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Mo’s stated that he’s not going for a short term solution. Wants players that will contribute in the future. The main thing may be to get rid of duplication. Don’t need to have Fowler, Pham, and Bader. All are starters, and O’Neill and Mercado are knocking at the door. Wong, Munoz, G. Garcia, and perhaps Schrock may also be another area. Martinez, Wacha, and Mikolas still a third.
Mo was quoted in saying the cardinals wouldn’t tear apart the rotation when asked about Martinez availability. I think that’s the wrong move. I would like to see this roster turned over quite a bit. Something along the lines of:
-C. Martinez, Gyorko, Brebbia to ATL for Austin Riley and 4-5 more prospects.
ATL is looking for a SP, Gyorko gives them another option at 3B and versatility, Brebbia gives them more depth in the pen and comes with options so they can send him down if needed.
– J. Martinez and Norris to BOS for 3-4 prospects. BOS is looking for a reliever. Bradley Jr. has been terrible offensively. Benintendi could shift to CF and Jose or JD could play LF and DH with Bradley Jr. being a defensive replacement.
– Pham and Bowman to CLEV. Clev is looking for OF help and it would be selling low on Pham but I’d take lower level guys in return to try to get better talent. Clev pen has been terrible and Bowman would give more depth and comes with options to send him down too.
– Kelly and Wong to LAA. This is just a guess on a match. Kinsler has been bad and a FA after the year. Wong gives them an option moving forward and gives Kelly a chance to play. LAA system isn’t strong, but if they could get 3-5 prospects, even low level, it could work.
– Voit for something. I don’t expect much of anything in return, but hes not going to play in STL. Get something and give him a chance. KC might make sense and give him opportunity at 1B and DH.
– release Holland. Just give up, move on, and look at future options.Carpenter 1B, Bader CF, Ozuna LF, Dejong SS, Molina C, O’Neill RF, Munoz 3B, Garcia 2B
Mejia/Tovar/Schrock – IF, Wisdom 3B/1B, Fowler OF, Mercado OF, Pena C
Mikolas, Flaherty, Wacha, Weaver, Gant/ Hudson
Poncedeleon/Gant, Cecil, Tuivailala, Mayers, Lyons, Gregerson, Hicks
Still have Gomber, Helsley (inj?), Webb, Ellis, Greene for some depth– Fowler and Cecil need to go but nobody is taking those contracts. This MLB team is a step back. But not that much and let’s them look at future options and add more to the system to keep building.
Cards667, I like a few of the possible deals. A couple of others I am not so sure about.
Atl – if it is Riley and Allard, I am on board.
Bos – I don’t really care for any of their prospects unless someone knows something I don’t.
Clev – I would look to pick up an impact minor leaguer. May have to give up a low level prospect to get to their higher rated prospects.
LAA – look to get Matt Thaiss or Andrelton Simmons. Since you can’t get Trout, those are the only 2 I would be interested in.As far as Holland goes, we may need to keep him just for the body and the hope he could turn things around. If it is a lost season, anyway, he would not really be blocking anyone. If he continues doing really bad, then release him.
Fowler has been a wreck
but Cecil really hasnt been when you look at his stats…it’s not worth his paycheck but it inst terrible..had a poor game today, but his last moth has been pretty solid
Cecil’s numbers lie. He was terrible last season with allowing so many inherited runners to score and with giving up the lead time and time again. He has not been much better this year. I dislike him almost as much as I disliked Leake.
For grins, I went back and looked at Cecil’s numbers last year and how they stack up against the other relievers.
Inherited runners scored = 40.6%.
Worse: Oh, Brebbia
Better: Lyons, Bowman
Too few to be significant: Rosenthal, Sherriff, TuivailalaLosses + blown saves (surrogate for leads given up) = 10
Worse: none
Same: Oh (10), Bowman (9)
Better: Rosenthal, Lyons, Tui, Sherriff, BrebbiaThis season (coming into today)
Inherited runners scored = 30%.
Worse: Tui
Same: Hicks
Better: Lyons, Mayers, Norris, Bowman, Gregerson
Too few to matter: Holland, GantLosses + blown saves (surrogate for leads given up) = 1
Worse: Hicks (5), Bowman, Holland, Norris (4), Tui, Brebbia (3), Lyons (2)
Same: none
Better: Gregerson, Mayers (0)Of course, the more dependable pitchers will receive more high leverage opportunities. Can’t give up a lead in garbage time.
Still I thought it was interesting. The relievers overall seem to be doing a better job with inherited runners this year compared to last – including Cecil.
(I am also reminded why Oh was not retained. They had no easy choice with Cecil, though.)
I think the reason Cecil’s ‘inherited runners’ are down this year is because Matheny used him a lot less when there were runners in scoring position, and I think the reason his ‘blown saves’ are down is because he was used less when the game was close. Take today, for example, Cecil came into the game and promptly gave up three runs. In most games giving up three runs means a blown save. That’s the kind of thing that makes me say his numbers lie. I appreciate the numbers and I admire those who work with them and share what they find out. But sometimes the numbers lie and you have to rely on what your eyes tell you.
My eyes tell me Cecil has struggled, too. But I don’t have that detailed of a memory to recall every game or draw a definitive comparison between the seasons. So I use the data.
Last year, he inherited 32 runners in 73 games pitched (.44 runners per appearance). 13 of them scored (40.6%).
This year, he inherited 20 runners in 25 games pitched (.80 runners per appearance). 6 of them scored (30.0%).These are facts.
Cecil is pitching in fewer games this year, but when he does come in, he is doing it with more runners on base on the average but a lower percentage of them end up scoring.
Cecil’s ERA this season (3.52) is lower than last (3.88), but his FIP is up.
The part about his performance this year that bothers me the most has not even been discussed here. His walks are way up and strikeouts way down.
BB rate 2017/18: 2.1 to 5.9 per nine
K rates: 8.8 to 4.7 per nineThose changes are huge and not a good combination.
P.S. FWIW, I don’t think the numbers ever lie. I do believe they can be taken out of context and misinterpreted, though.
Cecil has at least been used in much lower leverage spots this year. That I think has helped with the perception as he hurt the team a lot in 2017.
Since Lyons has fallen off the face of the earth this season and Gomber has had the usual rookie struggles and combine that with Cecil`s inconsistent pitching when do the Cards make a move concerning a LH bullpen guy? I know Layne at Memphis has done well there and Tyler Webb is at Memphis also…so I wonder will one of them get a shot (Webb is on th 40-man I think,Layne is not) or will FO/MO ddeal for a lefty soon?Best guesses people… I know the FO said that they will be looking for long-term help not just a rental so?
I don’t have a detailed memory either. But I do remember being painfully disappointed time and time again in 2017. And that was after we locked into him for 4 years and big money. It almost makes me sick to think about it.
Not all innings are created equal. Cecil rarely gets into a high leverage situation because neither the former or current manager would trust him in that spot. It is easier to rack up “fair” numbers in mop up situations.
The last post by “Cardinals2016” in this thread and watching the last several games leads me to believe the Cardinals should be sellers and evaluators. I know Dewitt and Mo have said this is a “playoff-capable roster”. However, I see too many bullpen issues and defensive lapses that need to be corrected by trades or free agency in a very short time frame … Not sure this is possible.
In my opinion, the club needs to use the remainder of the season to shed resources they know they do not want to move forward with and evaluate those that remain. I would hate to see the club go for it, fall short and be in worse shape at the end of the season then they are now. All efforts should be focused on getting the organization to position to win the Division title in 2019.
I agree this is a playoff capable roster. But it ain’t happening.
My desire for the focus for the last 2 months is 1) getting maximum value for tradeable assets (Norris) and 2) figuring out whether we can realistically retool for next year or need to tear down and look at 2020-21.
Right now my vote would be a total rebuild. Make available and trade Gyrko, Ozuna, Wong, Wacha or Mikolas (trade whichever gives you the better return) if you can get value for them. Try to dump Fowler without eating more than $10 million a year on his contract. CMartinez, JMartinez, Pham and Carpenter would not be off limits for the right price.
I do not think the below team is really much different in projected wins than our current team.
C Yadi
1B Carpenter
2B Shrock/Garcia
SS DeJong
3B Munoz
LF O’Neill
CF Pham
RF Bader
Bench Garcia/Martinez/Pena/Lhh OfSP Martinez
SP Flaherty
SP Weaver
SP Wacha or Mikolas
SP Reyes/Gant/Gomber/Hudson/
RP Hicks
RP Gregerson
RP Tui
RP Leone
RP Mayers/Brebbia
RP Heisly/Poncedeleon
LH Cecil
LH ???That team has about a $90 million dollar payroll plus about $13 million in dead money (Fowler/Leake)
If you were to consider the returns we could get in trade this team could easily be as competitive as this years team. Add in another $60 million in payroll flexability and we could make ourselves division favorites with the right acquisitions.
The only trades I would make nearing the deadline is either JMartinez or Norris. Obviously Fowler is a possibility as well, although it would depend on how much salary you commit to.
Everyone else is at a low point in value, and thus you would be dealing guys who are likely to perform better over the next couple of years. Hang on to them, and see how the remainder of the season goes. Chances are some of these guys will increase in market value, and then you may want to make some significant off-season deals.
Specific to Ozuna, I think he will put up some big numbers next year. Depending on where the club stands, he might be someone you move in a Machado-like deal near the July deadline of 2019, and O’Neill then takes over full time in left.
CC…. your thoughts have a lot of merit although if the team decides to go with that many youngsters the aim for the division may need to be 2020. That would be fine with me but I know there are many Cards-only fans that want to make Oct. every season.
You mention 9 starting pitchers, 8 with MLB experience…. decisions will need to be made. The FO may believe that Flaherty could take over the ace spot in two years, Weaver might not survive the competition and CMartinez may be traded if the right deal can be made. At least half of the bullpen will be gone in two years. Hopefully we’ll find some help by converting the excess of potential starters.
By 2020 one of our two catching prospects will be groomed to replace Molina, which will strengthen the bench. I don’t thick GGarcia will be able to hold off the rising competition (Schrock/Urias/Sosa). Pham might be feeling his age leaving another spot open in the OF (Mercado-Arozarena-Thomas).
This can all be done without going out to land a big contract, but I’m pretty confident that there will be at least one. I don’t think the idea will sit well with the St Louis partisans, but may be what management should be shooting for, taking into account the CHC and MIL success status right now.
I don’t think that there will be many “experts” picking the Cards for the division title next season. 2020 may be more realistic, but don’t tell the Card fanatics.
Whether someone is at a low point in value, it really does not matter.
The team will be better by getting rid of Fowler, period. Wong has been at a low value for the last 3-4 years…Whether it’s Schrock or Urias, we should have someone capable of putting up Wong-like numbers next year…
I only see one team possibly interested in JMart at the deadline – Houston.
Whether the Cards could compete with the lineup I posted would depend on whether they could wisely spend the $60 million in payroll flexibility it would generate. If you are going to target 2020 I think you have to consider moving Carpenter has well. He becomes a 5/10 guy during the season next year so it may be trade him this off season or never.
I definitely trade Ozuna if I can get any value for him. Right now, he is almost a non-tender candidate. Would you pay $13-$15 million next year for his production (offensively and defensively)? The best I would hope for is a turn around and a draft pick in return. I am not signing his up and down production long term.
Wacha and Mikolas are in their walk years. Probably get far greater value for them in the off season than a mid season trade.
Why trade Ozuna? He is still just 27 and you have to hope for a rebound season next year.Ozuna has been disappointing but he hasn`t been the black hole Fowler has been offensively and defensively.Fowler is sunk cost right now unless he rebounds at least to just Mendoza like.You want to trade someone then you trade the 30 year old malcontent with eye/injury issues (Pham).Mickolas has been a lifesaver and Wacha is a enigma.So the FO has to decide which direction to go.It seems like Jose Martinez and ZGyorko could be headed elsewhere by the deadline.
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