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None of those big deals in the past were for 26 yr olds
closest mega deal at that kind of age i see is Stanton who got his mega deal at 25
and he has produced at a pretty high level for the 4 years of the dealI am tired of the changing narrative…people clamor for the a game changer a culture changer a fan inspiration and fan exciter…and a guy they talk about his generational talent then as they get bored in the offseason and see little happening to fill the dead time and their own pessimistic or impatient ends they start trying to spout off on how he is exactly what the team DOESNT need and contradict everything from before
Bryce plus a couple of top lefties (Smith and Rogers) makes this team a contender for the World Series next year…period… the hopes and dreams of ONeill maturing to a star level and FOwler figuring it all out again leave a big hole in RF…especially considering the unknown of Ozuna in LF combined with the undeniable terrible beginning of the season last year by Carp, the aging of Molina, the up and down of Wong and the same for DeJOng, Bader is defense first and while GOldy has been a rock…he was hampered last season and a horrific start like Carp and only took a monumental turnaround to make his line look impressive…and he stopped running which was such a part of his game that set him apart
Plugging in Bryce and his plus defense in the corner and ability to get on base alone would be worth it, the fact he also drives in runs and swats mega power potential gives us the extra mega upside we would need if we factor in a couple terrible things going wrong
one nice thing about a long contract in this case is that it protects you from a bad year or two if the player is high enough caliber to make up for it…make it a short deal and one injury really makes your investment go down…longer you can ride through it…also as the contract ends the top dollar figure will always be lower as inflation goes…
yes you will be overpaying for the 8-11/12th year…but HIS 8-12th years of the contract still put him at YAdi’s age not 40+ and struggling to physically be capable to play like some of the big contracts handed out to older guys
I am not the biggest Harper fan, in fact i disliked him a lot in WASH…but i dont deny his franchise changing effects on the field and off that he would provide
Jager- you are preaching to the choir.I agree with you and think he is worth a chance since he is just heading into his prime years.But no……too many refuse to take a chance and prefer to live in fantasyland and think Fowler will rise up to average and JMartinez will figure what a baseball glove is for.
I agree also Jager. But apparently his age is not a factor to be considered when assessing his value. I have been told this several times.
I agree also Jager. But apparently his age is not a factor to be considered when assessing his value. I have been told this several times.
No, you’ve been questioned as to why you’d freak out if the Cards paid Goldschmidt $25-30 million for his age 32-26 seasons when you seem to be happy and willing to pay Harper $35+ million for his same seasons.
Harper is more likely to be worth the big $$ due to age but he’s probably also more likely to be a big bust at the back end of the deal.
It is just baffling that the FO shows little or no foresight IMO.After 2019 Goldy,Wacha,Ozuna Wainwright,possiibly Carpenter and Gyorko could be gone.I expect Carpenter to stay but Gyorko? So there is the possibility that Cards could need 3B (if Goldy leaves Carp back to 1B)LF -could plug O`Neill in LF.Then you also have aging Molina,Lousy Fowler,aging Carpenter.Look at the money possibly coming off the books..13 million Ozuna,8 million Gyorko,2 Million Waino,8 Million Wacha,Gregerson also I think.So the uncertain corner OFs ,uncertain corner INF and the continued hoping Molina can stay healthy……..lots of hoping.
Then anybody thinking the Cards will be players for Arenado are just fooling themselves.He will want huge dollars also and he will be under 30 also.Anthony Rendon won`t be cheap either and he will be right at 30 years old.It all comes down to Dexter Fowler and his albatross contract hamstringing and de-nutting this front office.paying Harper 35 million for his age 26-35 seasons makes a lot more sense than paying Goldschimdt 25-30 million for his 32-36 season.At least you would get 6-8 years maybe more peak production instead of paying for the likely downside of Goldys career.
No. I was told the facts were the Goldy’s production was better than Harper’s so far. That is a fact but when I brought the point that Harper is only 26 and yet to play his prime and was told that was irrelevant. I was not “freaking” out at anything. I simply pointed that if I was going to invest a lot of money I rather buy the player’s prime year. But is a moot point isn’t. We have Goldy and he is a lock to be re-signed.
What projections can you offer that might help illustrate Harper’s future offensive growth? There is clearly no positive upward trend after his first six years in the majors. His best year by far was four years ago. If he is what he is, then his worth should be based on what he has shown to date.
OK, he is younger, so that might justify a longer term, but the money seems out of whack with his results. $35 or $40 MM per year for 10 years based on hope that he can get back to his 2015 level of performance?
And, yes, I still see an inconsistency in being willing to pay some players in their later years and not others. For example, Goldschmidt has been more consistent, while Harper has been very much up and down.
We have Goldy and he is a lock to be re-signed.
If I can believe that the Card’s future looks a whole lot brighter. IF.
too many refuse to take a chance and prefer to live in fantasyland and think Fowler will rise up to average and JMartinez will figure what a baseball glove is for
Is it too many or it’s just a numbers thing and some realize that it’s looks like at current roster construction and his contract being an albatross until he proves to be of any value that Dex very well could be in a timeshare with O’Neill in 2019.
I’m all for Harper but You’d have to move some contracts and when you got to make multiple moves and get creative to add someone like that then It more than likely isn’t going to work. Plus you think our GM and VP ops are that creative?
Goldy’s WAR is trending down since 8.7 back in 2015. I know Goldy is a better player than Harper no doubt. If not Harper fine then try for Arenado. This is not about all in for Harper or overpaying for him. I don’t want bash Goldy I am very happy he is a cardinal. I just don’t 6 years of him after this season. That’s a matter of preference.
Goldy’s fWAR is not trending down. Like Harper, he had a prior peak, but has been much more consistent since then.
2012 2.8
2013 6.0
2014 4.3
2015 7.2
2016 5.0
2017 5.2
2018 5.1Well like before it is a moot point Goldy it is. I still think it is wrong to sing him long-term but it seems that’s the way is going. I rather go after Arenado than sign Goldy. This is not about Harper as much as it is about Goldy.
IF we were willing to go big on stanton last year …which we absolutely were…then we should be willing to go big on HArper for the same reasoning
I could care less that HArper isnt at this 9WAR or whatever it was in his MVP season…he has provided 4+ (higher when you average in the 9.3) WAR before the age of 26…and as he heads into his prime years…
Carp grabbed 7 in his 26 age, and then hasnt been above 4 any other time until last year when he 5 at 31…
Harper has only one year under 4 (at 3.5) and been above 4 every year before his 26th year…
If Carp can get better i dont see why a better talent in Bryce cant do the same…if we expect Carp to give us 5 WAR this year at 31…which woudl tie him for his second highest WAR at age 31-2…I think you can expect Bryce to put up big numbers as he gets to 31-2 as well…
im not explaining this well…hmmm
if we got 4.5 WAR every year on average BRyce for the next 10 years…at 8million per 1WAR…then what is that? 36million per year x 10 years… 360million…
So if he wants 10 years and 400…fine…you pay the mark up a bit…because while you probably pay for some 3 WAR years in his 34-36 seasons…you get 7 years of chance for MVP level numbers that could make his value actually a steal at 10yrs 400million
Maybe Harper isnt an MVP every year…but he has been consistent in his youth until now going into his prime and showed he CAN be a beast and MVP level…
His high level of production (over 4 WAR) and consistency BEFORE he hits his prime should indicate we have a special and unique talent who is worth the expense to get…he will always be a plus corner OFer, a good runner, a very good athlete (he was a catcher), have big time lefty power….
we arent talking about hoping he holds up into his 40s or even LATE 30s…we are talking 36…lots of players perform well and at high levels at 36… yes it is a gamble when you go long term…but that is the game…
and if you want to attract more talent…you better have shown you are willing to pay….all we have shown money-wsie is that we will extend out homegrown…take chances on Mikolas’….and overpay for aging veterans….
The Holliday re-signing should have proved that paying big money for guys in their prime can be worth it when you pick the right guy..
The Holliday re-signing should have proved that paying big money for guys in their prime can be worth it when you pick the right guy..
Which is exactly why Goldy should be re-signed.
I should also point out that a lot of this debate has been Goldy vs Harper but we can’t rule out the possibility that we end up with both. To my knowledge the Cardinals have not come out and said “we are definitely out on Harper.” We won’t know until we know.
If Hosmer got 8 yrs I see no reason why Goldy won’t. I can see the Yankees giving him 8 since he could be their DH as he gets older.
NJ, with age being your hot button, I am very surprised to see you draw a parallel between Hosmer’s contract term at age 28 with Goldschmidt’s upcoming deal at age 32.
I can see more interest in Goldy than Hosmer and a team in the Yankees that have may offer him that. They gave Giambi 7 at age 31 so it wouldn’t be a stretch and they need a 1B really bad. If Goldy has a great season I think he may get 7 or 8. Or 7 and an option. I am equally surprised that based on past results you don’t see Goldy as the better more deserving player than Hosmer.
I don’t think Hosmer has anything to do with Goldy whatsoever, other than they play the same position. Let’s move this back to the Goldy thread.
The Yanks might be involved but Houston will probably be the main competition to sign him. They were interested in him this winter and that is his hometown.
I’d be surprised if he got more than 6 years but an AL team might consider stretching it longer. This is an example of where AL teams have the advantage over NL teams due to the DH.
Even though this discussion should be moved to the Goldschmidt thread, I don’t see what the DH has to do with Goldschmidt. He will not be physically taxed playing 1B at 38-40 years old. He won’t need to be a DH. He is a good defensive first baseman.
One of the obvious things that comes with signing Harper is that he becomes the face of his new franchise for the next decade.
I know his general reputation but I wanted to try to learn a bit more. This is from an article written a year ago by Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post, so it comes from a writer who has seen Harper every day.
There is good and concerning info both.
“…Harper is a good teammate but also an endless self-branding campaign. What mural will be painted on his next pair of cleats?
“…Harper sometimes sets an upper limit on how demanding any manager can be. Harper doesn’t jake on a grounder, or play Ted Williams-level attention in the outfield, very often. But once every couple of weeks is enough to undermine attempts at building a team with a fanatical attention to detail.
“…Harper is not a problem but, after six full seasons in the majors, he is also not a leader.”
Boswell’s conclusion, referencing the Nats’ quick playoff exit (and likely in reference to Harper’s .211 average that post-season, an identical mark to his 19 career post-season games):
“…Strasburg showed he’s probably a key to reversing the misery. Harper remained part of the mystery.”
Also, a year in advance, Boswell pegged the Nats’ peak offer as 10/$300. Accurate prediction.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/ct-bryce-harper-free-agency-worth-20171020-story.html
Controversial viewpoint. I don’t see it this way, as the Fowler money is sunk cost, either way. To me, the Harper decision stands on its own.
Since people locally seem to be fixated on the #Stlcards and Bryce Harper, consider this: They owe Dexter Fowler $49.5 million. They’d have to swallow it to move him, presumably, so essentially they have an extra $50m tax if they sign Harper.
— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) December 15, 2018
But to Junior it’s all about the money. Fowler’s cost impacts all activities regarding acquisitions. Now, of course they never even talked about Harper. They were stuck with Fowler in right field so they got Goldschmidt cheap for one year to sell tickets. Burt even if Fowler had not been acquired, Harper was NEVER a consideration.
To me the Harper decision stands as a foolish short-termed thinking happy with being on the fringes of contention type choice.No risk no reward.Sure its a long commitment but it also shows the fans that the team wants to be serious about winning.Are concessions prices going to drop or tickets get cheaper because Harper isn
t a Cardinal?So BDW has a higher payroll this season.....how much of that is likely gone after 2019? Quite a bit.The garbage about going after Arenado is just that bluster and BS.He will likely want 25-30 plus million a year...Rendon wont be much cheaper .Then there is the chance that neither guy makes it to free agency and sign extensions.So what do the Cards end up with if Goldy,Wacha,Ozuna,Gyorko all leave after 2019? Possibly still looking for a 3B,Carpenter probably goes back to 1B,and plugs O`Neill into LF likely if the albatross (Fowler ) is still here.Since the Cards have seemingly chosen the safe careful frugal path again I expect nothing more than running in place chasing Cubs,Brewers,maybe Pirates with the Reds pushing closer to the Cards.
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