2025 Draft

I’m trying to figure out why you keep using the Orioles as an example. Have you looked at their draft classes? They generally get no value from every draft over the past 10 years.

Oh man. I did an analysis a couple of months ago, just for you.

And I am only concerned with the current drafting regimes of each club.

What happened with the Cardinals when they lucked into a 13th rounder in 2001 has nothing to do with how good the Cardinals are drafting today.

Same thing for Baltimore – what happened before Mike Elias is irrelevant to the team today.

This is basic research methodology.

You have done empirical research before, correct?

And you know that a flawed methodology produces flawed results, correct?

Sometimes you have to cut through the BS. The current state of the organization proves they suck at everything, including drafting. I agree stats can be produced to prove whatever, but so what.

It took Brian way more words to say the same thing. 🙂

Forgive my confusion, but can the Cards possibly pick in the Top 10 again in 2026, if 2025 doesn’t go well, or can they only pick in the Top 10 two years in a row? I forgot, or perhaps misinterpreted, the MLB rule about certain teams being unable to pick in the lottery for more than two straight years.

I’ve been looking through some 2025 draft info during the slow offseason. Baseball America came out with their top 200 a few days ago. This draft class has a lot of interesting names, but I don’t think it has quite as good of names at the top. Overall it is likely a better draft, but I see some faults with the current top of the list players.

I do like some of the players but I hope to see some gains from some of these guys this spring. In general I absolutely have a bias toward up the middle players with above average hit tools and a strong bias against taking pitchers given the changes in the game and injury rates. Cam Canarella is a player I really like. Great CF defense and bat to ball skills; I want to see some power out of him this spring to justify taking him at #5. The other college bats I like a good amount are Dean Curley and Devin Taylor. On the high school position player side, Billy Carlson and Eli Willits seem like the types with good springs they can make a case for #1.

There is obviously a lot that can change between now and the draft. I look forward to seeing how some of these guys develop and the improvements they can make. The top 5 from MLB and BA will not be the top 5 come July and I expect some guys to make great improvements.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2025-top-mlb-draft-prospects/

With all the QO guys signing contracts, the Cardinals will have the 5th, 55th, 73rd and 89th picks in the first 100 picks. That’s pretty huge.

Willit’s is interesting. This class is interesting in that there isn’t a clear cut top few guys and it will change throughout the season. Arnold is the best bet to stay up there. My list at this point has a lot of SS on it, although that does not necessarily mean they will play there going forward. Dean Curley, Billy Carlson, Marek Houston, and Wehiwa Aloy are players I have liked so far, although Curley and Carlson are a step above those other 2 for me.

I don’t know why PG has Holiday at 2. He has such severe contact issues I wouldn’t take him in the top 10 and the same is likely true of Laviolette with his struggles. They both have batting practice power, but that doesn’t matter if their contact is so bad their game power doesn’t come through. I’m also out on Cannarella with his struggles and the lack of upside as he doesn’t project for much power or contact.

If the draft falls out like that, I have no problem with the Marek Houston pick. I maybe would be leaning to Billy Carlson for the upside though. I don’t see any way a team should be taking a HS pitcher 1st overall. Too much risk, and pitchers have smaller workloads now with higher injury chances. I will say no way the Angels don’t take Arnold #2 if he is there. They are so aggressive targeting floor they maybe would even let him pitch in the majors this year.

Arquette is someone I wasn’t high on initially, but I am glad to see his walk rates increase. Depending on the underlying swing decision metrics he is showing, I would take him at #5 if he makes it.

I’m surprised they have the Tennessee duo of Curley and Kilen lasting as long as they do as both have really good bats.

The only college hitter that is showing Top-5 worthiness so far is Gavin Kilen, who missed 11 games with a hamstring issue.

I’d pass on Houston at #5 and try to get one of the Lodise cousins in the second round. Kilen played SS his first two seasons at Louisville before transferring to Tennessee.

Pitching-wise, Arnold isn’t even the best pitcher on his team this year. I’d prefer Kyson Witherspoon, who can touch 99 mph. Not sure about the scouting reports on Liam Doyle, but he led his team in strikeouts last year, and leads the NCAA in strikeouts this year. He’ll probably go in the Top 15.