- This topic has 1,020 replies, 41 voices, and was last updated 2 months, 2 weeks ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Could the Cardinals trade Arenado and Nootbaar to the Dodgers for a little bit of nothing in return? Dodgers take on all the salary but we give them the $5 million from the Rockies.
No I don’t think so. Noot doesn’t have enough trade value to cover Arenado’s underwater contract. It is true that the Dodgers have spent like drunken sailors the last few years but they aren’t that drunk. The Cards will have to eat most of Arenado’s deal to move him, which begs the question to me why do it? Who exactly is he blocking? Gorman had a nice run for a month or two this summer but then reverted back to himself. I just don’t think the Cardinals are going to get much back for Arenado or Gray except saving a few bucks. That isn’t going to help the rebuild. It is just going to help the bottom line.
I will just go ahead and say it. The fans are getting royally screwed by the all of the mistakes made by this ownership group and front office the last decade.
Arenado for 2026 costs $22 million after the Rockies pay down. In 2027 he costs $17 million. Is that still underwater if a team doesn’t give up anything except a lottery ticket?
Factoring in the deferral the Cardinals will owe him $19.3M in 2026. He is owed $15M in 2027.
Yes that is very much underwater. I think they would have to pay down $20M to move him.
Arenado for 2026 costs $22 million after the Rockies pay down. In 2027 he costs $17 million. Is that still underwater if a team doesn’t give up anything except a lottery ticket?
Here are Arenado’s OPS & WAR for each of the last 3 years:
2023: .774 OPS | 2.2 WAR
2024: .719 OPS | 2.5 WAR
2025: .660 OPS | 1.1 WARIf you figure $8 million/WAR, and the decline factor, yes, that contract is very much underwater.
Which begs the question: If YOU were the GM of a contending team, would YOU trade for Nolan Arenado?
I would guess the answer would be a resolute no, no matter how much the Cardinals pay down. And that is why the Dodgers do not want him.
LACard Fan, good analysis on Arenado. I think the Cards are stuck with him. He’s going to be the third baseman going forward. Unless management eats the contract as “dead money” and releases him. Cardinals are in a bind. It stinks because ownership are being exposed as cheap skates. We are becoming the Pirates.
If the Cards can work out a deal to move Arenado I’d be in favor of it but if they cannot and 2026 begins with him as the third baseman that wouldn’t be the worst thing ever because he’s not blocking anyone right now and the team will be paying most of his salary anyway even if he is traded.
If we had someone ready to step up and play 3rd base I’d feel differently but the truth is he’s still the best we have and it’s not even close.
I suppose the situation could change but seriously, who do we have to put at third base that’s better right now? Gorman isn’t better than or even equal to Arenado at the plate or in the field. Fermin? Nah. Anybody else? Maybe move Donovan over there if we don’t need him at 2b or the of?
Arenado on the decline is still better than anybody else we have or could reasonably acquire. He’s expensive, yes, but what’s that expression, something like, well, you made your bed …
CIF said:
Arenado on the decline is still better than anybody else we have or could reasonably acquire.
Maybe not.
According to Fangraphs, Arenado is 36th among MLB third basemen in fWAR this season.
Their fWAR for Nolan is 0.7 in 2025. That is 10th on the Cardinals this year. The only regulars lower are Gorman and Walker.
For the other measure, I cannot figure out how to sort bWAR by position or even league. Across all players, one would need a 2.1 bWAR to rank in the top 200. Arenado’s current 1.0 bWAR is way below that.
(This is a corrected post.)
Golly, you’ve got me there Brian. I had no idea that every third baseman in the major leagues, plus a few bench sitters apparently, are better than Arenado.
Also interesting, the only Cardinal regulars lower than Arenado are Gorman and Walker, yet Gorman is the one they keep running out there to replace him.
I hereby withdraw my earlier comment.
It is almost mind-boggling how much Arenado has slipped. The eye test shows his defense is still top notch, but I am surprised his offense has fallen so much. He seems to have good mechanics and still reasonably good bat speed. My sense is his back issues and maybe other ailments hamper him more than he lets on. He’s a gamer and does not want to use excuses.
It also is puzzling to me how bad Walker and Gorman are, when they looked like such good prospects. I really thought at least one of them would be putting up numbers more like Pete Crow-Armstrong once they had the reps. And maybe they can still get there – I don’t know. There are probably studies that show guys of similar age and stats and how many of them end up building good careers. I recall some guys from back in the day that were top prospects, did not produce like predicted, but later on put it together and ended up having some good years. Bob Bailey was kind of like that – Alex Johnson – Bill Robinson. One of the most dramatic was Sandy Koufax.
Bottom line Mike-baseball is really hard at the big league level. Players respond differently. Some guys show up unheralded and tear it up. Other guys come highly regarded and struggle or flame out completely. That’s why they pay these egg heads all that money to invent metrics. They try to predict who is going to do what. They don’t seem any more successful than the players whose performance they are trying to predict. As our old buddy Joaquin Andujar used to say-ya just never know!.
The only potential 3B on the current roster with a higher WAR than Arenado is Donovan.
Donovan 2.7
Arenado 1.3
Fermin 0.8
Saggese 0.4
Gorman 0.3Wetherholt would be the wild card.
Interesting parallel.
2007 Cardinals: 78-84 record, new management coming in, and a third baseman that needed to be traded
2025 Cardinals: 78-84 record, new management coming in, and a third baseman that needed to be traded
History does indeed repeat itself #STLCards
— Thomas Gauvain (@thomasgauvain) September 29, 2025
There are probably studies that show guys of similar age and stats and how many of them end up building good careers. I recall some guys from back in the day that were top prospects, did not produce like predicted, but later on put it together and ended up having some good years. Bob Bailey was kind of like that – Alex Johnson – Bill Robinson. One of the most dramatic was Sandy Koufax.
Aaron Judge just got to AAA in his age 23 season, and wasn’t particularly good there, to give a more recent example.
I don’t feel it’s proper to completely give up on Walker yet. However, Gorman is what he is, which is a streaky left handed bat who will power into some dingers as a bench bat, but probably won’t be more than a 1-1.5 WAR player in the everyday lineup.
If somehow we are able to trade Arenado, and do not get a third base candidate in return I would think Saggese and Gorman would battle it out in the Spring for the starting assignment. Saggese might end up being a good player. Does not have the power potential Gorman has, but with maturity could develop that to some degree.
Odds are we start ‘26 with the veterans at the corner infield, Contreras and Arenado.
I would love to see Gorman and Walker adopt approaches where they try to hit to the opposite field all the time. I think they would hit better. That is only if they are still with the Cardinals.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.