Bryce Harper thread

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This topic contains 668 replies, has 37 voices, and was last updated by Brian Walton Brian Walton 2 weeks ago.

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  • #74935
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    mudville
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    Wiley – I’m with you all the way. I can’t say I don’t want Harper, but for all the reasons you mentioned, he is not my first choice for an impact player.

    #74938
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    Cardinals2016
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    Let’s say you are Mozeliak, and you are told you can spend $35 million per year to improve the team. You are staring at three options:
    1. Sigh Bryce Harper. Make Dexter Fowler a $16.5 million backup
    2. Sign Josh Donaldson for $20 million (3 years/$60 million). Sign Michael Brantley for $15 million (3 years/$45 million). Make Dexter Fowler a backup
    3. Trade Dexter Fowler + Dakota Hudson + Austin Gomber + Jose Adolis Garcia to the Diamondbacks for Greinke + Goldschmidt. You will likely slap a QO on Goldschmidt next year and recover a draft pick.

    Which option do you choose and why?

    #74939
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    forsch31
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    First of all, I don’t think you can acquire Greinke and Goldschmidt for that package. But assuming you can, I still choose option 2 with option 3 a very close second.

    The Harper, alone, option scares me for the long term. He has been very up and down over his career. I also wonder how it affects the ability to make other signings. If the contract is structured in a way that Harper will leave in 3-4 years, I would be in favor of that.

    I think Brantley and Donaldson for 3 years would provide for a feared lineup. I don’t like the idea on option 3 that Goldschmidt could leave after 1 year. You also weaken the defense with Carpenter moving back to 3rd. Also, Greinke could be in a decline that you may regret having to pay him what he is owed in year 3.

    Carpenter 1B
    Molina C
    Brantley RF (move to LF in 2020)
    Ozuna LF
    Donaldson 3B
    Dejong SS
    Bader CF
    Wong 2B
    P

    That’s a tough lineup offensively and pretty good defensively

    #74940
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    Bob Reed
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    Let’s say you are Mozeliak, and you are told you can spend $35 million per year to improve the team. You are staring at three options:

    1. Sign Bryce Harper. Make Dexter Fowler a $16.5 million backup
    2. Sign Josh Donaldson for $20 million (3 years/$60 million). Sign Michael Brantley for $15 million (3 years/$45 million). Make Dexter Fowler a backup
    3. Trade Dexter Fowler + Dakota Hudson + Austin Gomber + Jose Adolis Garcia to the Diamondbacks for Greinke + Goldschmidt. You will likely slap a QO on Goldschmidt next year and recover a draft pick.
    Which option do you choose and why?

    I really like the $35M premise, but I’m going to cheat and say #4, none of the above. Don’t want Harper for a decade, waaay too much risk. Don’t want Brantley to block Tyler O’Neill, esp. since Brantley is old and breaks too often. Don’t want to trade Dakota Hudson; if he meaningfully improves his command OR learns to use a 4-seamer up in the zone for strikeouts, he’ll be a #2/3 starter. If he does both, he’ll be an ace. Mucho upside with Hudson. Also, don’t want to acquire Grienke with $105M still left on his contract over the next 3 years.

    The rotation was 5th in all of MLB for earned run average. The starters ain’t the problem. Relative to his extraordinary salary commitment, Grienke has very little upside. And Fowler should just be released. That’s the Fowler option I choose. You can’t use him as a bench player. That’s absolutely not how he views himself; even with months to reflect on the matter, he still gripes about being benched last year, when he was perhaps the worst player in the National League. Crap player, crap attitude. Addition by subtraction.

    I’d get Donaldson for the 3 years/$60M, Yusei Kikuchi for $10-12M per year for anywhere from 3-6 years. Both could be bargains. (No one can realistically say that about the Harper/Machado/Corbin/ type marquee guys.) I have no idea whether Boras/Kikuchi are seeking a big BIG deal, or a more tactical, modest Mikolasesque deal that will allow Kikuchi to prove himself in the majors for a couple of years. If Kikuchi can’t make the Redbird rotation out of Spring Training this year, he slides over into the bullpen for a season. Then in 2020 he replaces Wacha/Mikolas when they depart.

    Save the remaining $3-5M for a bullpen upgrade at the trade deadline, or maybe rotation. And then trade Jose Martinez plus either Knizner or Kelly, plus perhaps a sweetener like Gomber or Gant or Adolis Garcia or Ryan Helsley to the DH league for bullpen help in the form of Taylor Rogers or Mychal Givens or Joe Jimenez, or Colome or Diaz from Seattle. If Arizona is the trade partner, get Andrew Chafin or Yoan Lopez. Triage principles demand you prioritize the worst wound first. That’s the bullpen.

    #74957
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    Well Robert, I almost put the caveat, “to acquire a middle of the order bat” to keep it on topic and prevent people from cheating….

    Don’t want Brantley to block Tyler O’Neill, esp. since Brantley is old and breaks too often.

    As Forsch noted in another history, Brantley’s injury included shoulder surgery after injuring his shoulder diving for a ball (just like how Ozuna injured his shoulder) that kept him out all of 2016 and and ankle surgery in 2017…I don’t consider the shoulder surgery anything more than a one time deal, especially when you look at his slugging % since coming back…

    As for blocking O’Neill, Ozuna only has one year until he reaches free agency…

    #74965
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    Wiley
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    Onyxgem, what I see is a Narcissist caught up in his own press clippings that the other Washington players can’t wait to get rid of and once they do, they will have a cohesive unit of extremely talented players who will make the playoffs in 2019. The Harper is God narrative is an anchor on the team psyche; an infestation on team moral. Is that what you want to bring into our locker-room for $35 mil a year. Let’s change the team name to St. Louis Harper’s & the other players formally known as Cardinals. Harper is NOT a leader; Goldschmidt is, Donaldson is. Harper at $25 mil a year could help us win a title. Anything above that will cause locker-room jealousies’ to flair when he hits below .275 again. Don’t buy into the exaggerated hype of Scott Boras. He’s no Mike Trout.

    #74966
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    Cardinals2016 – I’ll take option # 2, Donaldson is a gamer, a leader, a very intelligent player. I’ll take him and the World Series title to go with it. Brantley would be an excellent #2 hitter behind Carp and if he gets hurt, yet again, we have O’Neill to step in and do his best Mark McGwire impersonation.

    #74970
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    gscottar
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    Of those options I would take #3 all day and every day.

    I don’t like the idea of putting all of our eggs in one basket with Harper.

    Donaldson and Brantley are ok. They are good but not great, which has been the number one complaint of Cardinal fans the last few years. We are full of average to above average players but no elite players. I also have visions of Donaldson and Brantley sitting on the DL most of the time.

    Goldschmidt is an elite player. As elite as it gets. Our offense has been craving a bat like his. Yes it is for only one year but we have to hope we could re-sign him. If not, take the draft pick and move on. Greinke isn’t far removed from being elite himself and has stayed very durable. I say Option 3 of those choices.

    Also, let’s remember that will need a little money to spend on the bullpen too. We could move Gyroko and Wacha to free up the money to do that. Wacha becomes expendable with the acquisition of Greinke.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 4 weeks ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #74974
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    forsch31
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    Last 3 years:

    Donaldson – .273/.389/.537/.926; 146 OPS+; average 26 HRs per year; 20.1 K%; 15.3 BB%
    Goldschmidt – .295/.401/.528/.929; 138 OPS+; average 31 HRs per year; 22.8 K%; 14.3 BB%

    Acquiring Goldschmidt requires giving up prospects/players. He also moves Carpenter back to 3B which hurts our INF defense because he does not have the arm needed.

    Acquiring Donaldson doesn’t cost us anything except his contract. It allows us to use our prospects/players to acquire the bullpen upgrade we need. He also plays a good defensive 3B.

    #74977
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    NJ315
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    I agree if we go to Plan B lets roll the dice on Donaldson.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 4 weeks ago by Avatar NJ315.
    #74981
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    gscottar
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    You are assuming Donaldson is going to age as well as Goldschmidt. Big big assumption there. Which player has shown signs of breaking down physically the last two years? No thanks. I’m not paying Donaldson $60M to sit on the bench and spit sunflower seeds with Wainwright.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 4 weeks ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #74983
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    NJ315
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    Well Goldy will be here for only 1 year. Do you think they are going to sign him long-term at age 32? So no need to worry about how well or not he will age not our problem. As far as Donaldson I don’t want him either but he costs only money. You will need to make sure that the comp pick for Goldy is better than what you gave up to get him.

    #74984
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    CariocaCardinal
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    I find it ridiculously silly that fans and even baseball writers think that offering Harper one or more opt outs is good from the team’s viewpoint.

    #74986
    stlcard25
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    I find it ridiculously silly that fans and even baseball writers think that offering Harper one or more opt outs is good from the team’s viewpoint.

    Of course it’s not good for the team, overall. If he plays great, you lose him. If he plays badly, you get nothing. But it’s the reality of baseball. No opt outs guarantees you don’t get the player, so…yeah, in that sense it’s good for the team.

    #74989
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    Well, I think most here agree that Bryce Harper would be the least attractive of the 3 options.

    I’d probably go with Option 2 and sign Donaldson and Brantley. That would leave a batting order of:
    1. Carpenter
    2. Brantley
    3. Donaldson
    4. Ozuna
    5. DeJong
    6. Molina
    7. Wong
    8. Bader

    Only problem is if DeWitt insists on getting something for Fowler. Maybe trade him for Mark Melancon?

    As for the bullpen, I still feel the best trade of JMart is to Seattle for Alex Colome…Signing Oliver Perez to a one year deal as a LHP would be smart and within their risk tolerance, too.

    #75000
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    DangerZone
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    So Wiley, you don’t want harper because he didn’t win a World Series or lead his team to the postseason every year? But you want Donaldson because he didn’t win a WS or lead his team to the postseason every year? Oh and Brantley who never won a playoff series and batted sub 200?

    Guess you would rather have Heyward(1 WS) than Mike Trout also?

    #75007
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    Wiley
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    Clearly ‘DangerZone’ you never saw a single game Donaldson played in the playoffs and yes he led the Blue Jays on those post season runs. It wasn’t his fault they didn’t win it all. The Blue Jays W/L record nosedived with Josh on the DL. Funny you would mention Heyward and Trout since both are defensively superior to Harper. Somehow you missed my comment that Harper is no Mike Trout, inferring, of course, that the Angels superstar is much better then Bryce. Ergo there is no one I’d select over Mr. Trout. Heyward!?………Bahahahahaha!!!

    #75027
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    gscottar
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    NJ315

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    Well Goldy will be here for only 1 year. Do you think they are going to sign him long-term at age 32? So no need to worry about how well or not he will age not our problem. As far as Donaldson I don’t want him either but he costs only money. You will need to make sure that the comp pick for Goldy is better than what you gave up to get him.

    Yes I think the Cardinals would try to sign Goldschmidt long term. I don’t know if they would be successful but I think they would try, assuming he put up his normal numbers in 2019. I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion he would be a one and done.

    #75029
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    Interesting analysis of Harper’s defensive slide.

    So, I went and read the article Brian linked to earlier (p2), here are my observations:

    1. Bryce Harper is playing the deepest he’s ever played
    2. Because he is playing the deepest he’s ever played, he was tied for the most easy chances in baseball
    3. He converted those easy chances slightly under league average (97% versus 98%, which is just noise)
    4. Where he really fell off was not converting difficult chances, of which he had far fewer than in the past, because he is now playing deeper and has fewer difficult chances
    5. Of the plays they showed that had a 50% or better catch percentage,
    a. one was a line drive that was smoked and had almost zero hang time and would have required diving for the ball, in the best case. If he misses, it goes for 2-3 bases
    b. one would have been a very long run, and would have required diving for the ball. If he misses, it goes for extra bases if the runner is actually running
    c. one would have meant likely crashing into a wall

    Harper moved from CF to RF a few years ago because he was missing too many games due to injuries in the field.

    Without knowing how many opportunities he actually received, it sounds like Harper may have actually recorded more outs by playing smarter baseball and positioning himself deeper. He also played the most games of his career by not needlessly diving after balls or running into walls on balls with low catch probabilities.

    Ozuna injured his shoulder diving for a ball, and we all saw how that affected him. Brantley injured his shoulder diving for a ball, and many posters don’t want him because he is injury prone. Harper is better positioning himself, recording the most easy catches in the big leagues, but is being wrapped for having bad defense because he is not needlessly going after balls, that if he misses, wind up yielding an extra base or two.

    If you are going to have a $35 million per year player, would you rather he dive and run into walls or actually be on the field?

    #75031
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    CariocaCardinal
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    For $35 million I want a complete player

    #75032
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    For $35 million I want a complete player

    Again, it appears he is actually recording more outs this year, even though his defensive ratings look terrible.

    Same thing happened to Mike Trout last year.

    #75033
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    NJ315
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    Trying to sign is what they do best.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 3 weeks ago by Avatar NJ315.
    #75143
    Brian Walton
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    #75685
    Brian Walton
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    #75712
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    858booyah
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    It’s in the bag. lol

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 2 weeks ago by Avatar 858booyah.
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