June 23, 2020 at 9:16 pm #131313June 24, 2020 at 10:41 am #131372
For the Cards, “over” is 33-27 or better and “under” is 32-28 or worse.
20 of 30 MLB teams have above-.500 win odds.
MLB Win Totals (From Highest to Lowest)
Los Angeles Dodgers 38½
New York Yankees 38½
Houston Astros 35½
Minnesota Twins 34½
Atlanta Braves 33½
Oakland Athletics 33½
Tampa Bay Rays 33½
Washington Nationals 33½
Cleveland Indians 32½
New York Mets 32½
St. Louis Cardinals 32½
Arizona Diamondbacks 31½
Boston Red Sox 31½
Chicago Cubs 31½
Chicago White Sox 31½
Cincinnati Reds 31½
Los Angeles Angels 31½
Milwaukee Brewers 31½
Philadelphia Phillies 31½
San Diego Padres 31½
Texas Rangers 29½
Toronto Blue Jays 28½
Colorado Rockies 27½
Pittsburgh Pirates 25½
San Francisco Giants 25½
Seattle Mariners 25½
Kansas City Royals 24½
Miami Marlins 24½
Baltimore Orioles 21½
Detroit Tigers 21½June 25, 2020 at 11:42 am #131458
This will be a good one to remember later. Fangraphs has the Cardinals finishing fourth in the division. In fairness, the race is predicted to be very tight, with about 1.5 wins separating first and fourth, but still…
If nothing else, it serves as a good reminder that every single game is going to be extremely important.
Yesterday, I told you the NL Central was going to be crazy based on the ZiPS odds. The full Fangraphs Playoff Odds are now available, and yep, still crazy. https://t.co/Ts8zbB6k7C pic.twitter.com/lAIqWXRU33
— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) June 25, 2020June 25, 2020 at 2:47 pm #131460GameCardParticipantFree
I despise Fangraphs.June 29, 2020 at 7:48 am #131791
Caesar’s odds, as reported by ESPN, have the Reds, Cards and Cubs all at 31 1/2 wins. But the Reds and Cubs are 2.1/1 co-favorites to win the division. Cards look like a good bet at 2.4/1, IMO. Reds and Cubs are 9/1 to win the NL with StL at 11/1.
World Series odds, pennant odds and win totals for all 30 MLB teams https://t.co/UO4t2vbpQO
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 29, 2020June 29, 2020 at 7:50 am #131792
If they had an outfield, they would be ranked much higher.June 29, 2020 at 7:52 am #131793
From what I have read, it is being expressed as more of a general concern about the offense scoring runs.
Clearly, they need the young outfielders to step up. But they also need veterans like Carpenter and Goldschmidt to at least return to career norms so the youngsters feel less pressure.June 29, 2020 at 8:25 am #131797
I’m hopeful that Carpenter playing in the field a lot less will open up the bat. But at his age, that’s no guarantee. Goldy should hit better as well. I did the math last fall that the offense was something like 60 runs worse just from the loss of bat production by Carp and Goldy in 2019 vs 2018. While expecting them to be at the MVP level of 2018 may be too much, it’s not ridiculous to believe they could be 20-30% better than league average with the bat, each.June 29, 2020 at 9:11 am #131807
Good points, but these guys are core players that should be the center of the offense. Instead, if the season hinges on rookie outfielders, that speaks to a fundamental roster construction problem, IMO. Team leaders have to lead…June 29, 2020 at 9:18 am #131808
Good points, but these guys are core players that should be the center of the offense. Instead, if the season hinges on rookie outfielders, that speaks to a fundamental roster construction problem, IMO. Team leaders have to lead…
I fully agree. Having Carlson come up and play should be something between a nice surprise and a luxury, not a necessity. I suspect we will see him later in the year unless he forces the team’s hand during the summer training camp.June 29, 2020 at 11:03 am #131818
If you feel really lucky, here are the odds from betonline.ag for the case that the Cards make the World Series, which AL team they would play:
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals 28/1
Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals 100/1
Oakland Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals 100/1
Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals 100/1
Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals 125/1
Cleveland Indians vs St. Louis Cardinals 150/1
Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals 150/1
Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals 200/1
Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals 350/1
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals 400/1
Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates 500/1
Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals 750/1
Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals 1250/1
Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals 1250/1
Detroit Tigers vs St. Louis Cardinals 2000/1June 29, 2020 at 11:47 am #131819
Your St. Louis Cardinals 2020 outfield (2019 stats) –
Bader – .205/.314/.366/.680/K rate – 30%
Fowler – .238/.346/.409/.755/K Rate – 25%
O’Neill – .262/.311/.411/.722/k RATE – 35%
Sure, Carp and Goldy need to produce. But you need to have at least one OFer you can count on to produce runs. Preferably 2. Last season we ended up 19th in MLB in runs scored. And that was with Ozuna, who ranked 2nd on the team in RBI and third in runs scored.June 29, 2020 at 11:53 am #131820
As mentioned, the 60 run loss by Carpenter and Goldschmidt was the biggest factor in the offense looking so bad. +60 runs and the team is 9th in runs scored in a tough offensive park.
Oh, and O’Neill will be an overall upgrade over Ozuna, who was overrated with the bat and was not the same defender after his shoulder injury.June 29, 2020 at 4:26 pm #131825
You’re right, 25. With those 29 home runs and 89 RBI Ozuna was highly overrated with the bat. I’m sure O’Neill will far surpass that.June 29, 2020 at 5:09 pm #131827
He well might have if the whole season had been played. Ozuna was rated at 106 and 107 OPS+ his two years in St Louis. We also know that his defense was nothing to write home about.
Put another way, Tyler O’Neill, for all of his struggles was worth 1.5 bWAR in 293 plate appearances the last two years, or 195.3 plate appearances per win. Marcell Ozuna was worth 4.5 bWAR in 1177 plate appearances, or 261.6 plate appearances per win.
I’d expect O’Neill to be about 10% better with the bat than Ozuna and better with the glove as well.July 1, 2020 at 9:11 pm #132005July 1, 2020 at 10:27 pm #132008
You’re a wonderful dreamer regarding O’Neill, 25. 10% better than Ozuna at the plate? And the dWAR is really wonderful stuff. Does it factor in a 35% K rate? With all the runners that are left stranded?July 2, 2020 at 1:56 am #132012858booyahParticipantFree
The Rona didn’t blind me to the fact that the offense lost Ozuna and gained almost nothing.
Fowler is a Platoon Play.
Carpenter is a Platoon play IMO. He may be better but run production is key
O’Neill we don’t really know. He’s likely a bit of make or break.
I feel DeJong is who he is. Fringe All-star with good defense and a streaky bat.
Bader I feel may be a platoon play. This is the year we find out.
The infield defense will be solid.
The pitching will be good. Little worried about the pen.
We can’t afford a slow start. It took us a few months to get going last year.
Honestly I’d like to see Lane Thomas and Carlson get a little more run if they both make the roster. Maybe we can catch some lighting in a bottle early on with Edman, Thomas and Carlson playing more like the Braves did playing Riley and ride that to a division title. idk but I felt going in pre covid we were 3-4 place in the central.July 2, 2020 at 7:25 am #13201714NyquisTParticipant
On July 2 I’ll take a stab at the NLC final standings. Injuries and health may alter my prediction and the ultimate positioning.
1. Cardinals- pitching… pitching…. pitching and a couple of comebacks.
2. (tie) Cubs- but will miss the post season.
2. Reds- improvements starting to show.
4. Brewers- problem here is not enough depth.
5. Pirates- perennial bottom feeders for several reasons.
Does anyone else want to give it a shot? I always like to see what others are thinking.July 2, 2020 at 7:27 am #132019
Your assessment makes sense to me, Ny.July 2, 2020 at 7:44 am #132023
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cards end up with Carlson, Dean, and Ravello in the OF. With Edman as the 4th outfielder.July 2, 2020 at 8:02 am #132026
Wow! All I can say is that your long-held lack of confidence in O’Neill and Thomas seems to be clouding your judgment if you honestly think Dean and Ravelo are better starting options. Further, Bader at WORST would be the fourth outfielder, not Edman, because of his defense and running skills. (Reminder that minor league hitting stats are not how MLB roster and playing time decisions are made.)July 2, 2020 at 9:23 am #132036
Bader can be a late inning defensive replacement. That’s generally labeled a #5 outfielder.July 2, 2020 at 9:55 am #1320411964cardsParticipantPaid - Annual
FWIW, I am predicting Bader and O’Neal will be opening day starters barring injury. However, they will be given a short leash given the 60-game schedule. Thomas and Carlson will be ready to step in.
I see Carp as the DH and Edman at third.July 2, 2020 at 10:01 am #132042
Bader is the starting center fielder. At least that’s what he says, quizzically wondering why anyone would think differently.
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