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Though it was far less money, it is fair to remember that last winter, the Cards were adamant they were not signing a free agent closer, which is why them signing Holland late was such a surprise to us all. Of course, this is a much higher stakes poker game.
Maybe, just maybe — hear me out — it's Dec. 12 and he's rather familiar with the Cardinals and what they have to offer, doesn't have any questions, and they're not wasting his time until they have a better feel for how engaged they want to be. Maybe.
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 13, 2018
Bernie wades into Twitter, suggesting patience. Good luck to him.
I’m strongly in favor of Harper/STL. But don’t know what he’s seeking, don’t know where he wants to play, don’t know what other teams will do to get him … but yes, let’s scream at clouds. Let’s install a fake litmus test. https://t.co/2zJA5kaNbQ
— Bernie Miklasz (@miklasz) December 13, 2018
This is really funny, but I wonder if the MLB person manning this account will soon feel the wrath of Darth Cashman.
Nobody tell him both Death Stars were destroyed. 😂 pic.twitter.com/2gZ5YVu1OW
— MLB (@MLB) December 13, 2018
Tom Verducci has a really interesting article re Boras’ selling of Harper
I laugh when I read Cardinals fans on social media calling Harper a “transformative player”, because I know that means they are caught up in Boras’ bluster. Verducci called the agent several things, including “Master of the Metaphor”. I prefer Master Manipulator.
How much did Harper transform the Nationals? If he goes to the White Sox, will he transform them? My guess is they become the Midwest’s version of the Angels. (Poor Mike Trout!)
In reality, Harper had one tremendous year, in 2015, when he put up 9.3 fWAR. It took him the most recent three years combined to reach that. Last season, he would have been tied with DeJong for the third-best non-pitcher on the Cardinals.
Here are the Cards hitters by year who had higher fWARs than Harper:
2013 (4.1) – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
2014 (1.6) – Jhonny Peralta, Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, Kolten Wong, Matt Adams, Jon Jay, plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
2015 (9.3) – none
2016 (3.0) – Matt Carpenter, plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
2017 (4.8) – Tommy Pham, plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
2018 (3.5) – Matt Carpenter, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong (tied), plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)So, in his six years in the majors, Harper would have been the best player on the Cardinals one year. In their six years in the majors, Goldschmidt was better in five of the six years.
So you don
t think Harper would have helped make everyone around him better?Tommy Pham better than Harper ?LMAO,Peralta better? Jay,Wong,Adams all better? You cant be serious?This kind of thinking amazes me.On their best days Wong,Pham,Peralta,Adams etc are not the player Harper is.Goldy was better. Just happens Harper is about to enter those years. But of course we all know for a fact Harper for a the next 6 years will not come close to Goldy age 25-30 or even Goldy 31-35. So I see your point. Not sure the need to keep selling Goldy over Harper is a done deal. We got Goldy and we move on. I for one I am done with this. You got your wish and the better player. It is all good.
Yeas we all know for a fact Harper won`t get better in different surroundings.He will just be another average player who peaked at 23-24.So we can all be satisfied with the likely rental of Goldschimdt and the albatross in RF.Pardom me while I go puke.
Tommy Pham is actually probably a better player than Harper, and has proven that the last two years. Maybe he’s not as good a clubhouse guy, but on the field the results speak for themselves. The Cards would be far better off with Pham in RF this year than Fowler, if the FO had a time machine to undo that signing.
Pham better than Harper…………….Crazy talk Card25.Harper has had more good seasons before 25 years old than Pham will have in his entire career.So far Pham has had a PARTIAL GOOD SEASON and a good MONTH.nothing more.I bet all the pitchers in MLB would rather face Bryce Harper than the great and powerful Tommy Pham .
I am not selling anything. I have no power over any decisions. I am sharing information. I think it is a fair question to wonder how transformative a player Harper really is.
jj, the career total you cite is highly skewed by Harper’s 2015. As noted, he was phenomenal that year. Less so otherwise.
Bw52, I never suggested he is an “average player”, I am questioning whether he is worth 10 years and $350 million or whatever it will take to get him.
I try to use data, which is accurate, but that seems to get some people upset.
We’ve rehashed your bias enough so far, but I’ll just say that Pham outproduced Harper in each of the last two years. This is inarguable.
At arb salaries, he would be a huge bargain for his 4 fWAR/yr vs Harper at $35M a year for about the same production the next three years. And certainly hugely more valuable than Fowler, which is the point I was making.
It’s in the record books and bryce gets credit for it.
It’s easier to stay healthy at 1B than in the outfield. Bryce plays like his hair is on fire, which i admire about him. Paul is a better bet to get 650 PA’s.I see your point Brian- but is data the only way to judge or predict? There are always intangible factors involved that can`t be measured on a stat sheet .It might be old fashioned and flies against the prevailing statmania analysis but I think you also have to do the eye test..Can what this ballplayer bring to my team help us improve and what will I be willing to pay for that?Apparently the Cards choose to probably not go the Harper route and I wonder if most of that is because of the Fowler mistake and his terrible contract.That is a MO mistake and has and will likely cost this team.
I am not upset. I don’t understand you why fail to take into account the age factor. I agree there is no way of telling what Harper will accomplish age 26-35 (10 yr contract) but before you declare Goldy the winner can he play 26-31 as Goldy already has? So making an assumption that Goldy will keep this up for another 6 years at an older age and still be more productive than Harper is ok. So how much is Goldy going to cost for 5-6 years? I do not get how comparing two players at very different stages of their careers ia accurate data. It may be the way you are coming across Brian.
NJ, I did not use projections because they are debatable. I just chose numbers that are fact, so of course they are backward, not forward. I did not mention any players ages, because that is not the point. The point was to show how Harper measured up against the rest of the Cardinals in any given year. I included Goldschmidt as a relevant comparison point. I did not make any pronouncements about the future because I am not comfortable in doing so.
I do see that Fangraphs (Steamer projections) has Harper estimated to be a 4.9 fWAR player in 2019. So about what he was in 2017, very good, better than this year, but a long way away from 2015. (Carpenter is projected at 5.0, so roughly the same production is expected.)
Like I said, I think Harper is a very good player. I am just not sure he is “transformative” and worthy of a potentially record contract.
I never thought he was “transformative” but many especially the youngers fan do see him as that. I hope you are right and I am wrong. There are times when being wrong can be rewarding. Moving on.
Harper’s and Machado’s agents have been incubating that $400M number, and the idea that each player is indispensable, for at least two years. It kind of looks like the owners aren’t falling for that stuff anymore, at least so far. Neither one of them is Albert Pujols in his prime, or Mike Trout. Both of those players were ‘transformative’, IMO.
Cards have already outsmarted themselves.Signing Fowler.The contract that’s sucks the air out of the room and the life out of the team.
I turned my post here into an article.
Is Bryce Harper Transformational? Would he even be the Best Player on the Cardinals?
There’s no doubt that Harper would be a big pickup for any team and a boost to our lineup. But not for the cost or length of the contract he’ll command. Look at the current big long contract of Pujols(no disrespect), Votto, and others who will inevitably see declines as the contract wears on. We’d be better off spending money in the short term on pieces to improve the team, but without being saddled with long term liabilities. While doing that you develop young players who you can exercise more control over and who may be willing to sign longer deals or extensions with the team they came up with.
Harper would make this team a likely favorite to win the NL and maybe a World Series. But nothing is guaranteed, and much can go wrong. Look no further than the Nats this past year. I like the lineup we can put on the field, and whether Martinez stays or goes, it looks like a solid bench is built as well with some combo of Gyorko, Muñoz, O’Neill, Martinez, a backup catcher and the new addition from Tampa.
Go get some relievers, either via trade or free agency, and watch this team make a nice run in 2019.
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