- This topic has 851 replies, 46 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I believe both were 1st round draft picks and highly regarded. Another highly regarded guy was Woodford.
Was the starter in the PCL vs. IL All Star Game.I believe you’re right and I was just having a little bit of fun, but these draft selections that come along who are termed as highly regarded are, in my view, not at all unlike a lottery ticket. I’d have to say that the majority of the players that are selected early in the draft have either run of the mill careers or turn out to be discards. And many players who no one ever heard of go on the have great Big League careers. I’ve learned from practical experience to disregard the promos and simply watch a player perform at the Big League level for at least a couple of seasons prior forming an opinion on what sort of results he’ll put up on the board at that level of play.
Trade for Dylan Cease and Kyle Freeland. Sign free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Roster clutter will be cleared (maybe they can even dump Contreras along the way) and payroll doesn’t necessarily need to increase much.
Cease
Mikolas
Yamamoto
Freeland
Matz, Hudson, Liberatore, et. al.And they would all be under team control through 2025 as well, meaning none of the current AA and AAA arms would need to be rushed. But obviously none of this matters unless and until Ollie Marmol and Dusty Blake are replaced by experienced grownup MLB thinkers.
Guys traded away would be Gorman, Carlson, Willson, Burleson, Knizner, Victor Scott II, either Bernal or Crooks, and one or two from among the AA/AAA starting pitchers. That’s more than enough trade ammo to get Cease + Freeland. (Of course, over the winter the Cards also had more than enough trade ammo for Sean Murphy but the A’s were idiots and opted for a largely useless ballplayer named Esteury Ruiz as the centerpiece of the deal.)
That still leaves this Opening Day batting order:
Nootbaar CF
Donovan DH
Goldy 1B
Arenado 3B
O’Neill LF
Walker RF
Herrera C
Edman 2B
Winn SSOutfield defense is blah but the infield glovework should be the envy of MLB. Overall, assuming a decent bench & bullpen, I think the team would be average-or-better at all four aspects: hitting, pitching, defense, and baserunning.
Really like Freeland. When healthy he is a solid mid-rotation starter. Gorman would be a great Coors Field player, but I hate to deal him, and would not for Freeland straight up.
Cease is a good one to go after, but might cost Gorman. If we could somehow get him for a combos of Edman and Carlson, that would be preferable in my opinion.
Doubt we can move Contreras without taking on a lot of the financial commitment. But maybe that is what we need to do. Put a better team around him though and I think he would be just fine. Still you got good catching in Knizner and Herrera.
Management sure has bungled things over the last year. One bad decision after another, starting with naming Olllie Marmol manager. Got through the first year of that just fine, until game one of the post season when he posted that silly batting order with Pujols hitting second.
“Bob – Excellent post, except I don’t think you want to trade Gorman.”
I’d prefer to keep Nolan, cranny, but I don’t think there’s a way to get Dylan Cease without trading him — unless the Cards would part with either Nootbaar, Walker, or multiple elite pitching prospects. The latter is a fairly ridiculous notion of course, given the club’s recent history of pitching mediocrity, and the enormous embarrassment of the Alcantara/Gallen trade debacle.
Here are some player valuations at the Baseball Trade Values website:
Noot tops the Cards at 69 million, then Walker 61 and Gorman 40. Moving down the list and looking only at the more tradeable names, there’s Donovan 16, Edman and Carlson 15, Burleson 13, Graceffo & Roby 10, O’Neill & Pallante 8, and Willson Contreras minus 26 million.
Cease is valued at 46 million, while Freeland’s contract is surprisingly considered underwater at minus 19 million. Therefore Gorman + Carlson or Burleson + Graceffo or Roby + Bernal or Crooks (both around 3 mil value) would be roughly 65-70 million at BTV (about 50% above Cease’s value) and most importantly it would very likely be the strongest offer the Sox would get for two cheap seasons of Cease.
And then Carlson or Burleson, plus Contreras, Victor Scott 2, and a sweetener like Pallante, would be value-neutral, which would theoretically be enough for Freeland and then some. But in this case, I’m pretty sure Freeland’s real world value is NOT underwater as the BTV site claims.
“Really like Freeland. When healthy he is a solid mid-rotation starter. Gorman would be a great Coors Field player, but I hate to deal him, and would not for Freeland straight up.”
Yeah, I feel the same, Mike; and Gorman shouldn’t be remotely necessary for Freeland. Kyle’s contract is fair but not exactly cheap at $64MM for the next four years. It’s a real commitment that many teams would not want to make.
——————————————-
The thing about Gorman is, the club has few truly high-end trade chips. Anyone who wants to hold on to Gorman must decide to either trade Nootbaar or Walker. Or to put it another way, two months ago Donovan and Gorman were valued almost identically at the BTV website, between 36 and 37 million apiece. Now Brendan is less than half of that.
Thus, trading Gorman right now makes perfect sense to me. Because his value is high but unlikely to go much higher. He whiffs so much that his batting average could collapse at any time, and there’s always the injury bug — especially for a guy who seems to have semi-chronic back troubles.
The Birds have Winn, Edman, and Donovan for the middle infield, and Tom “Cycle” Saggese certainly looks like a future 3-4 WAR player. But as we all know, they need pitching badly. So a swap makes sense.
Gorman will never hit .280 or win a Gold Glove or steal 25 bases. His power is intoxicating but it creates a bit of an illusion in my opinion, makes him appear more valuable than he truly is or ever will be. (And if he does have a bad back to even the slightest degree, his defense/baserunning will get worse before they get better.)
I would trade Walker before I trade Gorman for the simple fact the Cardinals will never commit to using Walker solely as a DH, and much like Jose Martinez and Juan Yepez, he should never play the field.
But, yes, Gorman’s back issues are troubling.
I wonder what top free agent starters will get qualifying offers this offseason? I believe Nola will, but not sure if Snell has already received one?
Gorman will never hit .280 or win a Gold Glove or steal 25 bases. His power is intoxicating but it creates a bit of an illusion in my opinion, makes him appear more valuable than he truly is or ever will be.
Well yes. They will say he’s only 23. He only has 700 PAs, ec. All true and any conclusions about the player he will be in the future cannot be written in ink just yet. But we can draw conclusions about what seems likely based upon what we have observed.
The power is intoxicating and colors the rest of what there is to see. A homer or so a week and very little in between. Very much the hitter DeJong was for a good while until he sunk even more. That’s not to say he won’t get hot. He will just as he has. And he will get cold, as he has. I would trade him this winter, because the more he is seen, the softer the market will become. His peak trade value is already in the past as the hype focuses into reality.
Gorman probably brings you the best pitcher back b/c of his power….I would think he will be a 30 HR guy at some point if he hits 240 that is pretty valuable in todays game.
They would be crazy to trade Walker…guy has played the OF for just over a year and is still very young, not to mention he makes very little.
They have a lot to address for this winter….Starting Pitching, Bullpen, Catcher, Offense, coaching and so on.
bb said:
Very much the hitter DeJong was for a good while until he sunk even more.
His peak trade value is already in the past as the hype focuses into reality.
Which reality is that? My reality uses data.
DeJong year 1: OPS+ 121
DeJong year 2: OPS+ 102
DeJong years 3+: down from thereGorman year 1: OPS+ 105
Gorman year 2: OPS+ 116There is no similarity in their career trends. There is no indication Gorman has peaked. We get that you want him traded, but maybe you should leave it at that.
I don’t expect a non-contender to claim Clevinger now, us included.
He should do better than 1/12mil in 2024, if he declines his mutual option and becomes a FA this winter.
I would not understand why we wouldn’t pick up Giolito or Clevinger. Let’s take a flyer on one them. It could be one less starter needed next year.
All of these waived players are going to be free agents this fall. Picking them up now would not tie them to their new team for next year. (“Joint” options are pretty much worthless.) As jj said, non-contenders are not going to add these players now.
To make it more specific to St. Louis, the Cardinals are not going to take on their September salaries just to hope they “fall in love” with St. Louis and “take a home town discount” for 2024 and beyond. There is nothing happening with the 2023 team that would incent someone to stay.
Maybe I am misunderstanding the term mutual option? I assumed that both player and team each had a choice.
Secondly, if you want to play “dirty pool”, you could keep a contending team from adding them, especially a division team.
I assumed that both player and team each had a choice.
Both do…and…both must exercise the option for it to happen.
It means both have to agree. One wanting it isn’t enough. Only very rarely are mutual options exercised. The reason that if the team wants it, the terms are favorable for them. If the player wants it, the terms are favorable for him. It is unusual for both sides to see the terms of the option in their favor.
As far as dirty pool goes, do you think DeWitt would spend a million or two to keep a few players away from the Brewers for one month?
The claiming team assumes the entire remaining contract amount (and the former team is off the hook financially).
I think some who want 3 #2 starters know they won’t do it and just want something to complain about next season. I mean you really think they’ll commit 4-5 year deals at over 20+ million per year to that tier of starters? Lol
Clevenger has some weird contract where he’s owed a bunch of money on the back end this year. He does have a mutual option with any team that gets him but we all know most if not all of these deals usually never get agreed to.
I wouldn’t mind Clevenger in FA deal but the holier than thou will point to his off the field allegations that the league decided to not act on. I could see our ownership dropping the ball on that one because they’re a bunch of dip spits.
Be ready folks. Brad Keller, Seth Lugo, Tommy Mahle and maybe a Lorenzen. That is the aisle we’re shopping in this holiday season. We’re not getting 3 starters Via FA either. We also need some pen help.
Prepare yourselves for a Frankie Montas signing on a 1 year low base + incentives contract. You heard it here first!
CC, I think you are on to something. Bum shoulder guys-r-us. And you never know, he was good in 2021.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.