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Corbin is getting hit hard again tonight. This time by the Mets. Alonso has yanked one. Soto walked in his only plate appearance so far.
Corbin has good velocity, but he has missed his spots badly. There is something really amiss with him. It’s mechanical and mental.
In Juan Soto trade talks, #STLCards haven’t been willing to include Dylan Carlson *and* their top prospects in the same offer — at least, thus far. Negotiations are reaching a critical point. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 2, 2022
Hoping we do not bring in Soto as I think it might make the Ozuna trade look like a minor mistake in comparison. Get a decent pitcher or two without mortgaging the future, although maybe that is not possible.
I’m still not sure I get this. Soto is probably the surest bet in the game to be a great hitter for the foreseeable future. Walker is exciting, but it’s worth noting that some scouts do believe he will start to accrue strikeouts as he moves levels thanks to the long levers he has. The power is legit, no doubt. I think Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton are the best case scenario for Walker. Note that both those are lesser players than Soto. The others guys may all be wild cards.
My excitement over the potential deal ebbs and flows a bit. I think if I knew that Dewitt would up payroll a bit to add some pitching I’d be quite thrilled.
Well the bats already said they are willing to keep him for now so anything less than what they want and it’s not going to happen with soto. I don’t blame them either.
Walker had a low 90s fastball in high school according to his scouting report on the 2020 Cardinals top 30 prospects on MLB.com.
The guy on the MLB Network just made a good point. He said the Dodgers or Padres might be willing to overpay just to make sure Soto doesn’t end up with the other team.
stlcard25 said:
I think Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton are the best case scenario for Walker. Note that both those are lesser players than Soto.
I duuno about that. Judge is pretty darned good. This season, he is leading the majors in home runs, RBI, runs scored and slugging. His career OPS is .958. In comparison, Soto’s career OPS is .963. And Judge is a much better defensively.
If Walker could become Judge, I’d be elated and I’d keep him.
Note that I said that they are the *best case scenario* for Walker. I’ll also note that Soto is still younger than Judge was when he made his MLB debut. Soto’s average scenario is probably equivalent to Judge’s known peak. What’s Soto’s best case? It’s a little scary to think about because he’s already so good, but think peak Albert or extrapolate his 2020 over a full year and you’re about there. For the record, that’s .351/.490/.695. It could be even better.
Again, I like Walker and would love to keep him but the chances that he even approaches the numbers that Soto has are low. Most likely he’s “just” an All Star quality corner OF, which is useful to be sure. If you can turn that into a potential inner circle Hall of Famer (which is Soto’s career arc thus far), I think you have to seriously consider it.
I still think Winn, Liberatore, Baez and O’Neill should be the offer and it should be enough for the Nationals.
My bottom line remains this. If Judge is comparable to Soto (and the numbers suggest he is) and Walker’s supposed ceiling is Judge, and Walker is already raking at Double-A at the age of 21, I don’t trade six lower cost years of him (plus a boatload of others) for two-plus years of an expensive Soto.
The money has to be considered in every analysis. The money not spent on Soto can improve the team elsewhere. We know the Cardinals relatively-frugal payroll management will continue.
Hopefully, if they do get Soto, they can keep Walker out of the deal. But if I was the Nationals, I might demand he be included.
I agree with Brian. Spending too much on one player, even a great player, can hamstring an organization for years.
Look at the Angels acquisition of Puhols. Not a perfect analogy but you get the point. I think they made the playoffs ONE time with Albert on their roster?
Padres and Nats are talking about a package of both Juan Soto and Josh Bell and word is they are being aggressive. @barrysvrluga suggested there's momentum
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) August 2, 2022
Given the way the Cards have spent free agent money since the Fowler deal, I’m not sure them having more money to play with is always a positive. Lol
I’d be curious to know your personal breaking point for acquiring a player like Soto, Brian. Is it including Walker? Would you trade Carlson and/or Gorman in his place? Or is the pitching simply too pressing to bother with a Soto?
For me, Soto is 2003 Albert Pujols and I think for a player like that you consider measures that you otherwise wouldn’t. But I understand if others would be more cautious.
We’re cautious, 25, because it’s a rental. Giving away many, many years of controlled high end talent for 2 1/2 years of one player doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.
Two and a half years is not a rental. Lol. That’s three trips through the playoffs. Quintana is a rental.
I’ll go back to this question…how many of the Cards’ high end youngsters were in the organization two and a half years ago? That should give you some idea as to how quickly a system can replenish.
I dont get to watch minor league ball but why isnt anyone very high on Burleson? BA is .332 and 17 HRs in triple A… sure looks like hes ready to make an appearance in the Majors…
Not to mention id be ok with Cards using same prospects and go after Happ and Contreras. I know Cubs may not be excited to trade with us but you get 2 bats and 2 needed positions for probably similar to cost of Soto. That seems to be the dodgers and padres back up plan… rather that be our plan A
25, it is hard for me to say, but I really think Walker is a keeper. Here is an example of what an industry person believes it would take to get Soto, without Walker included. The price in this poker game is awfully high.
Giving up five players – two MLB starters today plus three top prospects who have high odds of having good MLB futures. A starting center fielder, starting second baseman, two future starting pitchers and a future starting shortstop.
Here is my best GUESS on what the actual return for Juan Soto will be:
Padres: Hassell III, Wood, Abrams, Merrill, Morejon , Susana for Soto, Bell & Finnegan
Dodgers: Lux, Miller, Outman, Bush, Pages for Soto.
Cardinals: Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore, Winn, Graceffo for Soto.
— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) August 2, 2022
25, it is hard for me to say, but I really think Walker is a keeper. Here is an example of what an unbiased industry person believes it would take to get Soto. The price in this poker game is awfully high.
Starting center fielder, starting second baseman, two future starting pitchers and a future starting shortstop
I hear you. It would be a tough price to pay, for sure. Of course that package would give me pause, and I’d rather sub someone like Hence in for Graceffo simply because I think that Graceffo is a safer bet to be decent although Hence has a higher ceiling. If that was the group, your starting lineup would be:
Edman, Goldy, Soto, Arenado, O’Neill, Yepez/Burleson, Yadi, Dejong, Nootbaar (Bader when healthy)
With Walker still in the wings as an OFer by next year, and Herrera as the catcher. Thompson, Woodford and McGreevy would be your top starters in the minors. The priority would then become outfitting a major league staff and finding an extra OFer with a glove unless you just plug in Nootbaar.
So the question becomes, is that a better team in 2023 or 2024 than one where you try to fit all the prospects in? 2025 would be a consideration too. Past that, I’m not sure you can figure on anything for certain as players and systems change so much in that span.
So would I do that trade? Probably, yes. And I think that’s the strongest of the three packages listed. I’m just not sure if the Cards would.
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