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Hochman: Cardinals made right move by not moving top prospects for Juan Soto https://t.co/MqLKToEi9U
— STLToday Sports News (@STL_SportsNews) August 2, 2022
There’s really no way to say with any certainty that not making the move is “right.” The jury is most definitely still out until the next two years pass, and possibly quite a bit longer. If Soto goes nuclear and OPSes 1.100 for two years and none of Gorman, Carlson, Walker, etc ever make an All Star team it will look downright foolish.
Yet the most likely scenario is that Soto is great (but not that great) for two years, San Diego does well but doesn’t win a World Series and the Cards get a guy or two who makes the All Star team while they make the playoffs the next few years simply due to the terrible Central. Seriously, Pittsburgh may be the second best team in 2023 and they might not be a 70 win talent team then. It’s gonna be ugly.
My feelings on the soto deal after the fact is that if the Cardinals not wanting to package Carlson along with other prospects kept us from getting him, then I feel that was a terrible move. Carlson is a pretty good player but personally I don’t think he will ever be really good and especially not great. I could be wrong but I doubt it. You can find Carlson’s in the draft every year. Now in hindsight with them trading bader, it seems a nice move but soto would have filled an outfield spot and nootbar could play center about as good as Carlson. Plus not hard to find other similar guys for a time. It may not have been able to top padres offer anyway but to not try it, seems stupid when the player in soto is far far above Carlson. I think the front office just goes through the motions on these big type deals. I know they got goldy and arenado but neither of those players were very young when they got them and potentially soto is much better offensively going forward. Time will tell I guess far as soto goes. Time will also tell whether these prospects are really all that. At least in the short term, the padres are trying to win big. The Cardinals are just trying to be middling.
That’s sort of how I feel, too, Willie. Carlson has shown flashes and is on a nice streak now. I suspect he settles in as a “Matt Carpenter of the OF” where he OPSes .800+ with solid defense and a good on base percentage. A star? Perhaps not. But a very solid ballplayer. Walker and Gorman could be All Stars, or could be average players. Winn has a range from bust to Frankie Lindor on him, IMO. Graceffo, Hence, Libby and McGreevy could be our #1-4 in a World Series some day or could be as frustrating as the Weaver-Flaherty-Reyes-Gonzales combo was over the last few years. It’s hard to say.
That said, I’m ok with keeping them unless the perfect opportunity comes up. Soto may have been just that. We will see if it turns out to be a foolish move or a smart one.
I really hate Carlson getting the “JD Drew treatment”. He’s only 23, not everyone is a star when they first arrive and he’s above average. Everyone expected Drew to be the second coming of Jesus, and when he was “only” 24% above average and playing with Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen he was never good enough. I know injuries never helped him, but he was a good player and better after he left St. Louis. I won’t complain about trading him, since it brought Wainwright, but he was always very under appreciated in his time in STL because everyone always expected him to be something more. I think Carlson is above average now, and will still be better. The OF defense with O’Neill, Bader, Carlson was elite. I worry now with Carlson in CF, where he’s more average, the OF defense could take a hit, but Nootbaar’s play in RF is going to be key.
Where they go with the OF in 2023 and beyond will be interesting. I think Carlson can survive a few years in CF, but would be preferred in RF. Walker I believe is going to force them to look at him next year, maybe early, and he played LF last night in Springfield.Carlson had a terrible April. Since then he’s slashing .272/.344./.469 for a 131 wRC+. That’ll play for sure.
I think the expectations were set unnecessarily high by Mo a couple years ago when he compared Dylan to Albert Pujols and Oscar Taveras. That’s too high a bar and it’s ok if Carlson only becomes a 3-4ish WAR outfielder for many years. I like him a lot better in left than center.
Far as Carlson getting star jd drew treatment. That’s the breaks of being a high draft pick. I thought Drew would blossom into something more but he didn’t. A pretty good solid player. Carlson to me has always to me seemed to be about that. Cardinal management by letting it leak that he was being asked about for soto, has just put a lens on Carlson. I don’t have an issue with it cause I feel he was very expendable, just as much as any other player on team not named arenado or Goldschmidt. Far as being like carpenter, I don’t think he will be that player. He doesn’t have the plate discipline at this time anyway. I also don’t think he will be as valuable. Defensively he’s solid. Has a great arm and is smart in that area, something bader wasn’t always was. The difference is that bader could make a lot more plays on balls that might ordinarily drop on a average center fielder. Carlson is going to make far fewer of those and the ones he would make, would generally be far easier for bader. But like I said, he’s solid enough for now.
Phew…. I breathed a sigh of relief when I heard it was The Padres that got Soto. I would have been upset if the FO raided the system of seven or eight prospects.
I think that the Cards get a Grade of A for the deadline trades.
19 pages of moot ideas and comments. I think that everyone expressed some ideas…. stats and had some fun.
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