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Bling, it’s believed he can play a solid CF at least early in his career. He is #8 on my personal list just due to projection but I’ve never personally seen him play.
You convinced me about Drew Rom and I moved it further down. Furthermore, it is useless to insist on choosing him for the next 10 rounds.
So my #6 is G.Graceffo
Thanks for the info on Davis. On my personal list I have MGreevy, Graceffo, Davis, Hjerpe.
Some part of making it in MLB is getting your chance, so I give a bit extra to guys like MdGreevy and Graceffo who seem likely to get to STL in 2024 once attrition sets in. If a guy is a ways off, you never know what might happen before he gets to the show, so proximity is a leg up.
Making it also depends on staying healthy. McGreevy has done that the last couple years. Graceffo has the one IL stint this past May, but otherwise a couple good years health wise. Avoiding those setbacks gives a guy a leg up also.
I get why Herrera and Luken Baker are deemed not eligible for this ranking, but it doesn’t seem right for these two. I’d rather see the cutoff be at a certain age instead of service time.
Hjerpe at #8
There are probably going to be at least four pitchers in the top 10 of this ranking who should be rotation 1’s or 2’s. Based on watching short videos of Hjerpe pitching and listening to Brian’s interview with him, I think Hjerpe will be the first to reach the majors.
With only 99 major league plate appearances, I don’t understand why Baker is deemed ineligible. But since he is, I’ll go for Graceffo at #6.
I’m going to throw out some stats on the Top 13 pitchers:
AAA:
Adam Kloffenstein: Age: 23 | ERA: 3.16 | WHIP: 1.27 | K/9: 9.84 | BB/9: 3.87 | K/BB: 2.55
Michael McGreevy: Age: 23 | ERA: 4.12 | WHIP: 1.41 | K/9: 7.24 | BB/9: 2.24 | K/BB: 3.24
Sem Robberse: Age: 22 | ERA: 4.28 | WHIP: 1.35 | K/9: 9.44 | BB/9: 4.14 | K/BB: 2.28
Drew Rom: Age: 23 | ERA: 4.82 | WHIP: 1.57 | K/9: 10.95 | BB/9: 4.64 | K/BB: 2.36
Gordon Graceffo: Age: 23 | ERA: 4.92 | WHIP: 1.53 | K/9: 8.48 | BB/9: 4.71 | K/BB: 1.80AA:
Tink Hence: Age: 21 | ERA: 4.31 | WHIP: 1.33 | K/9: 9.28 | BB/9: 3.19 | K/BB: 2.91
Tekoah Roby: Age: 22 | ERA: 4.63 | WHIP: 1.20 | K/9: 10.69 | BB/9: 2.32 | K/BB: 4.60A+:
Ian Bedell: Age: 24 | ERA: 2.44 | WHIP: 1.15 | K/9: 9.94 | BB/9: 3.19 | K/BB: 3.12
Max Rajcic: Age: 22 | ERA: 2.48 | WHIP: 1.01 | K/9: 8.99 | BB/9: 1.97 | K/BB: 4.56
Cooper Hjerpe: Age: 22 | ERA: 3.51 | WHIP: 1.24 | K/9: 11.20 | BB/9: 5.49 | K/BB: 2.04A:
Zack Showalter: Age: 19 | ERA: 2.30 | WHIP: 1.31 | K/9: 12.15 | BB/9: 4.34 | K/BB: 2.80
Pete Hansen: Age: 23 | ERA: 3.09 | WHIP: 1.15 | K/9: 10.02 | BB/9: 3.10 | K/BB: 3.23
Brycen Mautz: Age: 22 | ERA: 3.98 | WHIP: 1.34 | K/9: 9.95 | BB/9: 3.89 | K/BB: 2.56I can go back and forth on Graceffo, MCGreevy or Hjerpe. I think Graceffo gives us the best shot to get a front of the rotation starter from him, as he’s got the high octane fastball and has shown he can be dominant when given the chance. I think McGreevy is the best chance to give us a big league starter, as his command reminds one of a poor man’s Shane Bieber. Hjerpe is something of a synthesis of the two, with control not as good as McGreevy and stuff not as overpowering (potentially) as Graceffo, but could end up being the best of the three.
Forced to choose…I’ll go with Hjerpe as #6, as he’s the youngest and I think given a full year he can get his footing in 2024.
I think you have to look a bit beyond the 2023 stats when making the call as to who’s the best prospect. I can see how one would value Robberse, Kloffenstein, Rajcic or Showalter ahead of the firm of Graceffo, McGreevy and Hjerpe, but given their full minors results I’d have to lean Hjerpe and Graceffo first, then maybe Robberse and Kloffenstein, with McGreevy in the mix too. I think Rajcic and Showalter are a bit too far away yet to project them that highly.
Once guys hit AAA they are facing high level competition day after day, some of the factory finish rubs off. You have to factor that in when lining them up with guys who haven’t gotten there yet and stll have the low/mid level new car smell.
Thanks for posting those stats! LACardFan has a very admirable pertinacity about him. I’ve been swayed in the direction of one, Maxwel Scott Rajcic, for our top prospect #6. Thank you very much.
bccran asked:
With only 99 major league plate appearances, I don’t understand why Baker is deemed ineligible.
Please refer to the third post on page 1 of this thread for the answer on the eligibility of a number of players, including Baker.
mud said:
I get why Herrera and Luken Baker are deemed not eligible for this ranking, but it doesn’t seem right for these two. I’d rather see the cutoff be at a certain age instead of service time.
Of course, this community can set any rules you want for your list. But if you want to be able to compare apples to apples with others who rank prospects, you are better off using the same criteria as everyone else.
Rookie eligibility ends when a player goes over 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days of service time. That is usually used for prospect qualification, too. The idea of using age as a hard rule is a new one to me.
There have to be rules, but sometimes applying them produces an absrd result. Like Baker and Herrera, two players still trying to make it, are not eligible as prospects, while Winn, who has made it, still is eligible. There really isn’t any point including Winn in a list of prospects, but there is reason for Baker and Herrera.
130 at bats or 50 innings pitched is fine. But service time doesn’t necessarily relate to playing time.
I love the pitchers and I especially love that Rajic and Bedell are coming on strong in A ball but I’ll take Chase Davis at #6. I think he’ll be a bit more contact oriented and let the power come naturally once he gets to A+. The Cardinals don’t have a ton of success with this profile, which gives me pause, but they wanted him out of HS and went back and got him the next time he was available. There is something they like and I think it starts to show this year in Peoria.
I have tried tô stay out of the eligibility argument since my days of being the leãd moderador of the prodpect ranking thread. But I will at least provide some historical context
At the time of starting the comunnity ranking there was only one popular ranking system. That was Baseball América. There was no mlb pipeline rankings. No fangrahs ranking. Not even the Post Dispatch. We were cutting edge! BA at the time used the 130 abs/50 IP standard and ignored service time (I dont know what they currently do). The community had discussion among itself every year over which standard tô use but evry year ignoring service time won out. Tô me that makes sense and would be my choice. Why does it make sense goes tô the meaning of prospect. A player who sits on the bench all year is still a prospect because there is noo evidence of his ability tô perform. We are voting on a players potential impact. Whether a player is still a prospect (unproven) really hás nothing tô do with rookie eligibility. (I will be the first tô admit that 130/50 is also not sufficient tô know a player’s potential but you have tô draw a line somewhere. Where ignoring service time becomes most controversy is with relief pitchers. It is possible for a reliever that gets injured tô have as many as 2.5 tô 3 years of mlb service time but not have 50 IP
Só that is some historical context mixed with some personal commentary.
Ok. I think the final tally is 6 Hjerpe/4 Graceffo/3 Bernal/2 McGreevey/1 Rajcic/ 1 Davis
1. Winn
2. Saggese
3. Hence
4. Roby
5. Scott
6. HjerpeI’m going with Graceffo next. He is actually #7 on my own list. Therefore, our list is so far tracking pretty well with my personal list. I like Graceffo for all the previous reasons mentioned above. I could have put 2-8 in just about any order. I’m hoping Graceffo is healthy and can make another big leap forward.
# 7 Gordon Graceffo
I agree that applying service time rules can be weird but I’d prefer to stay consistent with other boards. And, I would have ranked Herrera already had he been eligible. Luken probably belongs somewhere in the teens. Feel free to call out when you would have added those guys if they were eligible if you want to. We can then have Brian save this string of comments to the top of the forum like he did last year and we can always go back and reference it.
I’ll stick with Chase Davis at #7. Still all projection as CariocaCardinal alluded to earlier, and I think the Cards track record with the power OF type is not great, but there are a few reasons for optimism. #1 a 25% Walk Rate and a .366 OBP. 34 SO in 104 ABs (law of small numbers for both stats applies obviously) won’t work anywhere, but it sounds like a guy selling out for power instead of letting it play naturally. Hasn’t been a successful strategy in the FSL historically. I could be wrong as there isn’t a lot of opportunity to watch FSL games online. I think we’ll have a better idea this year in Peoria, but until then I like him solidly in the top 10 based on power/athleticism combo.
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