Josh Donaldson thread

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  • #74048
    Cardinals27
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    I would rather sign Moustakas, (lefty power bat, no QO, no injury history) or trade for Seager, especially if Fowler could be included. Definitely say no to 3 years for Donaldson.

    #74049
    Brian Walton
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    Since both Moustakas and Donaldson were traded during the season, neither has a qualifying offer attached.

    #74050
    Cardinals27
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    I prefer Moustakas either way. It would be nice to take away an option for the Brewers, while getting a lefty power bat we need. It might add enough to possibly trade Carpenter.

    #74051
    Cardinals27
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    Thought we had a previous Moustakas thread I couldn’t find it.

    #74054
    Brian Walton
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    C27, I bumped it up. (For next time, the search is easy. Click on the red FORUMS word on the right of the red bar at the top of the page. You will be taken to a screen where you can select between the Open forum and Members forum. There is also a search box there that works for the forums pretty well. That is how I found the old Moustakas thread quickly. Much better than paging through lists of old threads.)

    #74123
    Brian Walton
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    #75085
    gscottar
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    #75087
    Brian Walton
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    Boom!

    #75088
    Onyxgem
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    1:35pm: The Braves are in agreement with Donaldson on a one-year, $23MM contract, Rosenthal tweets.

    #75089
    Onyxgem
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    so would one consider that strike out #1 for Cards front office

    #75090
    philcron77
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    Thought he was about a 16-18 mil per player. Braves paying extra for only a 1 year contract.

    #75091
    Onyxgem
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    It doesn’t bother me one bit as he seemed to be always injured but sure seemed like a lot of people thought sure fire guy cards would sign.

    #75092
    gscottar
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    I don’t mind missing out on him. His health issues are red flags to me. Would much rather have Goldy.

    #75093
    Cardinals2016
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    I kind of thought he would be the second choice in Philadelphia if they miss out on Machado. Good to see the market moving…

    #75094
    NJ315
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    Well down goes Plan B now Plan C is Goldy which I have no interest. Plan A is still my choice.

    #75100
    stlcard25
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    It doesn’t bother me one bit as he seemed to be always injured but sure seemed like a lot of people thought sure fire guy cards would sign.

    Always? You mean the stretch where he played 158 games three years in a row and then 155 in 2016? He has had the calf issue the last two years, but it really wasn’t until this past season he really could even be called injury prone.

    This deal is a steal for the Braves. They’re NL favorites if they can upgrade their rotation at all.

    #75101
    Bob Reed
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    “I don’t mind missing out on him. His health issues are red flags to me. Would much rather have Goldy.”

    But wouldn’t you agree that it depends on what the Cards have to give up in talent for Goldy? And I’m guessing the cost would be (will be) prohibitive. Like, they give up so much that the team is barely even improved in the short run, and is possibly much weakened going forward.

    I see it like this: say you get Goldy. That means Carp MUST move to third base. Which makes Gyorko a likely trade chip. (For public relations, the Arizona fans need to see at least one productive MLB player come back to the Diamondbacks in the trade.)

    So the Cards deal Gyorko plus someone very very good like Dakota Hudson, plus an underpublicized, high-upside, low-minors sweetener like Leandro Cedeno or Jhon Torres. Maybe even another sweetener, too, like Carlos Soto or Julio Rodriguez. Now, Carpenter at 3rd base is a liability in the field — and an injury risk, I would say.

    Anyway the upgrade from Gyorko to Carp in total value is 1 to 1/5 wins. At first base, the upgrade from Carp to Goldy is another win. (Of course, Carp was as good as Goldy in 2018. But from 2013-2018, he’s been worth one win less per season, according to Fangraphs. So one win seems a fair estimate.)

    So the total upgrade stands at 2-2.5 wins. That might be worth the trade. But in this scenario you also lose Dakota Hudson. And he stood to be one of your 2 or 3 best relievers. Or maybe even a rotation pitcher. With so few reliable relievers currently on hand, Hudson was worth roughly 1-2 wins to the Cards. So the total upgrade from the trade would be somewhere between zero and 1.5 wins.

    And then Goldy is gone after 2019, and you don’t have Dakota Hudson for the next 5 years, or Cedeno/Torres ever. (Yes, I’m just spitballing with these names, but I guarantee this is what the trade is going to look like. Maybe not these specific players. But equivalent talents, certainly.)

    Love Goldy, hate the idea of overpaying for one year of him. And hate the idea of giving him a massive contract extension into his mid-late 30’s.

    #75102
    Onyxgem
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    I don’t see the Cards getting Goldy either really…think they might actually be all in on Harper, but when they finish 2nd (and we know it won’t be first) they will come up with excuses that they tried, blah blah blah, sign some garbage and miss playoffs for 4th straight year…

    #75103
    gscottar
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    I think our FO realizes that they may not have the luxury of worrying about 2020 to 2023. They had better get 2019 fixed and go from there. Get Goldy and worry about 2020 when it gets here. I’m not saying make a stupid overpay but yes acquiring even one year of a MVP candidate is going to cost some prospects, no doubt.

    Too many times we hear “we can’t do this because of ABC” or “we can’t do that because of whatever”. I think Mo is smart enough to know that we had better make the playoffs next year or it could be someone else’s problem to have.

    I’m not saying it is Goldy or bust and I’m certainly not saying it is Harper or bust. There are many ways to improve the team. What isn’t an option is to just hoard prospects and cash and hope for the best. There is too much at stake in 2019.

    #75105
    Bob Reed
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    I could see the Cards getting Harper for $37M per year. And then in two years the Brewers or Cubs sign Trout for $55M a year, which would be a much, much, much, much smarter deal. That’s how things are going.

    That’s how the last couple of years have gone.
    Cards sign 2-2.5 WAR Fowler for 5 years and $80M.
    Brewers sign 4-5 WAR Lorenzo Cain one year later for the exact same contract.
    Cards trade for 2-3 WAR Marcel Ozuna.
    Brewers get 4-5 WAR Christian Yelich.

    We should learn from the Brewers. Be opportunistic, not impatient. We do not want Bryce Harper, not for 10+ years, and not for $35-40M a year at any length. He is not that special. He just isn’t.

    Per fangraphs Harper has been a 4.5 win player for his career. At B-Ref it’s just 4 WAR per year. He’s not anything like Mookie or Mike. Those are generational talents. This is not a generational talent. He’s injury-prone, inconsistent, and is already declining on defense. Probably be washed up by age 32 or 33.

    #75109
    gscottar
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    I could see the Cubs spending that on Trout, assuming he doesn’t go back East to the Phillies or Yanks. I would be flabbergasted if the Brewers waded into those deep waters but your point is well taken. The front offices of those two teams has been smarter and more aggressive at the right time than we have been.

    #75112
    PadsFS
    Participant

    That’s disappointing. I really wanted to see Donaldson as the Cards big addition. Our bullpen is a big issue imo whereas our offense isn’t as big of a deal. A one-year deal is pretty nice for the Braves. Without Donaldson, I don’t care for an infield upgrade as Carpenter should stick to 1B.

    #75114
    PadsFS
    Participant

    That’s how the last couple of years have gone.
    Cards sign 2-2.5 WAR Fowler for 5 years and $80M.
    Brewers sign 4-5 WAR Lorenzo Cain one year later for the exact same contract.
    Cards trade for 2-3 WAR Marcel Ozuna.
    Brewers get 4-5 WAR Christian Yelich.

    The Brewers got pretty lucky on both of those players. I do like that they went ahead and pushed the envelope by adding guys on top of a position (OF) that already looked good to begin with Broxton, Brinson, Braun, Santana, Phillips, and Cain.

    #75115
    Onyxgem
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    IF trout hits the Fa market i am betting he ends up in Philly, he is a Philly boy and loves that town.

    #75118
    jj-cf-stl
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    MLBTR had Donaldson at 1/20mil

    He topped my offseason wish list at that price.
    Strike one.

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