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Cardinals27
Mike Clevinger would be a great addition.
Clevinger would be a solid addition as the second or third best outside option. He’s really turned in a solid season this year. Ryu would be another good addition as long as they get more than just these type of starters.
Just to re-iterate, I watched Clevinger last night in between the Cardinals game. He was looking great for the White Sox. Nearly had the shutout too. His stuff is electric.
The issue is getting more complicated with the success that some of the in-house guys have had recently.
I disagree about supposed complications. The in-house guys have minor league options so they can provide much-needed depth next season that the team didn’t have in 2023. You seem to keep trying to let the Cardinals off the hook from their plans to add three starters. Others of us will hold them to it no matter what happens in the few weeks to close this season. Paperwork depth based on quantity over proven quality isn’t enough. Please, no more laundry lists of names of guys with “potential”. We all know who they are – and they are not enough.
If and when the day ever comes that the Cardinals actually have too much quality MLB pitching, then we can discuss what to do about the “complications”. Until then, they need to keep building strength and not be content with what they have. Being content sunk them in 2023. They are a last-place team. Complacency cannot be accepted.
bccran
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The issue is getting more complicated with the success that some of the in-house guys have had recently.What success? Hudson now has a 5.12/5.13 ERA/FIP, Rom has a 5.96/5.68, Thompson has a 4.34/3.69, and Liberatore is at 5.37/4.19. Those are not good numbers. Maybe Thompson, but he rarely goes deep in a game.
I’m not counting on anything from any of them and neither should Mozeliak.
Honestly, I’d put Mikolas and Matz in there as well. Neither of them have improved my outlook for 2024 over the last two months.
I think we need to get a solid SP1/SP2. Then we get some under-the-radar FA guy like Ryu or Clevinger, or trade for Quintana.
Then trade for a young starter (Bieber, Miami guys, White Sox guys) using our surplus (Edman, Herrera, Carlson).
And try to pry an underwater contract guy (Freeland is my top choice). AND get an extreme injury guy like Severino, Montas, or Mahle.
If you get a:
Yamamoto/Snell/Nola ($25M)
Ryu/Clev/Quin ($10M)
Trade (Likely Even) – Cabrera/Garrett/Perez/Bieber/Etc
Underwater – Freeland ($15M) Get money back?
Injured – Severino/Montas ($5M)Cost of $50M-ish but you’d look very competitive with a one year turnaround.
Rom has a 5.96 ERA at the major league level and a 4.82 ERA at AAA this year.
While Kloffenstein has a good ERA at AAA (2.45), it is only in 33 innings. He also has a 30K/20BB ratio and 1.30 WHIP that are not good.
Roby has a 4.63 ERA in AA this year, and should not factor into 2024 at all, or at least not until the latter part of next year.
5 new starters –
Roby
Kloffenstein
Robberse
Showalter
RomIn just about that order as far as their ceilings?
LA –
Here’s the first full season as a starter for the guy who registered his 200th win yesterday.
Age – 25
Starts – 32
ERA – 3.70
WHIP – 1.396
IP – 202
Hits – 212
Ks – 136
W – 70Roby – turned 22 yesterday
Kloffenstein – Just turned 23 in August
Robberse – 21. Turns 22 next month
Showalter – 19 years old
Rom – 23 years oldNone of them have reached their peak yet. Not even close.
bccran, if you were named PBO on October 2 and Bill DeWitt told you that you can make whatever moves you want as long as the payroll stays under $200M and you must win the division next year or you get fired, would you still roll with the internal pitchers only?
Anybody that thinks we are going to trade for a #1 starter needs to have their head examined. If we are lucky we might give up something and get a #2 but that’s about it.
In general people are too optimistic about the pitching that Mo will add this winter. We need to remember that the objective remains as it has been, which is to be “competitive”. That seems to mean getting a WC slot, or be in the race for one until the end.
The lack of post season success has been remarked upon by media and people like us, but the FO/ownership has not said its a problem and that it will be addressed. Nobody has said the objective now is to construct a rotation that can go deep into post season, and that is not going to happen.
@bccran – none of them should even be considered as part of the rotation in 2024.
Rom was put in the rotation because we have no one else ready.
Kloffenstein looks promising, but I would think the earliest he would contribute to the major league rotation is July (barring injury).
Rom, Robbersse & Kloffenstein should all start next year in AAA.
Roby’s ETA is 2025.
Showalter’s ETA is 2026.
@blingboy – I think everybody is just hoping that the Cardinals have woken up, and realize that a bunch of #5 starters is not going to cut it.
We currently have two #5’s in the rotation for next year – Mikolas and Matz.
They should be aiming for at least three #2’s.
Pads, I like your list of targets. I would stay away from the underwater or injured ones unless you can’t get 1 from each of the previous 3 categories. Another source of possible trade acquisitions is from the Mariners starting pitching.
If the Cardinals are going to rely on any of Rom, Roby, Robberse, Kloffenstein, Showalter, McGreevey or Graceffo for the starting pitching in 2024, they might as well tell everyone that they are looking to be competitive in 2025. 2024 would be a rebuilding year at that point.
LA, I would consider Mikolas a borderline #3/#4, but I would want to acquire 3 starting pitchers better than him.
Hudson, Matz, Woodford, Romero, Helsley and Rom could be a start for a bullpen. Although, Hudson or Matz may be needed in the starting rotation.
Forsch, Mikolas has a 4.84 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and only 118 K’s in 182 innings. He is averaging 5.69 innings per start. That is a #5 pitcher to me.
In 2022, the league average ERA was 3.96
Yamamoto is the big prize. Doubt we spend the money, though.
Signing Clevinger, and trading for Musgrove would be my top pick, unless the Cards decide to trade Arenado for Dodgers top pitching prospects.
I would pass on Nola, he’s logged a lot of innings, and I would fear it would be yet another past their prime signing that we do so well.
And I keep forgetting about Montgomery returning. That would be very good, but does he want to come back here?
Let’s trade owners with the Mets. WDWJr can take over for the Mets, and Steve Cohen can take over for the Cardinals. One thing for sure…… Cohen will spend plenty of $$$, and spending money wins championships. Right? Wait. Let me think about that.
I’m thinking that Bieber is our best chance for anything like a No. 1, and I’m not sure that he really is a No.1.
I don’t think they should go after Snell, especially if there’s a Qualifying Offer attached to him. He’s having an outstanding year. But it’s his walk year, and he’s going to want big money for 5-6 years. I’d be willing to bet that his ERA and IP revert back to what he was doing in the 4 prior years to 2023.
IMO, Nola gives up too many HR9, and it shows in his W-L record. He’ll probably have a Qualifying Offer attached to him, also. I think the Cardinals should pass on Nola.
Jose Urias might be the best free agent pitcher available. But as Derrick Goold once opined ‘DeWitt is allergic to free agent auctions’. So, rule that out. Besides, like Ohtani, Urias is not in the aisle that the cardinals shop in.
Logan Gilbert from the Mariners is still a possibility.
I agree with Rat. We’re not going to trade for a No. 1 starter.
I have a feeling that Lucas Giolito who was recently waived by the Angels, and claimed by the Guardians, will end up in St. Louis. And if that happens, then that’s one of the promised pitchers. Bieber or Gilbert could be another one. And then, all that MO would really need to do is find a serviceable reliever, and the Cardinals’ offseason is over, mission complete.
LACF said:
Forsch, Mikolas has a 4.84 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and only 118 K’s in 182 innings. He is averaging 5.69 innings per start. That is a #5 pitcher to me.
In 2022, the league average ERA was 3.96
Curious why a player in 2023 is being compared to MLB in 2022? The relevant comparison point for 2023 in the NL is 4.66. (FWIW, the NL ERA last year was 4.36, not 3.96. The latter is AL+NL.)
So this season, Mikolas is 0.18 earned runs per nine above the NL average. Feels better than a #5 to me. (But the 2022 Mikolas is preferred…)
The league ERA for SP for 2023 is 4.46. In 2022, Mikolas had a 3.29 ERA. Looking at FIP, he was at 3.87 in 2022 and 4.33 in 2023. He has consistently pitched slightly better than league average. That’s why I say he is a borderline #3/#4.
Miles has gone 6 IP or more in 18 of his 32 GS. He’s at 182.1 IP and I’m starting to view him as an innings eater.
He’d slot well as a SP4 with a 4.33 FIP (mlb avg is 4.34) and his BB% is half of mlb avg. He still competes in the zone.
His H/9 has risen considerably but his HR/9 is as stable as can be. He’s +0.010 above mlb avg BAbip. Ballpark.
Miles has posted a 1.322 WHIP this season, mlb avg 1.315
It feels like he didn’t get hammered this season, but instead got dinked and dunked badly. Just seems like a lot of crap fell in.As an All-star last season, maybe this is an age related start to his decline years. Or it could be just a “down” season.
SP3/4
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