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Cardinals 27:
There is zero chance the FO will do anything meaningful between now and spring training so adjust your expectations accordingly.
Any chance the FO does anything meaningful during the GM meetings? Or will only groundwork be laid for the future?
Any announced acquisitions during the GM meetings are unlikely. The Winter Meetings in December will be more likely but even that event is usually just talking heads on MLB Network discussing all of the potential things that could happen and Scott Boras holding court over in the corner of the lobby. Some of these free agents may want to drag things out for awhile. The timing of potential trades are even more difficult to predict.
I like the Montas idea for a #5 on a one year highly incentivize deal. If he can give them 20+ starts that would be huge. As long as he’s the “third” addition that would be great.
I averaged out the predicted terms for all the FA starters from the Athletic, Heyman, and MLBTR, here’s where they landed:
- Name Yrs Total AAV
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 8 209.3 26.2
Blake Snell 6 178.3 29.7
Aaron Nola 6 166.0 27.7
Jordan Montgomery 6 125.0 22.1
Eduardo Rodriguez 5 84.0 18.0
Sonny Gray 3 78.0 23.4
Shota Imanaga 5 68.5 15.2
Lucas Giolito 3 53.0 17.7
Marcus Stroman 2 44.0 22.0
Jack Flaherty 3 43.3 14.4
Michael Wacha 3 34.0 12.8
Seth Lugo 2 32.0 13.7
Kenta Maeda 2 23.0 15.3
Nick Martinez 2 25.0 12.5
Mike Clevinger 2 24.0 12.0
Sean Manaea 2 22.0 11.0
Michael Lorenzen 2 21.0 12.6
Tyler Mahle 2 20.0 10.0
Luis Severino 1 14.0 14.0
Frankie Montas 1 14.0 14.0
Hyun Jin Ryu 1 11.5 11.5
Kyle Gibson 1 11.0 11.0
James Paxton 1 11.0 11.0
Lance Lynn 1 10.0 10.0Sorry for the formatting. Also the AAV are based on average years so not exact to the integer listed for years.
Some of the ones I consider ‘steals’ would be Imanaga and Giolito. Both with high-risk factors. Clevinger has been my go-to also, since before the off-season. He was better as the season progressed as well, unlike Giolito and Flaherty. Pairing him with a SO-heavy guy like Giolito or Imanaga would be a great move.
Yamamoto, Gray, Flaherty, and Lugo seem over-priced.
Ryu might be a stealthy move, but I don’t see them making that move.
I could see Giolito, Wacha, Lugo. All shorter term contracts. Best case Gray, Giolito and one other. I don’t think we will see any 5+ year contracts in the rotation.
Ryu is going to be the best bargain it would seem. He pitched well coming off TJ surgery, and might take fewer years and less money.A Beiber trade involving O’Neil would add very few dollars, also. The third would be a swing man like Lugo to battle for the fifth spot with Hudson, Liberatore, Thompson. et all. This would leave enough for Matsui and Stephenson.
Ryu is going to be the best bargain it would seem. He pitched well coming off TJ surgery, and might take fewer years and less money.A Beiber trade involving O’Neil would add very few dollars, also. The third would be a swing man like Lugo to battle for the fifth spot with Hudson, Liberatore, Thompson. et all. This would leave enough for Matsui and Stephenson.
Lowering expectations…
https://twitter.com/Red_Dog_Cards/status/1722607483888525764
No doubt the season ticket orders and renewals aren’t coming in like they have in the past, and no doubt, the agents are still living in a world where figures like $30M for 7 years is reasonable and fair. Fortunately for the players and agents, there are useful idiots like Cohen around to help them out.
To become proficient at Cardinals Math, pay attention to what Mo does. Disregard what he says. This is not new.
Kyle Gibson is taking over Big League Impact for Wainright. I wonder if those offices are physically in St.Louis? He could do it from anywhere, but I wonder if this is why MO was so boldly claiming three starters. Perhaps he knew he already had one.
I just read something that says the Redbirds just signed free agent pitcher Madison Bumgarner.
That can’t be right, now, can it? Surely it’s a joke.
The key to Mo’s off season remarks is the one word he used a few days ago…prudent. That could be a signal that it will be El Cheapos again this off-season. Watch what he says and if he keeps using prudent then they’ll get Seth Lugo and Rich Hill and declare the off-season over and another triumph.
Saw on MLBTR:
“Nightengale’s report goes on to suggest that Nola’s camp is seeking a seven-year, $210MM deal while the Phillies have countered with a six-year, $150MM offer at this point.”
I think we can quit fantasizing about Nola. And probably not just him, as we get an idea what the top shelf is selling for this winter. BillMo’s alligator arms won’t reach up there.
Yeah, I think so too. I do agree that you need a couple top end starters to advance in post season, but there is a lot to be said for getting them as the deadline approaches rather than over the winter. In 2022, we picked up Q and Montgomery which was adequate IMO. We got smoked in the WC for other reasons.
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