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I think paying Donaldson $135M would be paying him for past performance. At best, the Cardinals might over him $50M over three years, especially with the injury issues that have been hitting him lately.
Somebody (Machado’s agent?) has been floating the idea of $400M for him. I don’t believe the Cardinals will offer him much more than what they offered to Jason Heyward which was around $200M over eight years. The good news is that the big spenders are either close to the luxury tax threshold, or not in need a shortstop. So there’s still a slim chance that the Cardinals could be in the running for Machado.
Almost all free agents are paid based on past performance. Unfortunately, the Cards have tried to pay them based on future value and that has rarely paid off in the form of them actually signing said free agents.
If Donaldson is a 6 WAR talent (and he still may be) and puts up 15ish in the first three years of a deal, he would be worth all that contract by then. It is a possibility…as is the chance that he tails off quickly. Such is the risk.
Personally I’d rather have Machado, of course…but I just can’t see this front office going $300+ million for one guy.
Most of the big spenders sat out this year’s FA market so they can reset and be ready for next year. I would anticipate the Yankees and Dodgers to open up the checkbook wide next offseason, not to mention the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Nats, Phillies, and other usual suspects. The Cardinals usually don’t win bidding wars so I’m not optimistic we will land one of the big prizes.
My 7 favorites to sign former mvp Josh Donaldson as a free agent (with odds). https://t.co/zgo2l6obGz
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) April 27, 2018
Seems like the time to revive this thread.
Per Goold:
The team and chairman Bill DeWitt Jr., according to one industry source, are “sending signals they are out to be a player.” The Cardinals intend to explore Harper’s market and see how they fit, sources confirmed. They have long eyed free agent Josh Donaldson as a possible answer at third base.
How much money and how many years? As a reminder, because he was traded in-season, the team that signs Donaldson will not lose a draft pick.
Josh Donaldson is a gamer and he plays hard; is very intelligent and hates to lose. I’d sign him with an incentive laden contract. If he performs, he gets paid. It’s that simple.
Its hard to imagine the Cardinals putting up with Boras long enough to sign Harper. So, they will have to sign Donaldson. The worry is that if he can’t play much because of injuries, it will be coming on top of the gigantic failures of signing Leake, Cecil, Fowler, Gregerson, and Holland, and MM.
I just had a thought. Arenado is a free agent next year and would be great to have. Carpenter is also a free agent. Signing Donaldson this year could help to keep many options open. We could still be in the market for Arenado next year and move Donaldson to 1B. Or, have an opt out clause in Donaldson’s contract after a year and still have Carpenter for 1B.
Don’t want anything to do with him, constantly injured last few years and production has fallen off cliff, no thanks!
Donaldson is an interesting case. He actually reminds me a lot of Carlos Beltran before he came to St Louis. He had generally been a reliable performer and healthy in his career before a couple of injury shortened seasons. The only difference from Donaldson is that Beltran had a bounce back 2011 before he signed with St Louis.
I think there’s a very good chance that Josh becomes a .900 OPS guy again next year, wherever he lands. We probably can’t expect him to be an elite defender again, but average defense and power will do. I’d be willing to go to $30M on a one year deal. Jedd backs up 2nd and 1st next year, Yairo backs up 3rd and SS.
If Josh wants more than a year, add them at lower prices and throw in opt outs. Win-win.
“If Josh wants more than a year,” he should be able to get it from any number of other teams. He will be in enough demand that holding to a “team-friendly” contract offer may leave the Cards with nothing.
I like the sound of the Beltran comparison. I am going to look into that further. I do know he signed for two years on a market-competitive contract.
“If Josh wants more than a year,” he should be able to get it from any number of other teams. He will be in enough demand that holding to a “team-friendly” contract offer may leave the Cards with nothing.
Agree. And for the record, I’m not sure something like 2 years and $55 million with an opt out after the first year is team-friendly.
I think fans are so scared of another Fowler that they’re averse to signing anyone who isn’t a sure thing. I’ve seen all the arguments against signing a top notch reliever; against signing Harper or Machado; certainly against Donaldson. What fans are ignoring, IMO, is that this team is in need of a talent bump, plain and simple. It may make better business sense to go with Jedd Gyorko than Josh Donaldson at 3rd, or Martinez and Fowler over Harper in RF…but that gets you 85-88 wins again. Josh or Bryce may not be a wild success as a signing (free agents very rarely are) but they give you a ceiling that is much higher.
This team needs 92-95 win talent, and while some of it is there they need to take a chance to realize the rest of the bump. Go get em, Mo.
Fans are primarily scared of big contracts because of a fear that the money allocated will constrain the team from future moves. Yes, the Cards are stuck with $52 million owed Fowler. Bad deal, but they can afford it. Obviously, they must be careful, but this team has the financial power to do whatever they choose.
Secondary is the concern that a roster spot will later be tied up by an underperforming player. They did find a way to get rid of Leake, so there might still be hope.
Jim Bowden predicts Donaldson will get three years, $54 million. He sees best fit with Cardinals or Angels.
Subscriber article:
https://theathletic.com/630722/2018/11/05/bowden-what-the-top-35-mlb-free-agents-are-worth-and-which-teams-they-fit-best/I would go with 2 years $35M with incentives if he stays on the field.
We then could trade Jedd and have money left over for other moves.
Remind me again what makes Donaldson worth all these millions y’all are projecting for his signing.
Career .874 OPS. Even in his “down” 2017 and 18 seasons he put up 148 and 119 OPS+ numbers. He has been a good to very good fielder through his career and the power is there. Coming off his injury year his value will probably be diminished, which could make him a 1-2 year stopgap at a reasonable salary to get to Montero or Gorman being close to ready in 2020 or 2021.
If he goes for $18 million a year and the Cards don’t match that, I will be very disappointed unless they get a superstar.
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