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He has bested 130 innings twice in seven years. That is not a good track record for someone who will require a huge investment.
Which is fine, but they were using 124.
Also you’re being disingenuous including the covid year and/or his half-season rookie year.
2 years over 130 in 6 years…that still makes the point y’all are shooting for.
Actually, the Cardinals need 4 starters. Steven Matz can’t be counted on to produce anything
Harsh reality.
MLB Trade rumors predictions that mention the Cardinals.
5. Aaron Nola. Six years, $150MM
Tim: Cardinals/ Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Cardinals
19. Seth Lugo. Three years, $42MM
Tim: Diamondbacks / Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Reds
27. Robert Stephenson. Four years, $36MM
Tim: Cardinals / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Orioles
32. Nick Martinez. Two years, $25MM
Tim: Cardinals / Anthony: Padres / Darragh: Blue Jays
43. Yuki Matsui. Two years, $16MM
Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Cardinals
44. Frankie Montas. One year, $15MM
Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Nationals / Darragh: Cardinals
46. Hector Neris. Two years, $15MM
Tim: Reds / Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Twins
That doesn’t mean the team is going to spend recklessly, however, as Mozeliak said they plan to be “prudent” with their expenditures. More specifically, he explained that the Cardinals will likely operate with a similar payroll next season as they planned to run this past year before selling off several veterans at the trade deadline. That means they have about $44MM to work with this winter (per Denton), although one would think they’d be willing to go slightly above that number for the right player.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/john-mozeliak-on-offseason-spending-molina-bloom.html
Cross Snell, Nola, Gray, Montgomery & Yamamoto off your wish list.
The Cardinals are shopping in the Ryu/Clevinger/Lugo/Wacha/Lorenzen aisle.
I don’t really care who they sign or trade for as long as we win games. Sometimes it’s chemistry that wins. I can’t imagine the drama and atmosphere in that clubhouse last year. I have been against Gray, but maybe that’s the guy we should get. Clearly reliable veteran. Fill in from there. I wouldn’t bring anyone back from last year. It’s Mo’s legacy. Just because we drop a load of $ doesn’t buy wins. Ask Mets Pads Dodgers etc. The guy I’m wanting hasn’t even pitched a major league inning. Just give me a team I’m willing to lose sleep watching at night.(I get up at 4am.)
#STLCards POBO John Mozeliak on his club spending in free agency for pitching: "I think we have to be prudent on how we think through some of this. But, I definitely think the type of payroll we were going to have last year (before trades) will look very similar this year."
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) November 6, 2023
We just saw 94 losses (2022), win the W.S. the next season. The TEX 94 losses roster ranked 15th in opening day payroll, and then we assumed the 15th rank in 2023, with 91 losses.
Their 2023 W.S. roster ranked 9th by opening day 26man, and then they added Monty, Scherzer, Stratton, Chapman, etc., after opening day.
“Very similar” budget? Ok, I’ll expect similar results. Evidently Bill has spoken. Payroll is stagnant.
I find this quote very concerning. Mo is already backpedaling.
When asked if he still wants to add three starting pitchers via trades or free agent signings, #STLCards POBO John Mozeliak said this: "I think we definitely need to try to find two and then maybe we find someone that can maybe split roles or something. …
(more 1/3)
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) November 6, 2023
We’ll probably see many similarities to last year. Not surprised at “prudent” at all. Pay attention, BillyMo gives you so many clues. As always, believe what they do and take what is hinted at by their words with a grain of salt.
More Mozeliak: "You know, it'd be great if one of our younger pitchers could actually step in and pitch meaningful innings, too, throughout the year. So, when you think about guys like (Michael) McGreevy, (Gordon) Graceffo and (Zack) Thompson …"
(more, 2/3)
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) November 6, 2023
More Mozeliak: "Where will they be (physically and mentally) next year? What have they learned to help them prepare for next year? Liberatore, I thought out of the bullpen he was really good, but I'm sure his desire is going to want to come in and start.”
(end, 3/3)
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) November 6, 2023
gscottar, that’s my exact feeling when it comes to Mo. It sure sounds like he’s preparing us for a lesser bump in payroll, with only two starters added rather than the three he mentioned before.
Giolito/Clevinger/Mikolas/Matz/prospect doesn’t inspire much confidence that they’re actually going to make a go at it. That’s an 80-83 win rotation at best.
I have a sinking feeling that our 2024 rotation is going to be
Gray
Mikolas
Matz
Liberatore
Hudson/ThompsonWe must never underestimate the cheapness of Cardinals ownership. They just need enough of a team to keep revenue from falling off.
25, are you gunshy of Monty’s K rate on a 4-6 yr contract?
I’m not. I like Monty as an addition, because I think he’s as likely as not to actually provide neutral value on the investment. Laying down $120M or more on a pitcher, you want to be sure you’re gonna get 12 WAR or more back from him. I would see Nola and Monty as being the two guys most likely to give you around market value.
A guy like Snell looks like he’d be a problem health wise and might get up to $180M+. You’ve got to get 18 WAR back. Yamamoto will need to bring back 25+ WAR over 7 seasons (including the posting fee). If you think that’s easy, Waino from ages 25-31 provided exactly 25 WAR, with 4 top 3 Cy Young finishes. That’s elite ace level stuff to expect to get a neutral return on your cash. That said, I’d still rather have him than almost anyone else on the free agent market (and the most of the guys we have any chance at all at).
If I had to rank the $$ arms in order that I’d like most based on value and being realistic (cause Ohtani isn’t and Kershaw is going nowhere), I’d go: Yamamoto, Nola, Monty, Imanaga, Stroman, Gray, Giolito, Manaea, Montas, Severino, Rodriguez, Wacha, Snell, everyone else
For trades, I’d say that Bieber is very intriguing if we could get him for one of our OFers. I like Seattle and Miami’s young arms and I do think we match up with them on trades. Unfortunately, our trade value helium has been a bit deflated with the injury to Donovan, Carlson scuffling, Edman’s plateau, none of the young arms standing out, and a general need to keep guys like Gorman, Noot, O’Neill, Herrera due to depth and lineup concerns.
Bottom line, if I had to rank my top 5 favorite overall targets:
1. Yamamoto
2. Logan Gilbert
3. Nola
4. Bieber
5. MontyThey have to blow the budget on SP1 and SP2 to get the rotation right, or the rebuild is a joke.
Trade Contreras $ for a Mikolas type (AAV), to add IP at the back, to support Matz / Thompson at SP5. Correct the budget misappropriation at catcher, from last winter.
Stagnating the budget needs to re-claim every $ posible, O’Neill / Hudson / Woodford, goodbye. Hello 10mil.
The pen will be a work in progress, but the rotation has to be rebuilt.
I would be very surprised to see them trade Contreras or non-tender O’Neill. Hudson and Woodford are a possiblility but I wouldn’t count on that either.
Any chance the FO does anything meaningful during the GM meetings? Or will only groundwork be laid for the future?
I’d really like to see a much more aggressive attack of signing our top targets. Sort of similar to Cecil signing, but with much, much better production for the $$$.
Mo wasn’t very prudent in saying the word “prudent”. 2024 ticket sales department just got a lot quieter. I can’t help but thinking that the rotation will include 2 of our in-house youngsters. This won’t be discouraging as long as they produce up to MLB level. Last season we had Woodford-Hudson-Liberatore as the potential starters to fill #5. This year we’ll need a #4 a #5 and a #6 and maybe #7 from the 2024 of potentials Heck, Mo has to get lucky one of these seasons.
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