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Mud that’s a fair price but I think he goes for a lot more. So we have to overpay. Is that wise? Hey, I’m just playing the game here. This one year rebuild isn’t my first choice. It’s what the fo says they’re going to do. And we all know what that’s about. Ticket sales. But I understand it, so I’m going to support the team like a good soldier. Hope it works.
mudville
Here’s an interesting read on what it should take to sign Yamamoto:Thanks for sharing. That just seems low to me. I think he will, without a doubt, pass up Tanaka. (Tanaka signed for 7yr/$155M) The author completely ignores inflation since 2014. I bet the kicker will be the 8th year. I’d say 8yr/$180 plus the $20M posting fee.
gscottar
Correct, I was referring to the overall contract even if the AAV is similar. I would much prefer Monty over Gray but Monty’s bidding might be more intense. We shall seeGotcha. I have really only been looking thru the lens of next years’ payroll.
Thanks for sharing. That just seems low to me. I think he will, without a doubt, pass up Tanaka. (Tanaka signed for 7yr/$155M) The author completely ignores inflation since 2014. I bet the kicker will be the 8th year. I’d say 8yr/$180 plus the $20M posting fee.
Agreed that Yamamoto will get more than Tanaka in AAV, for sure. It makes me wonder if a team could get an edge with a shorter term but higher AAV deal. Go 3 years and $85M? Less risky for the team, cheaper on the posting fee and the player hits free agency again and a chance at a huge contract at 28.
This is an excerpt from a Forbes article.
The Upcoming Bidding War
MLB’s rules for international free agents are the reason why Yamamoto waited until this offseason to emigrate. He turned 25 on August 17, which means he is no longer subjected to MLB’s international amateur bonus rules. Had he jumped to MLB before before his 25th birthday, these rules would have cost him hundreds of millions of dollars.MLB teams have a base bonus pool ranging from $4.75-5.75 million with which they must sign all of their international amateur free agents. Clubs can trade for additional bonus pool allotments, but the most any franchise can stockpile is approximately $10.1 million. They are not permitted to exceed their bonus pool to sign players, most of whom are teenage prospects from Central and South America. These rules limited Shohei Ohtani to a $2.3 million bonus when he first signed with the Los Angeles Angels in December, 2017 at age 22 despite having value that was more than 100 times greater.
In Japan, players don’t reach free agency until they’ve played ten seasons. Yamamoto has spent seven years in NPB since Orix drafted him in 2017, which means he is not a true free agent, but he expects to be posted by the Buffaloes. As per MLB.com, “The release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of next $25 million plus 15 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million.”
The release fee will not be a significant hindrance for a player of Yamamoto’s caliber. The total value of his contract remains to be seen, but it could easily top $200 million. It’s rare for a pitcher so talented and so young to hit the open market, so expect several MLB clubs to vie for his services. His free agency will be one of the major stories of the baseball offseason.
Go 3 years and $85M? Less risky for the team
Could be. I have been thinking about that, but in a different way. Risk comes in different forms and I’d be wary of injury. The motion and release on this guy’s curve is different, to say the least. If you know a guy is elite, one of the main risks of the longer-term contracts is aging will take a toll on performance. Yamamoto is young enough so that shouldn’t be a problem if he’s really elite, and one bad or injured year over a long term deal isn’t so bad.
However, have a UCL repair on a short deal and it really stings. When you spread that damage across 3 years, it piles up deep. So that’s a different type of risk. At least Ohtani can hit to mitigate his injury.
Maybe the biomechanics of Yamamoto’s curve motion isn’t a problem, but when I see it I wonder.
https://nypost.com/2023/11/02/sports/breaking-down-top-free-agent-pitchers-projected-contracts/
I think we’ll end up in the Clevinger, Giolito, Lugo, Grey territory For starters.
Those contracts seem a bit steep to me. A lot of guys will be getting huge AAVs, by their measure. It’s difficult to see someone like Nola getting $35M per year, like the one expert thinks, for example.
I don’t know about all that but bowtie might have to wait out the market before doing his shopping. We know he likes to get most of his shopping done before Christmas. It might take longer this time around.
Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of Tigers deal. Had $49M, 3 years to go.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 4, 2023
Speaking of Padres starters who have opted out, I have Seth Lugo on my list of “innings depth” guys Mo would probably be looking at. He had something like 12 or 13 quality starts and will be 34 and there is no real pedigree, which should moderate contract expectations, so it might a appealing to Mo. I admit I don’t know much about him though.
I agree BB, Lugo checks the right boxes for this FO. When you need 6 or 7 arms…… might as well get started.
The 3 starters that I hope the Cardinals pursue are:
1. Sonny Grey
2. Clarke Schmidt
3. Lucas GiolitoNot a bad list GC. I think my top 3 would be:
1. Yamamoto
2. Bieber or Monty
3. SchmidtI like Nola and Gray but they would cost us a draft pick. I would stay far away from Snell. He is going to get a huge contract to sit on the IL.
Another option would be to shop with the Padres. Lugo and Wacha are now free agents and they might even trade Darvish if they are desperate to shed payroll.
I see that Stroman is also a free agent now.
My top 3 would be:
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell – Don’t overpay for his 24 GS and 124 IP per year..
Liberatore, Graceffo, McGreevy, Roby, Robberse,
Kloffenstein should be able to pick up the slack
each time that Snell taps out.
3. Bieber (I’d take Glasnow also, but only if the Rays take
back $15M-$20M of his $25M contract for 2025.)Actually, the Cardinals need 4 starters. Steven Matz can’t be counted on to produce anything. Mikolas is the only legitimate starting pitcher we’ve got, unless Hudson is still considered viable. This Matz signing reminds me of the Brett Cecil signing in that both were toxic.
I am pretty sure somebody else will make Yamamoto an offer he won’t refuse. Somebody will overpay Snell’s 124 IP, and somebody will not be worried about what Bieber does in 2025.
A lot of teams will be lining up pitching, and there is no reason to think the Cardinals will be a favored destination. I think Mo can get some guys who are better than what we’ve got, starters and relievers, but there is no reason to expect that BillMo will be shopping top shelf. Its a lot of unfounded wishful thinking.
The Cards will be fine if they line up some starters who can stay healthy and rack up quality starts. And at least one high leverage guy in the pen.
Where is the 124 inning pitched coming from on Snell?
It’s a little disingenuous to include 2020 into his average innings pitched, if that’s what you are doing.
Career – 143 per year. Last three years – 145, but 2 of 6 were the best in the league. What worries me about him is the career high in BB/9, not the innings.
He’s a guy that will be a 2-time Cy Young winner sitting in free agency. A career not unlike that of Chris Carpenter, minus the major 2003 injury.
Where is the 124 inning pitched coming from on Snell?
He’s done better than that twice. Kind of like Wacha, your #6 will likely be getting 8 or 10 of the starts.
He’s bested 124 innings 5 times out of 6. Also he’s a product of Tampa Bay and they restrict innings on young pitchers. I understand the worry, but just say 130 innings if you want to worry about his durability.
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