photo: Bryce Harper (Russell Lansford/USA TODAY Sports)
Update: In the initial version of this article, 2012 was inadvertently excluded. The article below has been changed to include that season.
Scott Boras is the best in the business at what he does. And if you doubt that, just ask him and I am sure he would oblige. In an article this week at Sports Illustrated, Tom Verducci hangs a number of labels on the prominent agent, including “Master of the Metaphor”. I think “Master Manipulator” would be much closer.
One Boras-generated label that has caught on with a number of very anxious fans is his characterization of his free agent plum, Bryce Harper, as a “transformational player” – for whichever franchise signs him. At other times, Harper is billed as a “generational talent,” another grandiose tag.
Boras and his famous binders boast of the business as well as the on-field impact a Major League Baseball club would enjoy – if only they make the best offer for his client. Of course, at this point, no one knows what a winning bid would be – and it may take weeks to find out.
The St. Louis Cardinals are already a very lucrative franchise. They do not need to be transformed into a highly profitable business. Therefore, the financial benefits of signing Harper would appear to be less for them than it would be for a club less successful. Merchandise revenues are placed in a shared pool across MLB, so there is no substantial edge there.
That leaves the “transformational” tag to hinge on the 26-year old’s value as a player. It is worth remembering that Harper was unable to transform his long-time home the Washington Nationals, despite a very good supporting cast. In his seven years with the Nats, the club reached the first round of the playoffs four times, losing all four series, as Harper batted a collective .211.
To be more specific about his individual contribution, I reviewed Harper’s results, summarized by his Wins Above Replacement, WAR, per Fangraphs (shorthand, fWAR), and compared those annual results to the members of the Cardinals offense during those same seven seasons to show how he would have stacked up.
Here are St. Louis hitters by year who had higher fWARs than Harper, with his annual fWARs in parentheses. I also included the newest Cardinal, Paul Goldschmidt, for comparison purposes.
2012 (4.4) – Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday
2013 (4.1) – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
2014 (1.6) – Jhonny Peralta, Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, Kolten Wong, Matt Adams, Jon Jay, plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
2015 (9.3) – none
2016 (3.0) – Matt Carpenter, plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
2017 (4.8) – Tommy Pham, plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
2018 (3.5) – Matt Carpenter, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong (tied), plus Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona)
Harper had one tremendous year, in 2015, during which he put up 9.3 fWAR. However, it took him the most recent three years combined to duplicate that. In 2018, he would have been tied with Paul DeJong for the third-best non-pitcher on the Cardinals – and tied for fourth-best had Goldschmidt been on the team, as well.
In his seven years in the majors, Harper would have been the best position player on the Cardinals exactly one year, 2015. In those seven years in the majors, Goldschmidt was better in five of them. (Though Goldschmidt’s numbers are not shown here, he has consistency in his annual results that Harper has yet to demonstrate.)
In preparing the above, I stuck to facts which can easily be verified. Further, I did not make pronouncements about the future because by definition, any projections are wide open to debate.
However, for those who believe the best for Harper is still ahead, I did quickly review Fangraphs’ Steamer projections for 2019. They estimate Harper to be a 4.9 fWAR player this coming season. That is just about what he was in 2017 – very good, better than this year, but a long way away from his 2015 peak.
For reference, Matt Carpenter is projected at 5.0 fWAR this coming season – just a tad above the production that is expected from Harper. If that occurs, 2019 will be Carpenter’s third year in the last four and five of seven seasons in which he would have accrued a higher fWAR than Harper.
Do you consider Carpenter to be a “transformational” player?
I want to be clear that I believe (and the data confirms) that Harper is a very good player and would be a fine addition to any of the 30 MLB teams. I just do not see evidence that he is “transformational” and therefore, worthy of a potentially record-setting contract. However, his ongoing free agency saga certainly should be monitored, in case his terms eventually come down.
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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