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I’d have a big problem including Carlson, Gorman and Winn in a package. Libby and Graceffo not so much.
And 25, it is a rental. Anything less than 3 full years to me is a rental. We can agree to disagree on that one.
With five players of that pedigree, all having been top 10 prospects in the system, including two former no. 1’s, the odds that at least one of them exceed expectations and become the next Sandy Alcantara (or more) are decent, even if one or two others flop. If so, then the cost to have acquired two years of Soto could look worse over the long haul.
For me, getting Soto is really about the near team because we can’t assume he will stay long term. Do the Cards become a World Series contender with Soto or do they focus on their current path of building strength from within and hope to seriously contend later? Do they add another star on offense now and hope the pitching can recover some other way?
Personally I don’t think the current Cardinals have enough pitching to be a WS contender – Soto or not.
I don’t mean to be overdramatic, but this decision could change the course of the franchise for years to come, good or bad. The DeWitt group haven’t been big risk-takers, in part because the relatively modest payroll leaves little room for covering up big mistakes that some other clubs can spend themselves out of. As much as some on social media make the trade appear to be a “no-brainer”, it isn’t. Really tough call to make…
Personally I don’t think the current Cardinals have enough pitching to be a WS contender – Soto or not.
I don’t mean to be overdramatic, but this decision could change the course of the franchise for years to come.
I completely agree. There’s not enough MLB ready pitching talent to sustain a World Series run, and I don’t think enough is available on the trade market either. FWIW my gut feeling is that adding Walker, Winn, Burleson, etc simply maintains the status quo going forward as Goldy and Arenado age and guys like Edman, Bader, O’Neill likely move on. Finding pitching is going to be the key and to do so without damaging the lineup will require some deft maneuvering.
I also agree that the decision will certainly have long term ramifications. Hopefully Mo, Girsch and the Dewitts make the right call.
Of course it would dramatically change the course of the franchise. We would be mortgaging the future for one player for 2 1/2 stinking years. It borders on insanity to me.
I am all for being aggressive and “going for it” but there is a way to do that without destroying the farm system. One of these days the Cardinals will need to go big in free agency instead of overpaying marginally average players like Matz and the rest of the low hanging fruit crowd.
I think we should acquire one more rental starter and call it a day. Rodon would be my top choice. Even as a rental his price would be somewhat high but we wouldn’t have to gut the entire system like we would with Soto.
There is no guarantee any of these minor league players turn into much more than role players.. dylan carlson was our big prospect everyone was high on and he is decent. Gorman isnt bad but i dont have a lot of faith in him or walker becoming superstars which we seem to be banking on. If we get soto for this year and 2 more even we are contenders. Maybe higher chances next year and year after. But if we get soto.. arenado opts in and a lot of money comes off books next year along with 21 mil from the rockies and improvements can be made where needed. If we just stand by and not go for it and hope that walker and winn make an appearance next year or the year after… after goldy is 2 yrs older and arenado is possibly opted out and gone then we are again going to just be a relevant team at best. I dont see winn, walker, gorman, burleson, carlson, libby, 35yr old goldy and whoever being a world series contender in the next 2 or 3 yrs. We know Mo is fine with just being a wild card team every year but this is why hes constantly ridiculed. We have a very hot goldy and arenado now… we dont in 2 years. So if we dont make the trade then we basically just accept again that we are ok with being mediocre and im sick of that. These farm system guys will be replaced like they always are. Libby wasnt even drafted by us.. we will always find players. We will not always have some of the talent we have now. Not to mention its also molina pujols and likely wainos last go at this. And if we were to win a world series or even 2 with soto… no one will be upset or regret trading jordan walker unless he becomes the next mike trout or aaron judge and even then how many world series wins do those 2 have?
In the long term, I’d rather have Carlsen and Gorman in the bank than Soto for two years. I could live with a mix of any of the others.
But as a number of you have already pointed out, this deal, however it shakes out, does not solve our pitching problem.
Hey, perhaps we could peddle Flaherty and let somebody else worry about that question mark.
I note some of you keep saying Arenado will likely opt out if this deal doesn’t go through. Where does that come from. My memory is a bit blurry but didn’t he say publicly some time back he wouldn’t opt out? Or am I misremembering?
I was about to mention the same thing CIF. I don’t think acquiring Soto is mandatory for Arenado to opt in. Personally, I think the chances of Arenado opting out are less than 10% regardless of what happens with Soto. Even if he did opt out we would have Gorman or Walker to plug in at 3B, assuming they aren’t traded today.
Of course it would dramatically change the course of the franchise. We would be mortgaging the future for one player for 2 1/2 stinking years. It borders on insanity to me.
I am all for being aggressive and “going for it” but there is a way to do that without destroying the farm system. One of these days the Cardinals will need to go big in free agency instead of overpaying marginally average players like Matz and the rest of the low hanging fruit crowd.
Of course it seems like insanity. But prospects are prospects for a reason…they are prospective MLB players. Think that this group offers can’t miss potential? Think back to this group of youngsters going into 2014…
Oscar Taveras, Carlos Martinez, Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, Rob Kaminsky, Marco Gonzales, Alex Reyes, James Ramsey, Carlson Kelly, Randal Grichuk. Recently graduated from the rankings included Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, and Matt Adams.
Now, consider the scenario where a high, high end talent was available via trade. I hate to use Trout as the example because I think he’s in another stratosphere from Soto even, and he had a little more control yet. But 20-23 year olds putting up multiple 7+ WAR seasons is very very unusual too. If the Cards had traded, say, Taveras, Martinez, Wong, Reyes and Rosenthal, we’d have been very antsy and wondered if we gave up too much. Heck, three of those guys made All Star teams going forward and there were multiple Gold Gloves, big hits and saves in those players. Yet would the Cards have clearly been a worse team for losing those 5 players, even if it meant only having Trout for 3ish years? I’ll let you decide that, but the call would be easy for me.
Of course, some of our prospects may turn out better than the guys we had in 2014. Or maybe none will. That’s the gamble you take. Soto could be what he is, regress a little…or take even another step forward into quasi-Bonds territory. It’s a gamble too. What it’s not is “bordering on insanity.” We may disagree on our desire to take a chance on the future but I can respect your opinion on it.
I’ll also say that I agree that I’m tired of the low hanging fruit. Big contracts are a risk but so is the reward. We’ve missed on a lot of mid-upper tier players who panned out thanks to being overly cautious. I’ll edit to add that we’ve avoided some major potholes too…that’s part of the game.
Hey, perhaps we could peddle Flaherty and let somebody else worry about that question mark.
Yep, I thought about that. Flaherty for Snell? San Diego gets some salary relief and we get an actual working pitcher, even if he’s not been as good as hoped for. Both are controllable for one more year. Jack would get to return to his California roots, too.
Well i guess im basing it on the fact that he was sick of his last organization doing nothing to improve the team and him, blackmon and trevor story couldnt do it alone kinda like what him and goldy are expected to do. But on that note.. when does arenado have to opt in or out by? Because if the cards have some offseason acquisitions in mind like a good catcher or maybe good shortstop and definitely better pitching and arenado does indeed opt in and walker and burleson are able to come up next year then i could get on board with that. Catcher position will be a must and a good one at this trade deadline was my ideal trade target. Guess we will see how today shakes out. But if we knew arenado was opting in now.. it might change how i view some of this. But if we pass on soto and arenado does walk then those minor leaguers have too much to overcome to have a shot in next few years and its just a waste of having arenado and goldys talent here.
Carlson is 23 years old. He hasn’t entered into his most productive years yet. He’s under control through 2026. Gorman is only 22 and is in the first year of a 6 year control period. Walker and Winn are both 20 years old and only a year or two away from the big club, where they are under control for 6 years. Arenado loves the atmosphere and traditions of the Cardinals. He’s around for 5 more years after this year. He’s not going to opt out. He’ll be a great mentor for the young guys.
We need to concentrate on pitching, pitching, and more pitching. And someone for them to throw to next season.
I am not dismissing the potential impact of Soto. My problem is the limited time we would have him. If we had him locked up for 8 to 10 years then it would make more sense to me. I would say there is a 1% chance that DeWitt would authorize the $500 million Boras will be demanding after 2024.
The Cardinals do need to alter their business model some and become more risk averse but this kind of deal takes the business model and obliterates it. We aren’t the Yankees.
I am not dismissing the potential impact of Soto. My problem is the limited time we would have him. If we had him locked up for 8 to 10 years then it would make more sense to me. I would say there is a 1% chance that DeWitt would authorize the $500 million Boras will be demanding after 2024.
The Cardinals do need to alter their business model some and become more risk averse but this kind of deal takes the business model and obliterates it. We aren’t the Yankees
Yet over the course of the deal that seems impossible to make, the Cards would be committing to, what…$35ish million per year? For a guy whose baseline is 60% better than league average and could be as much as 100% better.
That’s where fans do the owner’s work for them. I don’t know about you, but I’m happier with BDW committing $35M a year for Soto than spending it piecemeal on two or three or even four averageish players. The idea that the Cards couldn’t afford to pay Soto is patently false. The luxury tax is already at $230M. The Cards are spending roughly 2016 money on their payroll this year. I get some of the why, on a year to year level…yet the team has consistently had record revenues. They’ve bumped spending some, to be sure…but don’t you think it would be easily possible to do more? If the goal wasn’t to sneak into the playoffs every year, it would certainly be on the table. Yet here we are with the same goal, thanks to playoff expansion and a weak division.
I do have to assume this organization knows where Arenado stands at this point and should factor into their thought process. And i do agree we need pitching but unless we go get 1 or 2 more starters.. might as well go for soto and get another rental pitcher per usual. I guess we will see what happens but like i said before.. my ideal trade would have been murphy or contreras and a couple pitchers. But i guess that must be their offseason plan. I just dont want to waste goldy and arenados good years waiting for players to develop when they may not.
We can compete at 190 or 200 mil.. i dont think we can at 160 anymore. I said it a couple days ago on here. Id have to think adding soto would almost pay for himself.
Looking like the Cards may be working their way out of the bidding. We will find out whether this turns out to be a mistake or not.
The #STLCards have yet to include Dylan Carlson in a multi-player offer for Juan Soto.
Unless that changes in the hours ahead, Soto is likely to become a Padre or Dodger. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 2, 2022
Im sure its true… lets go get another scrub and change absolutely nothing with this horrible team. Maybe we can win another 17 straight
The point is, you don’t want to have Goldilocks and the 8 dwarfs, 25. Look at the Giants roster when they won 2 World Series recently. In 2014 Posey led the team with 22 home runs and 89 RBI. They were balanced up and down. A lineup where the opposing pitchers didn’t have a rest.
You win with good pitching and good defense. The offense will be there with Goldy, Arenado, Carlson, Gorman, Edman, O’Neill, Walker, and Winn.
I will laugh bitterly when the Pads manage to keep two of their top young guys and it turns out the Cards balked at what most would consider to be a reasonable price.
Source: #Padres on the verge of acquiring Juan Soto. Deal is believed to be nearing final stages. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 2, 2022
25 said:
That’s where fans do the owner’s work for them.
It would be a different world if the organization would make their multi-million dollar commitments based on fan feedback, but that isn’t real.
There is also the negative side of fan feedback. If Soto goes elsewhere, some angry fans will threaten to boycott the team, but it seems to have no effect, just like when the Cards passed on other recent “generational” players Harper and Machado. As far as I have seen over the years, fans “holding owners accountable” has failed.
I know in my case, I temper every comment with the reality of what the Cardinals will do and what they probably will not. There is absolutely no reason to expect them to start spending like the Dodgers or Yankees.
I may not like it, but I know I cannot act as if it isn’t a huge factor in how they behave. It doesn’t mean I let them off the hook. I am just being realistic. Every owner could spend beyond the cap if they so chose, but they have only marginal incentive to do so.
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