Buyers or sellers?

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  • #56931
    AvatarBw52
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    It would be foolish to NOT at least try and deal a veteran from a position of strength (OF,1B) to upgrade with at least a prospect with a eye towards looking ahead.For example Tommy Pham 30 years old getting a reality dose over his massive overplaying last season and his continuing eye issues should be viable trade bait.Cards have Bader,O`Neill,Mercado,Arozarena all who can play in STLOUIS this season .Matt Carpenter 32 years old …..some AL team would be willing to give up a prospect or a young player for him IMHO.Some team contending could see MCarps bat as a viable asset.Cards can plug in granite glove Jose Martinez and use Voit as late inning defense replacement.Voit is usually solid at 1B.Maybe Cecil might bring something as a LH bullpen arm….
    I would even consider dealing Gyorko if the right offer was available.Fowler is simply untradeable and Wong is a lost cause so far.

    #56941
    thejagerthejager
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    I think a retoll is coming…some parts ant move, but some parts could

    -Wong you an sell low on and his contract is still attractive if you like him, plsu we may even eat a little for the right guy to come back (ala Wong for Herrera from KC)
    -Gyorko is team friendly and his versatility as starter or impact bench player and power is very valuable for playoff pushing teams
    -Wacha’s cheapness for this year and next is very valuable not to mention he is on fire and coudl be an impact for the stretch

    those 3 pieces still coudl provide good returns IMO..and are all replaceable long term and even short term…

    I think you wash your hands of Holland and maybe Cecil at this point…it didnt work out but you cant endanger the games with players who have no futures on the team and arent performing well

    Greger and Leone are bonuses if they can make it back and be effective this year..but you dont throw away their potential help long term

    Pham and JMArt both woudl be valuable pieces but their age would still be a detriment to what came back, i dont see how what we coudl get back for them woudl out balance what they offer to us in financial help and on field performance…they stay unless we get a crazy offer

    A superstar 3b SS or 1b OR a up and coming hopeful to be a superstar at those positions is what we really need

    Using Wacha Gyorko and Wong to get a fix in the pen and the corner IF would be great, mwe also have enough depth at OF and C to maybe snag someone too…

    could we get Betances for Wacha? Or Andujar? Or get Gyorko in the mix for both?

    Herrera for Wong and AdGarcia
    Betances for Wacha (or BEtances and Andujar for Wacha and Gyorko and another good prospect)
    Beltre for Kelly (not if you can pry Andujar from NYY)

    #56945
    AvatarSoonerinNC
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    What I said was that we are likely in a third year of downtrend. While I would never be as stupid to advocate abandoning a 90 win season, if we continue our current trend we will not be near a 90 win trend by August 1.

    We have lived so far on our strong starting pitching. And good pitching is the reason we could continue to trend to 90 wins. But it seems that our starters are beginning to regress lately. Our bullpen has been shaky at best and likely to be moreso as some of the vets (Holland, Gregerson and Lyons) come back. We have too many corner infielders, defensive problems and poor baserunning even with Oquendo back as third base coach. We seem to generally be weak on fundamentals. The negative issues are not going to get better without some moves. And probably better through addition by subtraction.

    It is hard for me to see this as a 90 win team if I ever did. I sincerely hope I am wrong.

    #56947
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’ve seen a lot on here of folks downplaying the injury issue so far and while some guys have struggled, it cannot be denied that key guys going down have significantly impacted the season. Carlos missed a month and with how he’s pitched since coming back, he’s effectively missed more than that. Know a lot of teams that surge forward when they lose their ace? How would Chicago do if Lester was out? Yadi was out for a long stretch. People pooh pooh the Dejong injury but he was playing really well. If he had continued his season pace (which he was accelerating on from his early strikeout issues before the injury) he would be between Carlos Correa and Manny Machado in fWAR for SS. Think that losing either of those guys would hurt those teams’ win totals? Alex Reyes going down again hurt, probably more than we realize.

    I guess my point is that I could still see 90 wins with a healthy roster and some shrewd moves. Certainly I don’t think 4th place is likely with the Pirates still punching way above their weight. I’m still not convinced that Milwaukee won’t fade once their bullpen wears down and their starting pitching hits its true talent level.

    #56948
    Avatar858booyah
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    Question is will they be on pace for 89 wins after these next couple of weeks. Right now that’s highly suspect. I’m think more along the lines of 4-8 or 5-7.

    You’d think they’d wait to sell until after the 5 game series with the cubs after the break if indeed they decide to do it.

    I projected 44-37 through the first 81 games. Thats at the end of the month and the halfway point.

    #56966
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    The 89-win pace seems dubious to me with how our fortunes have turned lately. The pace is actually 87 if you base it on a straight-line continuation of our current win-loss percentage. Of course fortunes change quickly and seeing our four relievers slam the door last night has me hoping.

    Another factor that has been harped on recently is we’ve had a relatively soft schedule to date, and it’s about to get tougher. I decided to check on that. With the cut off being yesterday’s games, the current cumulative opponents’ winning percentage of the previous 69 Cardinals’ games is .476 (2313 wins and 2546 losses). The current cumulative opponents’ winning percentage of the next 93 games is .505 (3307 wins and 3240 losses). That does seem like it might be a significant difference.

    #56972
    thejagerthejager
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    Whether a soft schedule or bad losses or whatever, we are 3.5 out of 1st in the division. We have swept Chicago in a series and took 1 of 3 without JMart and DEjong…and scored at least 3 runs in each game. We can play with them as we can against the Brewers

    You dont sell that close to your division lead, and definitely not when you are tied for the 2nd wild card

    It doesnt mean moves might not be made and hard decisions made, but selling as a talking point right now is a sign of pessimism not reality

    #56973
    AvatarOnyxgem
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    DUnno what to think of this team, started off great and has dropped off alot lately….it all depends on what happens between now and deadline really.

    #56977
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The Cards had the exact same record in May as they did in March-April – 15-12 both months. In June so far, they are just 7-8.

    In terms of the standings, they held a share of first place for five days late in April, but never had sole possession. They spent most of April between 2.0 and 3.5 games back. The Cards spent most of the second week of the season in fourth before improving to second mostly.

    In May, they held or tied for the lead for nine days in the first half, but for one day late in the month, they were five games out. They also dipped into fourth place for one day, but were mostly balanced among first, second and third.

    Here in June, they have been constantly in third place, between 3.0 and 5.0 games back in the division.

    #56981
    Avatarforsch31
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    BW52, you are massively underselling just how good Pham can be. Last year is exactly what Pham has always had the ability to do. He has had many injuries and the eye issue to overcome.

    Even with that said, if we could use him in a deal to make a major upgrade at 3B, SS or 1B, I think giving Bader and Mercado a shot in CF would be OK.

    #56990
    AvatarBw52
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    I dont think i am massively underselling Pham at all.I really think last season was his CAREER year and the league has caught up to him.you just dont hold on to a older asset when you have several replacement options available who IMHO can do the same things Pham does. Pham strikes out a lot,get picked off base,plays bad defense,have a crappy attitude towards the team and refuse to own up for his mistakes and has a lousy SB percentage.Hell no i will cheer often and loudy when he is gone.

    #56991
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Now that’s just not true. Pham put up around 8 WAR in a full season of play from his callup last year to early May of this. No one in the Cardinal system can put that up, or likely even half of that value. I also suspect he’ll be much better the rest of this season.

    #56995
    AvatarBw52
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    I suspect we have already seen the best Pham has.So what is he doing that is so great this season? Hitting .270? Striking out on a 150 plus pace? Trying to set a league record for stupid pickoffs in a season? Whoopee big deal………..for Pham……he showed his true side when he ripped the same organization that stood with him for 10 plus years while he was injured,playing poorly and struggling.A 30 year old OF with eye/injury/attitude issues………bye bye Phammie i hope soon.

    #56996
    AvatarBw52
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    STlcard25 last i heard what Pham did last partial season counts for exactly zero this season.

    #56998
    Avatar1964cards
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    I would try to be a buyer. This club has been competitive despite being plagued by injuries and without getting significant contributions from most of their highest paid players. I would try to move those not contributing and get bull pen or corner infield help.

    The club just has not gotten what they expected from Wainright, Fowler, Holland, Carpenter, Cecil and Gregerson. I would love to see the club move two or three of these players. However, I Suspect that the challenge the club will face is that any trade partner will want the Cards to eat salary. In addition, some of the performances have been so poor you may not get much in return even if you eat salary.

    • This reply was modified 2 years, 5 months ago by Avatar1964cards.
    • This reply was modified 2 years, 5 months ago by Avatar1964cards.
    • This reply was modified 2 years, 5 months ago by Avatar1964cards.
    #57002
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Bw52…you said that they can do the same things. I said that they can’t. You responded with some of your personal hatred toward Tommy.

    There is no one in the system who can reach the peak that Tommy was at literally 5-6 weeks ago, period. One bad month isn’t going to convince anyone otherwise.

    I suppose I might agree that he could be a sell high candidate, but I would hope you aren’t in sales because you haven’t given a very glowing review of your trade piece, lol.

    #57008
    AvatarBw52
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    Stlcard25 -it is not hatred.Too strong a word.Big dislike fits better.I think Bader can do the same things Pham can do.Plus Bader is a better defender. You are blinded by your Phammite worship he is a 30 year old guy with various injury/eye issues who has a case of the red as towards the organization .Now let me ask you this……what position is the Cards system deepest in rated players other than pitchers?So you think keeping a replaceable Pham (0.9 WAR) this year..
    .Behind. Dejong,Ozuna,Carpenter,Gyorko,Bader and tied with Wong,JMartinez
    That sure says replaceable to me.

    #57018
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I don’t worship Pham at all. I’m simply saying that he’s the most talented player in the Cardinals system right now. Bader isn’t in the same league. He’s a good defender who needs to be hidden against right handed pitching because he can’t hit it well enough right now. I like the OF in the system and you’re right that it’s a position of strength. I’d be more interested on seeing if someone wants Bader because I think Mercado can do what he does almost as well.

    What do you think Tommy Pham would be worth in a trade? Just so we’re on the same page regarding his candidacy.

    #57023
    AvatarBw52
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    I think Pham could bring a decent prospect or a young player getting close to MLB ready or both depending on the team needs and situation wanting a OF.

    #57029
    Avatargrayssportsalmanacc
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    I think most people on this board would rather see this team make moves to position themselves for the future in spite of this year..maybe im wrong, we are not better than the cubs,and i dont think this team can compete in the postseason. The goal of the FO is to be in a position to compete for the playoffs every year… but what other fan base would absorb a retool better than the cardinals?

    Its not like we are 2-3 years away, we could moves now that would position ourselves for success in the near future…im in favor of trading almost anyone with a contract, i know that sounds monday morning qb or reactionary but i am. I want to see above avg mif defense first and foremost and build from there…a fluid 6-4-3 to beat out a fast runner would be amazing, and seems like something we used to take for granted…

    #57030
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Like what? We talking top 100 type prospect? High end top 20 guy?

    IMO if you can’t get a top 20ish player it’s not worth it. We need star material and not more back end top 100 guys who all have holes.

    #57055
    AvatarBw52
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    Not worth it?Trading a 30 year old OF with various issues and keeping the 30 year old in front of a younger ranked prospect is just running in place.

    #57057
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    A 30 year old coming off an 8 win 162 games, fwiw. You do realize that it’s probably an 80%+ outcome for any of those prospects to get 8 wins in their 6 years of team control, right?

    I get that you’re down on Pham but it’s not like this is a slam dunk move. If you can’t pull an elite prospect, there’s no reason to go after a mid level guy or even two when you’ve got a potentially elite player already locked up pre trade. If he was a free agent this year or even next, it’s a different story then.

    #57064
    Avatarforsch31
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    Bader:
    Major League K/PA 0.2532
    Minor League K/PA 0.2376
    Major League 1 HR/29.13 PA
    Minor League 1 HR/25.08 PA
    Major League Splits .252/.309/.397/.706
    Minor League Splits .282/.346/.473/.819
    SB% 72.73%

    Pham:
    Major League K/PA 0.2541
    Minor League K/PA 0.2419
    Major League 1 HR/24.53 PA
    Minor League 1 HR/43.18 PA
    Major League Splits .279/.374/.479/.853
    Minor League Splits .258/.342/.417/.759
    AAA Splits (933 PA) .301/.376/.464/.840
    SB% 71.7%

    I have never heard that Pham is a poor defender. Where did you get that from?

    Pham has better splits in the majors than Bader with better power. They have almost identical K rates and SB rates.

    I have already stated that I think Pham could be used in a trade since we are so deep in the OF. Bader needs to replace Fowler.

    #57076
    thejagerthejager
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    There are a lot of players older than Pham that are elite hitters. 30 isn’t super old it is just old for a guy to have the amount of MLB success and appearances

    Pham has 8 WAR in him. He’s shown that at the MLB level. Even if only once it is more than Bader has shown anywhere.

    I like Bader a lot. Over Fowler 6/7 days a week at this point. But banking Bader to put up what Pham has and then banking on O’Neill Mercado or Adgarcia to be ready to put up Bader numbers now is a lot to hope for. Especially when O’Neill has shown Grichuk like ability to strike out at will despite his AAA performances

    And I like all the young OFers

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