- This topic has 301 replies, 36 voices, and was last updated 11 months, 2 weeks ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I think I am locking in to highest upside at this point on the hitter side. I’m not the biggest Holliday or Laviolette fan due to K rates, but I would take them over a pitcher and both do have very high upsides. In general, I agree this year doesn’t have any clear top candidates as I think all of this year’s class would have lasted past #7 last year.
My top 5 at the moment would look something like the following, but I want to see Fangraphs put an updated board out to see their take as they are typically much more critical of players. Given the lack of quality at the top and the fact the Cards aren’t going to have a pick this high again for a while in my opinion, I’m going pure upside of and not worrying if I miss.
#1 – Arquette
#2 – Holliday
#3 – Laviolette
#4 – Carlson
#5 – WillitsI would have a big run of pitchers after that though as I think the pitchers are a whole grade above the next position players. For me the next pitcher tier is Arnold, Witherspoon, Anderson, Hernandez (Hernandez highest upside in pitching group). I have Doyle a good amount lower as he looks more like an elite RP to me than a SP.
I do feel quite bipolar on this draft. For a top 5 pick, I should like a player much more than I do in this class. I’ve gone back and forth on the position players multiple times as there is something to nitpick with each. Mid season guys like Marek Houston and Dean Curley looked hot, but they likely don’t have the same upside.
^^^ What he said ^^^ Hope I’m wrong, but looking like a bad year to have the 5th pick. A whole lot of guesswork.
Probably a stupid question, but if he falls to 5, do the Cardinals feel “almost” obligated to pick Holiday?
Probably a stupid question, but if he falls to 5, do the Cardinals feel “almost” obligated to pick Holiday?
Colorado Rockies pick 4th. I would think they would feel more “obligated”
I don’t think career WAR is a great measure in this case due to how much the game has changed in the past 5 years.
Ahh…yes. You can’t use objective measurements to make an argument. You have to use rantings and ravings.
The Cardinals are no longer concerned about career WAR of any player. They are adopting the Tampa Rays business model. Burn em and churn em.
You still need to get pitching from somewhere, and this is most often at the top of the draft.
I would even take Jace Laviolette over any of the pitchers even though he has strikeout issues. The upside of him is tremendous as he plays a solid CF defense while having 40 HR power. Same risk as college pitchers most likely, but the value he would provide getting to his peak is higher than the value of the peak of Doyle, Anderson, or Arnold.
Not the same risk at all. The risk with Laviolette is he hits worse than Gorman at the major league level, if he even gets that far.
The risk of a Top-5 pitcher is that they blow out there arm and don’t recover.
Hopefully Walker and Gorman don’t continue to regress. If they do, we are in need of power prospects. Drafting for need is a recipe for regret and failure.
Ahh…yes. You can’t use objective measurements to make an argument. You have to use rantings and ravings.
I did use an objective measure. Go look at the WAR leaderboards for the post pandemic era. How many pitchers do you see in the top 10? The game is changing in regards to pitcher usage.
Not the same risk at all. The risk with Laviolette is he hits worse than Gorman at the major league level, if he even gets that far.
The risk of a Top-5 pitcher is that they blow out there arm and don’t recover.
You have double the risk of a top 5 pitcher. They blow out their arm and never accumulate any value (Gorman has had positive value in his career), or they also just fail. But it isn’t even just the risk, it is the upside for me. An every day star player has more value to a team than an ace just due to opportunities. Would you rather than Bobby Witt Jr. or Hunter Greene? Both are former #2 picks who have both been resounding successes and look like stars, but Witt will accumulate much more value in his career. Even their contracts indicate this as Witt got a $288,700,000 contract while Greene a $53,000,000, although both would get even much bigger at this point. The comparison isn’t at all related to the 25 draft though as none of the players look to be in the same tier as either of those at the draft time.
I realize this is a philosophical difference so I am not going to try to change your mind, just stating my opinion. No need to start trying to say I am ranting. We are all entitled to our own opinion. If we all thought the same, it would be a boring world and we would never learn anything.
Doyle is the real deal. He is mowing down batters in the best college conference in the nation, the SEC. His strikeout numbers are incredible.
BA’s Mock 3.0 has the Cardinals taking Jamie Arnold, LHP, LSU. (They have Holliday going first overall.)
I think that taking a pitcher with the #5 pick would be an unfortunate pick and possibly to probably a waste of such good fortune. At the same time, I do acknowledge that the best available player at any time may well be a pitcher. Arnold has upside, but of course so did Hjerpe when we took him and that bet looks like a loss.
I have a best guess question for you draft watchers.
Which scenario would you EXPECT to have the better value, over 6yrs of club control?
The trade return for Helsley dealt at the deadline, or, the compensation pick received for Helsley declining a Q-offer at season end?
Good question, JJ. Normally, a team would generally receive greater compensation via trade vs the compensation pick. But with Mo’s tepid trade record, this may not be the case with Helsley. I’d love to see baseball teams being able to trade draft picks. It adds so much more excitement to Draft Day. Look at what it’s done for the NFL and NBA. Not sure on this, but I think first it would have to be green lighted by Manfred and then put forth to be collectively bargained by the players association. It’s long overdue.
As Pugs alluded to I would take my chances handing over the compensation pick to Mr. Bloom rather than see what kind of trade return Mr. Mozeliak receives.
I’d just as soon take my chances on a pitcher with high upside, rather than an outfielder that has trouble putting the bat on the ball like Gorman and Walker. Maybe try for a hitter again in the 2026 draft.
Regarding trading Helsley, I think most would agree that it depends on where the Cardinals are in the standings at the trade deadline. There’s also the outside possibility that the Cardinals might try to extend Helsley after the end of the season. Seems highly unlikely, but you can’t rule it out. The Cardinals do not have a replacement for Helsley lined up and we all know what it feels like to lose a game after going into the 9th with a lead.
The Cards were a team that would receive a pick after the 2nd round and competitive balance B picks. I don’t know if that will change enough in one year to get them into the revenue sharing recipient list (which would get a pick after round 1 and comp A if the guy signs for $50m+), but it may happen in the future if Bill cries poor enough.
Doesn’t it seem likely that the Cards draft Arnold, Doyle, Anderson, or Hernandez. Doesn’t likely Holliday would fall to them. If Hernandez is the only one of the four left that might open up other choices, as I am not sure the Cards would draft a prep righty.
Yeah the most recent MLB mock draft has the Cards in on the college pitchers. They also have Eli Willits as a possibility. Fingers crossed it is one of the higher upside position players. But watch them take a college pitcher and that guy have an excellent career. Hopefully whoever they draft does as the Cards won’t be picking this high again for a while most likely.
https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/mlb-pipeline-2025-mock-draft-may-15?t=mlb-draft-coverage
One thing that stands out in TCN ranking is that the Cardinals organization overall is completely devoid of a power hitting corner outfielder. Almost makes me want to take Jace LaViolette in the Draft, although the potential for gaining another so called ‘hitter’ that strikes out half of the time is alarming.
Respectfully mudville, aside from catching prospects & a couple of outliers, the Cards system is devoid of high end talent at almost all positions! That’s the byproduct of Mo’s visionary philosophy of all floor, no ceiling position players & seeking out pitchers who have limited upside/projection left. You’re left with a bunch of AAAA players and organizational backfill.
I have no problem if they go pitching with the 1st pick, provided that arm has top of the rotation potential. Creative & forward thinking GM’s (is it 2026 yet??) would strategize that if 2-4 players are at roughly the same level of ability, draft the one willing to take the smallest bonus & then repurpose that money to draft a couple of higher-end, high school position players in Rd’s # 2 & 3. Crazy talk, I know!?!? That’s how you start to build back a farm system left relatively barren by the 2021-2024 drafts. I wanted so badly to believe that the 2020 draft was a start of a new, aggressive style of player procurement, but alas, it was an outlier. The Cards haven’t drafted a high school player (not counting the throwaway picks in Rd# 19 or 20, in three years! How is that even possible???
Ok, rant over… 🙂
Creative & forward thinking GM’s (is it 2026 yet??) would strategize that if 2-4 players are at roughly the same level of ability, draft the one willing to take the smallest bonus & then repurpose that money to draft a couple of higher-end, high school position players in Rd’s # 2 & 3. Crazy talk, I know!?!?
I am only a fan of this if your scouts really can’t decide that one of a couple of players is better, but most times they can. However, if they do draft a college pitcher at 5, I would hope they can work out a deal to be quite underslot and then target high upside HS players in their other top 100 picks. I agree though high level they need to target All Star upside as the farm is lacking there on the hitting side beyond Wetherholt, Rainel Rodriguez, and maybe Yairo Padilla.
The more I hear about Eli Willits though, the more I want to take him at #5. BA’s Carlos Callazo and Peter Flaherty thinks Willits is better than Ethan Holliday and the top prep position player in the country. I like mixing analytics with old school thinking that intangibles matter. You can be super talented, but if you aren’t a hard worker, it may not matter as someone less talented will pass you up. Willits though is incredibly gifted physically and reportedly has great intangibles.
Willits has the nonstop motor and instincts to get the most out of his physical tools.
I’m calling it that Willits will be a star one day. He has big league blood lines, amazing physical tools, great intangibles, and is young for the class. He worked extra in school to get his classes knocked out so he could graduate a year early at 17.6 years old for draft time. Scouts think he has a great chance to stick at SS (80% odds to stick), but I’m not worried if he can’t as he would make a great CF as well with his speed and baseball instincts.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.