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osuagec posted this on another thread. May as well start a 2025 draft one now.
Wasn’t sure where to put this so I will put it here. 2025 Draft Lottery odds. Unless we get really lucky we will probably get the 15th draft pick.
Rockies (61-101): 22.45%
Marlins (62-100): 22.45%
Angels (63-99): 17.96%
Nationals (71-91): 10.2%
Blue Jays (74-88): 7.48%
Pirates (76-86): 5.31%
Reds (77-85): 3.67%
Rangers (78-84): 2.45%
Giants (80-82): 1.9%
White Sox (41-121): Ineligible
A’s (69-93): Ineligible
Rays (80-82): 1.5%
Red Sox (81-81): 1.22%
Twins (82-80): 1.09%
Cardinals (83-79): 0.82%
Cubs (83-79): 0.68%
Mariners (85-77): 0.54%
Diamondbacks (89-73): 0.27%The White Sox have been so bad for so long that they had the most losses in MLB history and will get the #10 pick.
It would be great to beat the odds and nab the other Holliday son at #1, but it’s most likely that we will pick 15th.
On one hand I get it, but if the Cards were being truly strategic & focused on their rebuild, that little winning surge they had the last 7-10 days would not have occurred. 79-83 gets them the 9th pick & more bonus pool money.
Baseball being how it is, I am surprised they haven’t decided to base it on something wonkier than number of wins.
They didn’t innovate. They just tweaked the NBA model. Interestingly, NBA only uses the lottery for the first four picks though the bottom 14 teams have a chance. After pick #4, W/L record takes over. I think I like that better.
As long as they base the order on something baseball related. If they ever.base it on DEI stats ou something similar they probably lose me as a fan forever.
Sharing what the full odds would be if Oakland and the White Sox weren’t ineligible from some site I found. I think our odds would actually end up being more like #14 for the top 6 picks.
About a 7% chance to pick in the top 6, but also about the same % chance someone behind us wins the lottery and we drop back a spot or two from 15.
Though it seems that Mo & Flores will remain in charge of the Cards draft in 25, I’m actually excited by what they might do with all these new people & accompanying organizational philosophy they’re trying to embrace! Dreams of high upside position players, power pitching prospects & dare I say, a few high school players, fill my head with optimism.
If one of their offseason trades involves acquiring a Competitive Balance pick and/or more international bonus money, I may cry tears of joy!!
Since the upcoming draftees will impact the organization beyond 2025 I would think Bloom will be involved in the process as well, which is a good thing.
Not directly related to the 2025 draft but this article looks at the top drafting and developing organizations for the last 20 years and the last 10 years.
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/11/30/24286691/draft-and-develop-results-the-2024-update
The #STLCards did not show up at No. 14 in the MLB Draft Lottery, meaning they have surged into the top six selections. They have a 0.82 percent shot at No. 1.
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) December 10, 2024
High five!
We'll have the 5th overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft!#ForTheLou pic.twitter.com/H8MtjkaMwc
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) December 10, 2024
5th…not bad
#stlcards pick No. 5.
Started 13th in the draft — made a leap of eight spots. They'll now draft higher than they have since 1998, when they took J. D. Drew with the fifth overall pick.
What a stroke of luck for #Cardinals and what it could be for back-to-back drafts.
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 10, 2024
Having the 5th pick, plus not losing their 2nd round pick for a change thanks to a mediocre signing, plus having that sweet sandwich pick back…it should be a really fun draft next July. It would have been really fun to get the Holliday son, but hopefully there will be pitching available to take.
The 5th pick, the competitive balance round B pick, and Zack Thompson is allowed a 4th option. Lots of good news for the Cards.
Hey we got lucky! 2 years of good picks. I don’t think this next year’s class is supposed to be quite as good at the top, but still pick 5 will be much better than what we would get at 13. Maybe we can get lucky and have the guy some have as the #1 prospect making it to us again.
We need a special bat and a TOR pitcher in the organization. The problem with having this high of a pick is that we still have the same people drafting unless Bloom is going to have a large say in that pick.
It may have been lucky to have slipped to #7 last year. Teams aren’t allowed to pick top 6 in 3 straight years but Cards could easily end up top 6 next year if the ping pong balls bless us. Actually I think there is a stipulation about revenue sharing but I can’t remember if it would disqualify us from another top 6 pick or not.
We should have:
1-5
2- around 50-56
2B – around 70-75
3 – around 90-954 picks in the top 100 will be so helpful to this “reset”.
I think as of now Holliday’s other son is the consensus #1, at least on the few mocks I saw
Here is a way to early top 10 I saw on MLB.com
1. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS, Okla.
2. Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
3. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
4. Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
5. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS, Calif.
6. Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS, Tex.
7. Aiva Arquette, 2B, Oregon State
8. Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS, Wash.
9. Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP/1B, Sunset HS, Ore.
10. Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona
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