargscottar
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    Interestingly, today BDW Jr. said the Cardinals were 6th in payroll and 11th in revenues, but of course, did not share his source. Chances are that Ballpark Village and other non-team assets are not included, but that is just my guess.

    The Cardinals may have been 6th at the end of the 2019 season but other teams have spent more this winter thus far so they are now 10th. I will probably post a list once we get closer to the new season and after the remaining free agents signings and possible trades have taken place.

    #120250
    Avatargscottar
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    I just heard an interview on MLB radio with the media person in Denver who first broke the story. He basically laid most of the blame on the Colorado front office saying that this isn’t the first time they have alienated one of their big stars. I think Tulo was one of the others he was referring to. He said that many things have led to this deterioration, not just one thing. His take is that the most likely scenario is Arenado is traded in July.

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatargscottar.
    #120251
    thejagerthejager
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    He is still worth it, and with his frustration with the ROx and how warmly and appreciated he would be received by StL, as well as him being pretty much the missing piece to our offense makes for a great pairing.

    They should do this as soon as possible, i bet Arenado with his frustration now would probably be amenable to waiving the opt out too more so than maybe even a month ago.

    I do think there is a real money issue (even though there should not be)

    Though i don’t think Carp and fowler are the only bits of money that could be moved. CMart makes decent money too and should be a consideration.

    I think all the talking points about money are just seeds to sow into the fans that the poor old Cardinals just cant afford big stars like Arenado so they can just not ever invest in them and thus try to convince the fans they dont have to pay up or enter into big name star talk.

    Arenado with a little money off the books for this upcoming year
    for
    Carp + Thompson + ONeill + Knizner + Woodford

    There will definitely be additions to the payroll through extensions or raises going into 2021 but:
    Cecil is gone-7.25m
    Waino probably is gone-5m
    Yadi’s price will come down-20m…down to 15? I have no idea how they will work it out

    Wong and Miller both have outs too, and while I think Wong will be give nan extension…im not so sure we will want to pay Miller 12m to be so so…even if it means eating 2.5m….so save another 9.5m…

    that right there is around ~30m BEFORE raises and extensions of course

    While i think looking at THIS year’s budget is important deals can be made that spreads out the effect of large incoming salaries this year to make it work

    Move Carp in the deal…pay half the salary, but make it NONE this year and all next year…puts us at only roughly +16.5m with Arenado added for 2021…even with paying Carp next year to play for the Rox…and the Rox still save 16.5m THIS year as well and get Carp…

    If you could also get them to pay a little money THIS year (they are already +16.5 in the deal) it might work out even better…let’s say another 5m or 10m? We could even throw in another prospect to make it work.

    10m + 18.5m saved…28.5 this year…+6.5m this year…AND we lose some good prospects and Carp…BUT it should be do-able….

    And I am not so high on any of our prospects outside of Carlson to feel like we should not be trying to get someone like Arenado….

    I love having a nice farm, but the point of the farm is to help the MLB team win…and Arenado will help the big league tema win… no one gives trophies to BEST FARM of 2021… and no one is saying we should trade our farm for some nobody…

    we are saying to trade for arguably the best player in the NL…GG/platinum defense, triple crown threat, and still very young

    If he was on our team (he was his name was Pujols..and PUjols was older) we’d be INSULTED that we did not pay him whatever he wanted (in this case money AND prospects are relevant as Arenado is younger)

    #120254
    Avatarforsch31
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    gscott, you were the one who stated the owners should stop complaining about budget and spend the necessary money. I have never heard them complain. I have heard them explain their budget stance when questioned but they don’t complain about it. Only the fans do.

    I don’t have a problem with fans questioning how the team does things. I do have a problem with fans telling them how much money they need to spend. If the fans want to spend the team’s money, buy the team.

    Fans make a claim the team doesn’t increase payroll very much each year, yet the facts speak differently. Since 2010, the Cardinals have increased payroll around $11 million to $22 million 3 times in 10 years. So they raised payroll by around 10% or more in 1 year, 30% of the time over the last 10 years. They raised payroll by 10% or more 35% of the time in the last 20 years. I believe the owners are very good at making sure they spend money wisely. Yes, they do make mistakes but overall they do a good job.

    #120255
    Avatargscottar
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    Wong and Miller both have outs too, and while I think Wong will be give nan extension…im not so sure we will want to pay Miller 12m to be so so…even if it means eating 2.5m….so save another 9.5m…

    They will definitely pick up Wong’s option for 2021 and Miller’s option becomes automatic with 110 appearances in 2019 and 2020 combined. He had 73 in 2019 so only needs 37 in 2020.

    I think all the talking points about money are just seeds to sow into the fans that the poor old Cardinals just cant afford big stars like Arenado so they can just not ever invest in them and thus try to convince the fans they dont have to pay up or enter into big name star talk.

    Well some folks believe that no one should be allowed to say what you just said so watch out.

    #120257
    Avatarforsch31
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    And some fans believe fans can question owners but other fans can’t question other fans.

    #120259
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    And some fans believe fans can question owners but other fans can’t question other fans.

    And in the true spirit of message boards, we are all wrong. 😉

    #120260
    thejagerthejager
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    i can question whoever i want whenever i want

    we can question all day HOW much the Cardinals should spend…we know they have the money to do it…it is all just about profit margin…and i am sorry but i could care less about whether the owners make an extra 1m because we don’t acquire Arenado… i am interested inthe baseball not the profit made from it

    yes it is a business…but i am not going to sit around and be passive aggressively made to feel guilty that the owners arent making enough money…

    they have the money, they can afford it without hitting the luxury tax, it wont wreck the farm system, and they DO trade young prospects all the time, the most successful years recently were when the farm was not the best,

    the best team was made up of top talent acquired via trades and FA, mixed with a few homegrown talents to keep the costs down a bit…

    2006, and 2011…World Series victors…compared to today:

    c- Yadi………..Yadi………..Yadi
    1- Pujols………Craig……….Goldy
    2- Miles……….DD………….Wong
    3- Rolen……….Furcal………Carp
    ss- Ecks……….Freese………DeJong
    lf- Taguchi…….Holliday…….Thomas
    cf- Edmonds…….Jay…………Bader
    rf- Encarnacion…Beltran……..Fowler
    (Jrod,Speizio)…(Berkman,Carp)..(Carlson,Edman)

    3 big stars……..3 big stars….1 big star

    4 from system…….5 from system……8 from system
    6 out of system…..5 out of system….2 out of system

    We are missing stars….internally or externally…it is obvious we are missing them and we are being told that this is the way we have always done things….which is not true…we succeeded the most when we USED our system to bring in what the farm did not produce….when we had Pujols we needed pitching and secondary hitters…when we didnt have Pujols but the young pitchers helped we brought in veteran hitters…. now…we have good pitching again and no star hitters outside of an old Goldy…and we need a true star

    Goldy is the Matt Holliday to our Pujols….or even Beltran to our Holliday..we just dont have ANYONE resembling a Pujols on the team…and even if we SAY Goldy is the Pujols…we dont have anyone resembling Holliday either

    they tried it with Ozuna…to see if he coudl be either…and he failed at both roles…now we are left with a second fiddle player being sold as a top flight guy…

    ————–

    and thanks Gscott for the update on the Miller option info, i did not see that when looking!

    Still, the base of what i proposed is still valid…structuring the deal creatively with the money for THIS year is entirely a do-able thing…and if we take out the concern for THIS year’s payroll and the specific figures involved the determination of whether it is possible or worth doing is entirely valid

    if the Cardinals raise payroll 10-15% that takes the place of the Miller contract staying around and then some

    I am just not going to

    #120261
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Possibly the Rockies are not willing to take on bad money, like Heyward, Carpenter or Fowler. Maybe they don’t want to take back any significant contracts at all. Entirely up to them, but, the sellers opt-out clock is ticking. They do know there’s a Q-offer comp pick at the end of Arenado’s opt-out being exercised.

    #120262
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    i could care less about whether the owners make an extra 1m

    If you could, then you should. You’ll feel better.

    #120263
    Avatarmudville
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    Nice post, Jags. I’m not 100% convinced that Mr. DeWitt is completely against raising the payroll. It’s possible that he was posturing as part of the negotiations, even though the negotiations are supposed to be over. From what I can gather (and surmise), I don’t think they’re interested in trading Marp. His offense this year could very well be as good as Arenado’s offense be would hitting at Busch III. No, the revenue at Ballpark Village is not being considered, but neither is the revenue from the rest of DeWitt’s holdings, and neither is the revenue from the minority’s holdings being considered. Whether they need more money or not, anyone would enjoy seeing some sort of return on their investment, otherwise it seems like charity, and there might be other charities that they prefer.

    Regardless of whether there ever was any substance to all this Arenado trade talk, it’s been a nice ride during the offseason. My one complaint would be that the rumors were based based upon ‘anonymous sources’ probably originating at the Rockies’ FO which means the rumors weren’t really rumors, rather they were fake news.

    #120264
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    the best team was made up of top talent acquired via trades and FA, mixed with a few homegrown talents to keep the costs down a bit…

    2006, and 2011…World Series victors…compared to today:

    c- Yadi………..Yadi………..Yadi
    1- Pujols………Craig……….Goldy
    2- Miles……….DD………….Wong
    3- Rolen……….Furcal………Carp
    ss- Ecks……….Freese………DeJong
    lf- Taguchi…….Holliday…….Thomas
    cf- Edmonds…….Jay…………Bader
    rf- Encarnacion…Beltran……..Fowler
    (Jrod,Speizio)…(Berkman,Carp)..(Carlson,Edman)

    3 big stars……..3 big stars….1 big star

    Does this roster matrix up there say that Allen Craig was our 1B for the 2011 World Series? Yikes.

    #120265
    AvatarOquendo11
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    Yes the Cardinals have money scheduled to come off the books in a couple of years.

    But they have been counting on that when they signed Goldschmidt to the extension.

    #120266
    AvatarHoustonlarry24
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    Never believed for a minute they would land him as they think they have hitters that can get it done. Just astounding to me but this is now the norm for this management group. Sad.

    #120268
    Avatargscottar
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    I tend to be a fiscally conservative person by nature. I am a financial officer for the company I work for so I don’t have a habit of spending other people’s money recklessly. I also know that sometimes a business has to spend money to make money.

    In the past few years publications like Forbes have mentioned the Cardinals as one of the most profitable teams in MLB. We also know that the Cardinals are usually second or third in attendance behind the Dodgers or Yankees. We know that the Cardinals are now in a $1 Billion TV deal and last year had the third highest rating from their regional sports network, after being first in 2018.

    Add all of that up and we know the Cardinals have a lot of revenue. Mr. DeWitt says the Cardinals are 11th in revenue. I am not sure what data he is using. I have found some information to indicate the Cardinals rank higher in that category.

    As I have said before I don’t have a big problem with the Cardinals having a payroll of $160M to $170M this year. Yes, I think it could be higher but the bigger problem is that a bulk of our payroll is being spent on unproductive players. It worked out last year but regularly having a majority of payroll going to unproductive players is not a sustainable model for success. Those unproductive players either need to rebound or the dollars need to be spent wiser in the future.

    https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2019/10/15/2019-mlb-regional-tv-ratings-in-prime-time-remain-solid/#39ca9b4d3f89

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatargscottar.
    #120270
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #120276
    Avatarbccran
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    My guess is that BDW is more concerned about giving up valuable prospects than he is about raising payroll some.
    He’s always looking downstream. I was talking to him at a party one time and mentioned several of my favorite prospects at the lower levels in the system. He proceeded to tell me what their strengths were, and what they needed to work on.
    I was more than a little surprised. He truly is just as much a baseball man as he is a businessman.

    #120278
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Mr. DeWitt was clear he is concerned about both – giving up top prospects (for the third year in a row) and taking on considerably more payroll. They are both showstoppers in the Arenado case, so which one may be more important than the other likely won’t matter in the end.

    #120289
    Avatargscottar
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    I agree that we shouldn’t give up top prospects for a third year in a row. That is one of the reasons why I would delay our next big ticket addition to be two years from now. That would give our current top prospects a chance to make it to St. Louis and would coincide with most of our bad contracts coming off of the books. I am not saying we shouldn’t be flexible enough to pounce if a great opportunity presents itself but I think we would be better in the long run waiting.

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