- This topic has 1,131 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Bills best case is still moving Arenado, which is why this is a major thread.
The current 138mil drops to 116mil if Mo finds another HOU scenario and moves Nolan and his salary. It’s best case for Bill because we can still pitch, compete and sell tickets until the deadline in 25′ (“profitability”).
Moving Fedde and Helsley at the deadline reclaims 33% of ~15mil anyway, if it eventually plays out that way. Trading them now risks major stadium revenue until the deadline (66%).
Bill got lucky on one bronze bust, lets see if he can go 2 fer 2.
If Arenado is traded doesn’t that significantly weaken our offense?
At least on paper, that is.
Possibly Rat but I don’t think the Cardinals view it that way. They view it as Arenado costing $27M to play 3B while Gorman would cost less than $1M to play 3B.
My point about Donovan and Noot is they should not be thought of as part of the future. They will be gone by the time the future happens.
I’ll disagree bling. With 3 yrs control and a bottom 10 budget, Noot and Donny could be here longer if extended. I’ll lean toward TBD.
Donny will probably be here long term.
Noot is definitely TBD. Increasing arb salaries and regular IL visits are a bad combo.
Fortunately, the three seasons before their free agency will be the deciding factor. All the NTC’s will be gone.
I still think they should extend Helsley instead of trading him. If the Cardinals offer his 3yrs/$21M he’d almost have to take it. $21M would set him up for life, and he could still grab millions more in 3 years.
I don’t understand why a lot of posters think Gorman can take over at 3B. I know he played 3B coming up, but his defense at 2B is unreliable. I’m thinking Donovan will be a much better fielding third baseman, and he might keep getting better as a hitter, too. If Gorman can get over all the strikeouts, then let him play 1B.
I think Arenado should keep in mind that the Cardinals organization does not have to trade him.
mud said:
If the Cardinals offer his 3yrs/$21M he’d almost have to take it. $21M would set him up for life…
Respectfully, Helsley’s agent would laugh at that offer. Josh Hader got 5 years/$95 million. Fame can be fleeting for closers. Three years from now, Helsley might be Trevor Rosenthal. This is his chance to cash in.
They still want to win enough games in 2025 for fans to want to come. That will help their profitability, which matters more than expense. Stabilize revenue and you don’t have to cut expense as hard.
The Cardinals know the difference between the paid attendance and actual attendance last year.
I am sure their desire for a payroll purge is based on their forecasts of ticket sales in 2025. They’ve already seen the impact on concession sales.
The Cardinals acquired Fedde and refused to trade Kittredge at the deadline last year. Not only did fans not buy tickets because of the bold moves the Cardinals made at the trade deadline, fans who had already purchased tickets found more valuable things to do with their time than show up to Cardinals games they had already paid for.
Keeping Fedde and Helsley will not help offseason ticket sales (70% of ticket sales) one bit. Especially when you factor in that the Cardinals have told the whole world they are doing a reset in 2025 and aren’t planning to compete. They have also leaked to the press their number one priority in trading Arenado is a payroll purge.
If Arenado stays then Gorman either has to play 2B everyday or DH everyday or some combination. If he plays 2B where is Donovan at? If he is at DH then where is Burly or Contreras when they aren’t at 1B? That is why I think Gorman could be traded or Noot could be traded so Donovan could move to LF.
If Arenado stays, Gorman is 2B, Donovan is LF and Nootbaar is CF. In that situation, the person who sits is Siani, whose bat doesn’t play, though his defense does. Burleson should be DH, he does not belong in the outfield at all (except our wonderful analytics staff thinks he is great).
It’s best case for Bill because we can still pitch, compete and sell tickets until the deadline in 25′ (“profitability”).
Cardinals aren’t going to sell any extra tickets if they are competing with the same roster they had last year after the deadline, minus a few key contributors.
So you think “extra tickets” are Bills current concern ???
Subtract Helsleys saves alone, and tickets could TANK, early in 25′. Everyone follows the W/L column.
Subtract Helsleys saves alone, and tickets could TANK, early in 25′. Everyone follows the W/L column.
Yeah, I don’t get the ‘get rid of Helsley’ chatter. He is projected to get LESS than Finnegan in arbitration, probably due to length of career, despite having a much better season. The dude is a bargain if there ever was one.
I guess they weren’t expecting a rebuild when they signed (or acquired) all those no-trade contracts, but that’s the cards they have to play at the present time.
They could save a little salary expense by getting rid of Mo and replacing him with a 12 pack of Michelob lite, lol.
I don’t understand why a lot of posters think Gorman can take over at 3B. I know he played 3B coming up, but his defense at 2B is unreliable. I’m thinking Donovan will be a much better fielding third baseman, and he might keep getting better as a hitter, too. If Gorman can get over all the strikeouts, then let him play 1B.
I think Arenado should keep in mind that the Cardinals organization does not have to trade him.
I think you answered your own question. Gorman’s defense at 2B is unreliable. He is/was a natural 3B so that seems the logical spot for him. Donovan can be gold glove caliber wherever you put him. Besides this is all about money. Gorman is scheduled to make $26M less than Arenado in 2025 which is why the Cardinals want to make the move.
The Cardinals don’t have to trade Arenado but they desperately want to. As each day passes it looks like they may be stuck with him. He may regret blocking that Houston trade.
Yeah, I don’t get the ‘get rid of Helsley’ chatter. He is projected to get LESS than Finnegan in arbitration, probably due to length of career, despite having a much better season. The dude is a bargain if there ever was one.
Helsley is projected to make just under $7M in 2025. Finnegan made $5.1M last year but was non-tendered by the Nationals and is now a free agent. I’m not sure why you think he will make more than Helsley in 2025. I would be surprised.
Helsley is a bargain for a team trying to contend. He is a trade chip for a team rebuilding.
So you think “extra tickets” are Bills current concern ???
Subtract Helsleys saves alone, and tickets could TANK, early in 25′. Everyone follows the W/L column.
The tickets are already tanking in 2025. In the early months of last year, and in August & September, we were hearing announced crowds of 30,000+, while we were estimating the actual crowds at less than 10,000.
The difference was the people who bought their tickets prior to the season.
Those people won’t be throwing their money away again this year. A large portion of them will not be renewing their season tickets, and those that purchased smaller ticket packages simply won’t. Why pay for games you don’t attend?
I am guessing the Cardinals will become a welfare recipient in 2025, and once the welfare checks start, DeWitt won’t have incentive to worry about crowd sizes anymore.
I don’t understand why a lot of posters think Gorman can take over at 3B. I know he played 3B coming up, but
The last time Gorman played more 3B than 2B was 2019 in A level.
So he played the position as a teenager. Assuming he can be an everyday third baseman in MLB is not justified at all. Walker played primarily 3B more recently (2022) and at a higher level (AA). I am not saying he’d be able to do it any more than Gorman, the speed of the game in ML is so much greater, most especially the hot corner, but just pointing it out.
If they now want to consider Gorman as 3B of the future, then do the intelligent thing and have him do a year in AAA playing 3B every day. Let him get used to the speed of that game. Work on his approach at the plate at the same time. Then decide if he should advance or if we need to keep looking. If Arenado is gone, use a placeholder like Fermin in 2025. That is what a reset year is for.
Gorman has at least been an infielder. 3B is comparable to 2B when it comes to fielding grounders and line drives. Gorman’s issue at 2B was range. That won’t hurt him quite as much at 3B. I agree he needs reps. But this isn’t the same as telling Walker he needs to learn to play outfield and then sending him there half a season later.
I do expect there to be a fairly massive difference in the level of defense between Arenado and Gorman. But, Gorman could be average there, especially given all the work he put in at 2B to increase his range. And he absolutely could outhit Arenado (emphasis on could).
bling said:
If they now want to consider Gorman as 3B of the future, then do the intelligent thing and have him do a year in AAA playing 3B every day.
This comes from the same guy who last year at this time insisted that Winn should spend all of 2024 at Triple-A.
Any major issue with Gorman won’t be his defense at third base. He is as ready as he is ever going to be. Sink or swim time.
Brians right on this Bling. Gorman has to hit at Ml level. They’re going to play him everyday at 3rd. At the end of the year they assess what they have. No predictions here except he will hit homeruns and strikeout at higher rates than most players. Will the k rate be acceptable? Than they decide if his defense at 3rd is good enough along with his hitting to go into 2026 with him. You don’t go into 2026 with a big ? Mark beside his name.
The main thing for Gorman will be his mental acuity to move on. He put up an .805 OPS in 2023. If he can do that again, he will be the starting 3B until he becomes a free agent.
Gorman, Libby, Walker; if these guys don’t step forward, the “core” we are building around, is way back there.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.