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The Cardinals have a total bonus pool of $14,238,300 according to BA which is 8th highest. I wonder with the Cardinals having some down years if they can start getting those comp round picks consistently again.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-slot-values-for-each-team/
The latest BA mock has the Cardinals taking Aiva Arquette at 5. Arquette has been playing very good this year at Oregon State and is showing great power potential while also improving his eye at the plate. That was my concern with him going into the year, but I really like seeing the almost doubled walk rate and slight cut down on the strikeout rate.
Question for anyone with deeper knowledge of analytics. How do you compare exit velocity of high school / college players to pros when the former are using aluminum bats. (Or aluminium for our British viewers.)
That is a good question and I don’t have the answer and I don’t know if the teams have one either. College exit velociteis are up as a whole and I’ve heard Eric Longenhagen say in his chats that it makes it harder to trust the hitting results of college players.
The latest BA mock has the Cardinals taking Aiva Arquette at 5.
I would be okay with the Cardinals taking Arquette in the Top 5, but I prefer Kilen due to Arquette’s strikeouts.
I would guess the Cardinals are likely to go HS SS or college pitcher in the Top 5.
Question for anyone with deeper knowledge of analytics. How do you compare exit velocity of high school / college players to pros when the former are using aluminum bats.
They reconstituted the composite bats several years ago because the exit velocities were becoming dangerous for pitchers.
Last year, Jac Caglianone was noted for having EV’s as high as 114 mph.
I wouldn’t say Arquette has strikeout issues. His plate discipline overall has been improving with his walk rate almost doubling. His K% is 15.2% which is average. I start getting worried with college players when they have K% of around 20%. I don’t think it matters though on the Cards feelings of Arquette as he has shown enough improvements with the bat and the glove to stick on the left side of the infield. He likely won’t make it to #5.
Jamie Arnold is the only college pitcher I would consider picking at #5. Given the Angels draft tendencies though, I don’t see Arnold having any shot of making it past #2. There is a lot of buzz on Seth Hernandez the HS pitcher going #1 overall or close, but no way I go near a HS pitcher this early in the draft. Maybe someone else will take him though and then the slate of HS and college hitters are available for the Cards.
I wouldn’t say Arquette has strikeout issues.
College hitters who finish the season with 60 strikeouts or more tend to do poorly in pro baseball. Arquette already has 32, so he’ll finish the season in the 50-60 range.
Kilen has 11 strikeouts in 48 fewer AB’s. Now, Kilen has only hit one HR since returning from a hamstring issue. But if I am investing a Top-5 pick on a college hitter, I am going with the one with less swing-and-miss. Especially since the Cardinals have shown zero ability to correct swing-and-miss issues.
Jamie Arnold is the only college pitcher I would consider picking at #5.
I think Kyson Witherspoon and Liam Doyle will have Top-5 consideration before the end of the season.
Unless you have a chance to get a Paul Skenes type (which we don’t) then I think the Cardinals should stop drafting pitchers in the first round because since it is the Cardinals there is a 90% chance the player is going to be plagued with injuries. Just draft the best position player you can get in the first round and move on.
Completely agreed with your statements GScottar. I’m only drafting a pitcher if they are a clear grade above the best hitter available. Draft hitters with high potential in the 1st couple of rounds and then use the mid rounds to target pitchers your development org thinks they can improve.
I like Gavin Kilen, but he is more of a 10-20 type pick. College numbers are nice, but at the end of the day it is the player’s skills that matter. See Christian Moore who excelled in college, but scouts thought he had flaws and so far he has not looked good this year and is striking out at a much higher clip than his last year in college.
I don’t know if he is coming out or not but if so I would to see is draft the center fielder from Clemson Cam Cannerella! He is great athlete who can hit and is already a gold glove type CFer!
I thought with a good year Canarella and showing power would be a top 10 pick, but I don’t think so any more. Pre-season scouting report had him with a 40 hit tool and 45 game power with a plus glove. Canarella has shown hardly any power this year and looks like more of a back of the 1st or early 2nd round pick. Canarella just doesn’t have the upside potential to warrant a top 10 pick anymore.
I like Marek Houston a lot as a ball player and originally thought at 5 he may be a good choice, but in hindsight I also don’t think he has the pure upside to warrant #5. He had some power results this year, but the projections of his power are still below average against MLB pitchers.
Reports from Jonathan Mayo have the Nationals looking at their choices for #1 being Ethan Holliday, Seth Hernandez, Jamie Arnold, and Aiva Arquette. Plenty can change in the next 2 months though.
I have watched Cannerella a lot this year! No doubt he hasn’t quite hit this year like his first two! Everyone has good and bad years offensively! His defense is unreal! Some have said he is the greatest CF prospect ever concerning defense! Time will tell of course but I love this kid! He is gonna play MLB for a long time for someone IMO!
I like Jace LaViolette, OF from Texas A&M. I saw him play in person a couple of weeks ago against my Arkansas team. He is an elite hitter and a very capable RF. He is 6″6, 230 but very athletic. There is some swing and miss in his game so there is always the risk he could be another Nolan Gorman but I think this kid is a top 10 pick.
USA Today had Cardinals drafting Billy Carlson.
MLB Pipeline had the Cardinals landing Jamie Arnold at #5
It would be really nice if Holliday fell to us, although having Colorado in front of us hurts. Not sure I want to bet on a pitcher in the top 5 unless he’s Skenes 2.0.
The MLB pipeline mock is interesting. I feel it has more of the hot names at the top. Doyle has too much RP risk with his lack of a 3rd pitch and violent delivery.
In general, I think I will be happy as long as they draft a hitter. Drafting a pitcher, even a college pitcher at 5, is a huge risk and the reward is not as high as drafting a position player given the modern game. I would even take Jace Laviolette over any of the pitchers even though he has strikeout issues. The upside of him is tremendous as he plays a solid CF defense while having 40 HR power. Same risk as college pitchers most likely, but the value he would provide getting to his peak is higher than the value of the peak of Doyle, Anderson, or Arnold.
Active Leaders by WAR for Pitchers:
1. Justin Verlander – College RHP – Round 1, Overall #2 – 81 WAR
2. Klayton Kershaw – HS LHP – Round 1, Overall #7 – 76.5 WAR
3. Max Scherzer – College RHP – Round 1, Overall #11 – 74.4 WAR
4. Chris Sale – College LHP – Round 1, Overall #13 – 53.6 WAR
5. Jacob deGrom – College RHP – Round 9, Overall #272 – 43.3 WAR
6. Gerritt Cole – College RHP – Round 1, Overall #1 – 42.6 WAR
7. Aaron Nola – College RHP – Round 1, Overall #7 – 36.4 WAR
8. Zack Wheeler – HS RHP – Round 1, Overall #6 – 35.9 WAR
9. Yu Darvish – Foreign RHP – 33.6 WAR
10. Sonny Gray – College RHP – Round 1, Overall #18 – 32.9 WARWhen you are drafting in the first round, you are trying to draft a star.
To get a star pitcher, you pretty much have to draft them in the first round.
I’m good with Arnold or Hernandez.
I’d love to have Holliday drop to us (longshot). Then there about a half dozen high school SS in the mix (yes, they can always switch positions).Hard to get a firm handle on this year’s draft.
Yeah, this year’s draft doesn’t have anyone clearly at the top.
I read an article that Holliday would have been the top person from this class in last year’s draft, and he probably would have been ranked #7.
I see the three HS shortstops (Holliday, Willits, Carlson), two college pitchers (Arnold, Kyson Witherspoon), one college bat (Kilen) and one HS arm (Hernandez) as being the best choices at #5.
I don’t mind Arquette at #5, but I’d rather have Alex Lodise in the second round, if he lasts that long.
When you are drafting in the first round, you are trying to draft a star.
To get a star pitcher, you pretty much have to draft them in the first round.
I don’t think career WAR is a great measure in this case due to how much the game has changed in the past 5 years. There are no pitchers that will drafted in this class that will throw as many innings as Kershaw, Verlander, or Scherzer and thus have a chance to accumulate the value they did.
Look at the WAR leaderboards for 24 and no pitcher even cracks the top 10 due to the cut down on SP innings. Similar trends of maybe only 1 pitcher being in the top 10 the last few years. Injury rates are also so much higher and you are most likely looking at 1 year of the typical pitchers team controllable years being missed due to injury.
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