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I think this is the best Cardinals news we have heard for awhile. JJ (Westherholt) was a huge bump imo. Now this. Luck does play a role. I can’t imagine Bloom not being the final say on this. Hit on this pick and I think the future is very bright.
For the record, I don’t think that Flores has done a bad job at identifying talent. There have been a lot of pretty successful guys in our system over his time at the helm. I think the development team hasn’t done very much with the scouting team’s finds to make the entire system look very good. Here’s hoping that Bloom can pull the right levers and push the right buttons to get things heading in a much better direction.
Again and again, all the models out there I’ve seen show the Cardinals are elite at drafting players. Top 5 at least if not top 3. I know VEB just did another article on this the other day, but I’ve seen Fangraphs and Bleacher Reports articles in the past that support this as well. The team’s flaw has been trading some of those players away for lesser value and in poor free agent signings. Plus, the lack of a good international program. But drafting, they are great at that.
I just love having the financial flexibility that comes with pick #5. In theory they could pick a guy they were looking at 15# and have the extra signing cash ability to go over slot on the other guys. Just opens up a lot of avenues.
bling said:
Hopefully he won’t draft pre-injured pitchers this time.
So you can see the future and already know it was a bad decision for the seventh and eighth rounds in 2024. Impressive!
Fantastic news for H.Bloome and the organization going forward. No excuse to not land a top prospect at five.
One of our subscribers offered this in an email. Any comments from those who follow draft-eligible players?
I see the possibility of selecting Jaime Arnold (LHP, Florida State): https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=arnold004jam
I see the possibility of selecting Cam Cannarella (OF, Clemson): https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cannar000cam
I see the possibility of selecting Xavier Neyes (3B, prep, Mount Vernon, WA). I confess, I am a little leary about northern climate players in the draft. Add to that, he is a prep with a northern climate background. Exhibit A: Nick Plummer, 2015 draft, drafted 23rd overall in the first round by the Cardinals.
I see the possibility of selecting Kruz Schoolcraft (LHP/1B, prep, Portland, OR). His physicality, 6′ 8″, 225 lbs. is enough to make a scout salivate. Neyes and Schoolcraft are two preps from a northern climate environment who appear to ooze talent. With Schoolcraft you also have him as a member of a demographic, prep pitchers, that has a history of some volatility.
Unless he falls flat on his face, at this way too early stage of evaluation for the 2025 draft, I would go for Jaime Arnold. Having a stud of a pitcher in one’s minor league system is priceless. I would guess that Jaime Arnold would immediately be slotted either 1, 2 or 3 in the Cardinals minor league system.
With the decreasing role of SP and increasing injury odds, I would not draft a SP there unless they are a full tier above the next positional player.
In a dream world Laviolette or Holliday make it to #5. But a whole lot can change between now and draft day and there will be some new names at the top.
I agree there is no point thinking about who a good pick at #5 is right now. See how it looks in May.
We could talk about whether they will go for a high floor pick again. Whether they will go away from West Coast players again. Whether they will go position player again. Maybe go under slot to save a bundle to entice a prep stud. Stuff like that.
This is the second drat in a row where there is not a lot of talent to get excited about after the first 5-10 picks. Hopefully that changes when the college games, and the prep games, get going next spring.
Again and again, all the models out there I’ve seen show the Cardinals are elite at drafting players. Top 5 at least if not top 3.
I don’t agree with this. I think those studies are flawed because the Cardinals hold on to players and don’t trade them, whereas other teams trade them for top-tier players. Look at what the Yankees do every year. Last year, they traded several prospects for one year of Soto. This year, they traded more.
The Cardinals already have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. Could you imagine if they were actually trading their best prospects?
Teams aren’t allowed to pick top 6 in 3 straight years but Cards could easily end up top 6 next year if the ping pong balls bless us. Actually I think there is a stipulation about revenue sharing but I can’t remember if it would disqualify us from another top 6 pick or not.
Cardinals are not a revenue-receiving team. They cannot be in the top 6 in consecutive years.
Revenue-receiving teams can be in the lottery two years in a row, but not three.
So, there is no point in tanking in 2025.
LACardFan – it’s just looking at draft results. It doesn’t matter whether they are traded or not. The Cardinals are elite at drafting. What they do with those players afterwards is another story.
And yet, the Baltimore Orioles run circles around them over the least six years.
How does Baltimore show up in those studies?
I know you think this LACard fan but the data says you’re wrong.
The recent one from VEB the other day had the Cardinals at #6 from 2000 to 2019. The Orioles are #26. From 2014 to 2023, the Cardinals are #4. The Orioles don’t show up on his list because they are neither top 6 or bottom 6 for this timeframe. Every list I’ve seen from every angle over the last 5 years always lists the Cardinals as a top team – sometimes #1. They are really good at drafting future major league players that garner a lot of BWAR/FWAR compared to other teams. I agree they haven’t always made good choices with those players by trading some of the wrong ones away or holding onto others too long. But they are good at drafting, which was my point above.
Jnevel – methodology matters. Timeframe matters.
And the Orioles are blowing away the Cardinals over the last six years. Their second rounders are out-producing are FIRST & SECOND ROUNDERS COMBINED.
Giving credit to the Cardinals for hitting on 7th & 8th rounders when they are busting on second rounders is flawed. Because you don’t risk the busts in the second round and hope your players fall to you in the 7th or 8th round.
The Orioles are 11th overall in the past 10 years. I found it in another place. That’s with them having an average draft position of 13 compared to the Cardinals at 22.
I don’t get you. So 7th and 8th rounders shouldn’t count? That makes no sense. The draft (and international draft) allots a some of money to teams. You have to give them credit for their overall results/performance.
I’m trying to figure out why you keep using the Orioles as an example. Have you looked at their draft classes? They generally get no value from every draft over the past 10 years. The major exception is 2019 when they picked #1 overall and got Rutschman. Then, in the 2nd round, they used the 42nd pick to draft 27th rated Gunnar Henderson out of High School. They had the draft funds to do that because of the nature of their picks where other teams were scared by sign-ability. But that was it for 2019. Huge value in 2 picks with one being number 1 overall. Then in 2020 they got the number 2 overall pick and took Hjerstad. That’s really the story of their “good drafting skills”. Of course, in 2022 with the number 1 overall pick they took Holiday. It’s hard for me to give too much credit to these number 1 and 2 overall picks. Yes, Henderson was a good pick. But they used some savings from Rutschman to get him (because again, they had #1 overall).
Who am I missing? I guess Colton Cowser had a good year this season. But he was #5 overall in 2021. Grayson Rodriguez has been a solid starter for 2 years. He’s another first round pick at #11 overall. All of these first rounders that worked out are picks before the Cardinals ever got a chance at them. I can’t find anyone else but I may be missing one or two.
The recent one from VEB the other day had the Cardinals at #6 from 2000 to 2019.
I would argue that the years 2000-2014 are irrelevant, as they have zero impact on the state of the Cardinals.
The Orioles are #26. From 2014 to 2023, the Cardinals are #4
Let’s go by when the current regimes took over, not some arbitrary dates. When did Randy Flores get put in charge of the draft for the Cardinals?
When did the current regime take over in Baltimore?
Flores doesn’t get credit for what others have done.
And I haven’t seen the Cardinals farm system ranked in the Top 5 in many years.
The Orioles are 11th overall in the past 10 years. I found it in another place. That’s with them having an average draft position of 13 compared to the Cardinals at 22.
Again, their second rounders have outperformed the Cardinals FIRST & SECOND ROUNDERS COMBINED.
They totally blow us out of the water when you factor in first rounders.
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