Free agent Steven Matz

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  • #177398
    Nigel T
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    Paid - Three Months

    If a number one costs 25-40 million per year, then this deal looks quite reasonable for a back end starter.
    Most of the top end rotation guys come with question marks. and most don’t possess stuff superior to Reyes. Hicks, or Flaherty. I will take our question marked hurler over someone else’s at the going price for number one starters.
    Didn’t Max start out in relief for the D-Backs?

    #177402
    GameCard
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    Free

    He is not a back-end starter…he is a #3 in the rotation as a LH.

    #177406
    mspaid
    Participant

    Free

    Rats:

    What I want them to do and what they will do are certainly two different things.
    1. They need to sign a SS either Story, Seager or someone of that ilk…a good one.
    2. Sign Schwarber for DH
    #. Sign Pederson to platoon with Bader

    But Matz will likely be their last acquisition. They always stop after one deal and that person is supposed to lead them to the promised land. Hint: It never works.

    It could take 180 million to win the WS and that is not going to happen. So we’ll have to be satisfied with losing the Wild Card game and listen to Mo say what a great year it was.

    #177408
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    mspaid spitballed:

    It could take 180 million to win the WS and that is not going to happen.

    Funny, Nate. Bet you didn’t know the Braves just won the World Series with a payroll of $153 MM – $18 MM less than the 2021 Cardinals – and ranked #11 in MLB!

    As I and many others have used real data to point out often over the years, it isn’t how much is spent, but how it is spent.

    #177409
    stlcard25
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    I like the Cards’ payroll position going forward. Nate isn’t wrong that they could spend some more this year, but I don’t think it’s absolutely necessary to compete in the NL Central. The question is…will competing in the NL Central be enough to put the team on better footing against a (likely not quite so good) Dodgers team, an up and coming Padres squad, the smoke and mirror Giants, or the team that comes out of the NL East race? If I had to handicap it, I’d say the Cards are probably the 3rd or 4th best team in the NL right now, with average health. Adding another starter could push them another notch higher.

    #177411
    1982 willie
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    The braves had a lot of fortunate things go their way plus made a couple moves that worked out for them.

    #177413
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    This time last offseason ATL was signing Drew Smyly to a 1yr 11mil contract.

    He logged 23 GS and 126.2 IP. Every club needs their innings eaters.

    #177414
    Onyxgem
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    Free

    meh it is what it is, but the cards didn’t need another mid rotation starter they needed a top of the line starter but they settled because it as cheaper and we all know how they love being CHEAP as can be!

    #177418
    bccran
    Participant

    Any poster who calls the Cardinals cheap doesn’t know or care about the facts.

    #177419
    Card4Ever
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    Free

    Hope it works out. Not a huge fan though. He is a #4 starter, which means the present 4/5 drop down a notch. It does nothing for 1-3, which is what they really need. When Waino retires, he moves up to #3, which he isn’t on a playoff team. I hope Mo has some further moves up his sleeve.

    #177420
    mspaid
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    Free

    Brian:

    You can’t compare team to team on payroll. The Rays made it to the WS with a pauper’s payroll. What I meant was the place where the Cardinals are will take a very large commitment to be a legitimate WS contender. Right now they are second tier contender. The Matz deal was a good one but they can’t stop there. If it is their big move for the off-season then 2022 is already over but there is plenty of time for some more “significant” moves. I’ll be waiting and watching. Gould mentioned a possible payroll increase. Now, if it’s a mere ten million then I’m yawning but if it is thirty to forty then I’m on the edge of my seat. It’s fun to anticipate and hope. Fingers crossed.

    #177421
    Onyxgem
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    Bccran you know all about not caring about facts

    #177422
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Thanks for clarifying Nate, but I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you are hoping for ownership to change its long established pattern of behavior.

    #177425
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I am a fan of the Matz signing. A good fit for our rotation. A 30 year old ground ball lefty who doesn’t walk a bunch and keeps it in the park. He should do well playing with this team in our park.

    Matz (L) bb/9 2.6 hr/9 1.1
    Wainwright bb/9 2.2 hr/9 0.9
    Flaherty bb/9 3.0 hr/9 1.4
    Hudson (2019) bb/9 4.4 hr/9 1.1
    Mikolas bb/9 2.2 hr/9 1.2

    I think Mo will configure the 2022 pen with the same type of guys, moving away from the radar gun types who can’t be counted on to throw strikes. He was quick to sign McFarland, bb/9 2.1 hr/9 0.7. Reyes had a bb/9 of 6.5 last year and both he and Hicks have always walked too many. I think Mo is moving away from those kind of guys.

    #177427
    blingboy
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    I think Mo is done other than keeping his eyes open for a pen guy and depth pieces for the upper levels. A more playable reserve catcher if something comes along.

    #177430
    stlcard25
    Participant

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    On the type of pitcher, it does seem that Mo is being reactive after the poor results early in 2021. Whether that’s the best call or not, we will see. The Cards certainly have been more on the end of shopping for need vs opportunity since Luhnow left.

    #177431
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Luhnow led amateur scouting and the draft plus the farm system. Huge, huge responsibilities, but on the scouting and player development side. Basically Randy Flores plus Gary LaRocque today.

    Luhnow also started the analytics work for the organization, but I never got the impression he was central to MLB acquisitions.

    #177432
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    I really like the Matz acquisition and not just for rotation depth. He has a chance to become a mainstay if he can hold his own.

    #177433
    stlcard25
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    You are probably right, Brian. But somewhere along the line the Cards went from cutting edge to very boring when it came to the way they approached the market. Maybe it was just bad luck, I don’t know. I didn’t follow the off-season as closely back in the day, but it seemed like they made better moves in the 2008-14 era than since. Maybe it’s just bad luck. They still do well overseas. The farm is not as strong, so maybe they have needed to shop for need vs opportunity lately.

    #177436
    blingboy
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    Another thing we should keep in mind is that the traditional way starters and pen guys are used is evolving. The player development side and Mo might be trying to move accordingly. Assuming a somewhat normal 2022 season, we will have to see how Marmol and the reconfigured coaching staff manages the pitching. Maybe Schildt wasn’t on board enough with that.

    #177438
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    I like this signing. Matz pitching in our park half the time (unless they move the fences in), and with our defense should be a good value. Also takes the pressure off of Liberatore, who can get more time in AAA if he does not light up the coaches eyes in the Spring.

    I am not a fan of bringing in Schwarber or Story/Seager, and definitely not Perderson. I think you give those ABs to Gorman, Yepez, Nooty, and Sosa and perhaps a dark horse candidate and see where it goes. Quite a lot of potential upside there.

    I will qualify that by saying Schwarber on a one or two year deal to fill in as DH would be okay. Just don’t get into anything long term with a lot of dollars committed.

    Not too concerned on a number that the salary budget has to be – but rather be wise as to your obligations today and over the next 3 to 5 years. There is already quite a lot going to guys who will see declining production, so adding to that burden will add risk to the club’s ability to maneuver the roster in the coming years.

    #177440
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I guess the Mets answer to us signing Matz is them signing Plummer.

    #177444
    gscottar
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    I guess we have a rotation full of mediocre pitchers, two of whom will make significantly more than Matz will next year.

    Well in some respects I think that is true. We really don’t have a true ace depending on your definition of ace. Most of our starters are really middle of the rotation guys but cumulatively they are solid. When I think of an ace I think of someone like DeGrom, Scherzer, Buehler, etc… There aren’t many of those around though.

    Look I am not trying to be a negative nellie. I hope Matz proves me wrong and give us 4 years of at least 2 WAR per year, but yes I am skeptical. I would probably be less critical about it if it were a 2 or even 3 year deal but 4 years seems excessive for a pitcher like him. I would have rather gone with the higher AAV than giving out the 4th year.

    I know that $11M per season shouldn’t totally cripple our budget if he doesn’t work out but I also know that we can’t afford too many busts within our budget. We need our contracts to work out. As many have pointed out to me we can’t just paper over mistakes like the Dodgers and Yankees can.

    The Cardinals just don’t have a good history with free agents. We are due for some good luck. Here is to hoping the worm has turned.

    #177449
    Mrperkins
    Participant

    Free

    I’m not a fan of give a guy more for shorter deal. If you don’t think he is going to be in the league in 4 years, don’t sign him. Or take out insurance. Matz has put up 30 starts in 3 of last 4 years, with the covid year the exception. Had a strong 2nd half last year and played the whole year in AL East with DH. I see 15 wins a year from him each year.

    #177451
    gscottar
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    Paid - Annual

    15 wins a year for the next 4 years? Wow, that is quite a prediction. Mo might get a statue outside Busch Stadium if that happens.

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