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Yesavage recently suffered from a partially collapsed lung. I believe that’s going to cause him to fall in the first round.
Hagen Smith is pitching in the regional tonight. Unfortunately I don’t think the SEC pitcher of the year will still be available when the Cards choose 7th.
Burns just gave up a 3 run homer on a hanging slider…East Carolina leads 4-1 after 5
In this game he started hanging his slider in the 5th inning….he was lights out in the first 4 innings but threw a lot of pitches….he is 90 pitches through 5 innings
Yesavage threw 119 pitches in his last outing against Rice 2 weeks ago according to the announcers
He has thrown 93 pitches thru 6 innings today …. allowed 1 hit and 1 run
Burns fastball has hit 99 today
Yesavage fastball hits 92-93 on the gun in this game
Burns has way too much reliever risk. He has a violent throwing motion and still needs to develop a quality 3rd pitcher.
Yesavage throws 113 pitches in 7 1/3 allows 1 hit 1 run….had the partially collapsed lung in between this start and his last start….not sure that that will be a factor after this outing
The Cardinals needed pitching but Flores decided to take Davis. Meanwhile, a few picks after Davis the Braves took a college righty named Waldrop who has just been promoted to AAA. Meanwhile Davis can’t hit low A pitching.
Well Bling, right now the system needs hitters and pitchers…
But I agree, Flores or whoever is responsible for the final decisions in the draft is miserable at it.
We know Davis can play and can hit. Low A is not hugely advanced over Div. 1. Not so much that he wouldn’t have settled in by now. My guess is he’s living large on the signing bonus and not too focussed on his day job. At least that is an explanation for the reality we see that makes sense. The assumption would be that Flores doesn’t have real good advanced metrics on that. Intangibles can’t be objectively measured and accuratly quantified, so it cannot make for clean input, and dirty input means garbage in, garbage out, and we don’t want that. So what to do? That can be gotten around by claiming that the pesky intangible does not exist and therefore there is no problem. Momentum, psychology, the men not machines things. Don’t exist, is the best way to handle that in a world where everything has to be measurable so that it can be input.
Bling, isn’t the more reasonable explanation that Davis has a hole in his swing/approach that even Low A pitching has exploited? Davis was reported to have a great work ethic and love of the game. That was part of the reason I liked the pick. Sometimes things don’t work out though and you have to learn from it. In this case, swing and miss issues in college shouldn’t be overlooked is the lesson I took away.
Regarding Flores, this is a quote from him. You act like the Cards are a pure analytics org that is just a robot, but I have never seen anything from public entity state the Cards are an analytics org. The only thing you hear about the Cards and analytics is how they are so far behind on modern analytics of the top performing teams in the league.
During our evaluations, we learned of his tremendous work ethic and deep love of the game, giving our scouting department confidence that he will develop to become the best player possible.
I’m not saying Flores did a good job with the pick, but at least dont throw out unbiased accusations of someone’s work ethic with no evidence.
Albert, my statement was clearly labeled as a guess. The hole in the swing theory I dismiss, as it would have been noted and there has been time enough to address it. But I do accept that others can guess something else.
but I have never seen anything from public entity state the Cards are an analytics org. The only thing you hear about the Cards and analytics is how they are so far behind on modern analytics of the top performing teams in the league.
And what is funny about that is that the people who built the analytics departments for the Astros and the Orioles came from the Cardinals organization!!!
The operative fact is that the same people and the same system are still in place and are still running things. That being the case, which is more likely from this year’s draft, a hitter who can’t hit or a starter who’s in AAA in less than a year?
MLB Pipeline has Hagen Smith going to the Cards at #7… gscottar would be thrilled.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-june-6
ESPN has the Cards taking JJ Wetherholt, 2B/SS from WV
MLB Pipeline has Hagen Smith going to the Cards at #7… gscottar would be thrilled.
That would be our best case scenario in my opinion. I view him as the best pitcher in the draft. He swooned a bit in his last two starts so perhaps that is why has dropped to 7th instead of top 5.
That would be our best case scenario in my opinion. I view him as the best pitcher in the draft. He swooned a bit in his last two starts so perhaps that is why has dropped to 7th instead of top 5.
There is a lot of pressure on this draft…we haven’t picked this high in literally a generation, so they have to get this right. If the pitcher we get doesn’t become a #1 or #2 at worst starter, or the hitter isn’t a star position player, it will reflect even more poorly on Flores and the FO’s time at the helm.
Like I said, he would be a good get for the number 7 slot.
With the draft coming up I thought it would be well to check out Randy’s performance vs other top teams. Checked him out against the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Orioles and the Astros. Took a quick look at the Brewers and found that they would have been about the middle of the pack vs the above group.
Ranking – # 1 Picks Reaching Major Leagues. Number and Positive WAR according to Baseball Encyclopedia
Team No +WAR
Dodgers 6 – 26.7
Cardinals 5 – 14.5
Orioles 7 – 14.5
Phillies 4 – 10.7
Yankees 4 – 8.9
Braves 8 – 6.7
Astrol 4 – 0.0Ranking – Top 5 rounds
Orioles 18 – 40.7
Dodgers 16 – 38.6
Cardinals 13 – 35.6
Braves 18 – 22.5
Phillies 11 – 19.1
Yankees 14 – 15.0
Astros 16 – 14.8Ranking – 6th round or later
Cardinals 11 – 32.2
Dodgers 22 – 26.5
Yankees 20 – 21.8
Astros 21 – 18.8
Phillies 11 – 8.5
Braves 11 – 5.3
Orioles 8 – 3.1Total Positive WAR
Cardinals 24 – 67.8
Dodgers 38 – 65.1
Orioles 26 – 43.8
Yankees 34 – 36.8
Astros 37 – 33.6
Braves 29 – 27.8
Phillies 22 – 27.6Some observations, some pure speculation on my part.
1. Gorman is the only major positive contributor still with the team.
2. The high number of players reaching the major leagues by the Yankees and Dodgers could be a result of willingness to spend on more lower ranked players.
3. There probably teams with higher numbers. I did a study a couple of years ago and while the Cardinals were high I recall that the Blue Jays were higher at that point.
4. This is wild speculation. Hard to know what goes into draft decisions. Randy may have wanted a higher cieling player but the powers that be may not have been willing to meet the players over slot demand
5. The Orioles low number of players reaching the major leagues may be a result of them not willing to spend on the lower rounds because of the size of their pool for top choices. They got a lot of early picks.
6. Finally, it is aparent from the above numbers that many of the top teams are top teams not because of the draft but rather trades, free agents and international players. The Cardinals low performance on the field in recent times could well reflect a weakness in those catagories.Interesting research, Sooner. Thank you for sharing it. What years are covered, please?
There may also be a “pace to reach the majors” dimension to consider since the most recent 2-3 years are mostly not yet reflected (since they haven’ yet reached MLB). I bet in a few years, as their young stars fully take hold, the Orioles will rise even further and the Cards may drop in comparison (given no Cards pick since the great 2020 draft appears to be an impact player.)
Picking at #7, the Cardinals will be in a position to take one of the seven top tier collegiate players available.
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