Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #131313
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Cardinals at 20/1. Fifth team in NL, but best in the Central.

    #131372
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    From betonline.ag:

    For the Cards, “over” is 33-27 or better and “under” is 32-28 or worse.

    20 of 30 MLB teams have above-.500 win odds.

    MLB Win Totals (From Highest to Lowest)
    Los Angeles Dodgers 38½
    New York Yankees 38½
    Houston Astros 35½
    Minnesota Twins 34½
    Atlanta Braves 33½
    Oakland Athletics 33½
    Tampa Bay Rays 33½
    Washington Nationals 33½
    Cleveland Indians 32½
    New York Mets 32½
    St. Louis Cardinals 32½
    Arizona Diamondbacks 31½
    Boston Red Sox 31½
    Chicago Cubs 31½
    Chicago White Sox 31½
    Cincinnati Reds 31½
    Los Angeles Angels 31½
    Milwaukee Brewers 31½
    Philadelphia Phillies 31½
    San Diego Padres 31½
    Texas Rangers 29½
    Toronto Blue Jays 28½
    Colorado Rockies 27½
    Pittsburgh Pirates 25½
    San Francisco Giants 25½
    Seattle Mariners 25½
    Kansas City Royals 24½
    Miami Marlins 24½
    Baltimore Orioles 21½
    Detroit Tigers 21½

    #131458
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    This will be a good one to remember later. Fangraphs has the Cardinals finishing fourth in the division. In fairness, the race is predicted to be very tight, with about 1.5 wins separating first and fourth, but still…

    If nothing else, it serves as a good reminder that every single game is going to be extremely important.

    #131460
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    I despise Fangraphs.

    #131791
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Caesar’s odds, as reported by ESPN, have the Reds, Cards and Cubs all at 31 1/2 wins. But the Reds and Cubs are 2.1/1 co-favorites to win the division. Cards look like a good bet at 2.4/1, IMO. Reds and Cubs are 9/1 to win the NL with StL at 11/1.

    #131792
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    If they had an outfield, they would be ranked much higher.

    #131793
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    From what I have read, it is being expressed as more of a general concern about the offense scoring runs.

    Clearly, they need the young outfielders to step up. But they also need veterans like Carpenter and Goldschmidt to at least return to career norms so the youngsters feel less pressure.

    #131797
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’m hopeful that Carpenter playing in the field a lot less will open up the bat. But at his age, that’s no guarantee. Goldy should hit better as well. I did the math last fall that the offense was something like 60 runs worse just from the loss of bat production by Carp and Goldy in 2019 vs 2018. While expecting them to be at the MVP level of 2018 may be too much, it’s not ridiculous to believe they could be 20-30% better than league average with the bat, each.

    #131807
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Good points, but these guys are core players that should be the center of the offense. Instead, if the season hinges on rookie outfielders, that speaks to a fundamental roster construction problem, IMO. Team leaders have to lead…

    #131808
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Good points, but these guys are core players that should be the center of the offense. Instead, if the season hinges on rookie outfielders, that speaks to a fundamental roster construction problem, IMO. Team leaders have to lead…

    I fully agree. Having Carlson come up and play should be something between a nice surprise and a luxury, not a necessity. I suspect we will see him later in the year unless he forces the team’s hand during the summer training camp.

    #131818
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    If you feel really lucky, here are the odds from betonline.ag for the case that the Cards make the World Series, which AL team they would play:

    St. Louis Cardinals
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals 28/1
    Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals 100/1
    Oakland Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals 100/1
    Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals 100/1
    Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals 125/1
    Cleveland Indians vs St. Louis Cardinals 150/1
    Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals 150/1
    Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals 200/1
    Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals 350/1
    Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals 400/1
    Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates 500/1
    Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals 750/1
    Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals 1250/1
    Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals 1250/1
    Detroit Tigers vs St. Louis Cardinals 2000/1

    #131819
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    Your St. Louis Cardinals 2020 outfield (2019 stats) –

    Bader – .205/.314/.366/.680/K rate – 30%
    Fowler – .238/.346/.409/.755/K Rate – 25%
    O’Neill – .262/.311/.411/.722/k RATE – 35%

    Sure, Carp and Goldy need to produce. But you need to have at least one OFer you can count on to produce runs. Preferably 2. Last season we ended up 19th in MLB in runs scored. And that was with Ozuna, who ranked 2nd on the team in RBI and third in runs scored.

    #131820
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    As mentioned, the 60 run loss by Carpenter and Goldschmidt was the biggest factor in the offense looking so bad. +60 runs and the team is 9th in runs scored in a tough offensive park.

    Oh, and O’Neill will be an overall upgrade over Ozuna, who was overrated with the bat and was not the same defender after his shoulder injury.

    #131825
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    You’re right, 25. With those 29 home runs and 89 RBI Ozuna was highly overrated with the bat. I’m sure O’Neill will far surpass that.

    #131827
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    He well might have if the whole season had been played. Ozuna was rated at 106 and 107 OPS+ his two years in St Louis. We also know that his defense was nothing to write home about.

    Put another way, Tyler O’Neill, for all of his struggles was worth 1.5 bWAR in 293 plate appearances the last two years, or 195.3 plate appearances per win. Marcell Ozuna was worth 4.5 bWAR in 1177 plate appearances, or 261.6 plate appearances per win.

    I’d expect O’Neill to be about 10% better with the bat than Ozuna and better with the glove as well.

    #132005
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #132008
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    You’re a wonderful dreamer regarding O’Neill, 25. 10% better than Ozuna at the plate? And the dWAR is really wonderful stuff. Does it factor in a 35% K rate? With all the runners that are left stranded?

    #132012
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    The Rona didn’t blind me to the fact that the offense lost Ozuna and gained almost nothing.

    Fowler is a Platoon Play.

    Carpenter is a Platoon play IMO. He may be better but run production is key

    O’Neill we don’t really know. He’s likely a bit of make or break.

    I feel DeJong is who he is. Fringe All-star with good defense and a streaky bat.

    Bader I feel may be a platoon play. This is the year we find out.

    The infield defense will be solid.

    The pitching will be good. Little worried about the pen.

    We can’t afford a slow start. It took us a few months to get going last year.

    Honestly I’d like to see Lane Thomas and Carlson get a little more run if they both make the roster. Maybe we can catch some lighting in a bottle early on with Edman, Thomas and Carlson playing more like the Braves did playing Riley and ride that to a division title. idk but I felt going in pre covid we were 3-4 place in the central.

    #132017
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    On July 2 I’ll take a stab at the NLC final standings. Injuries and health may alter my prediction and the ultimate positioning.

    1. Cardinals- pitching… pitching…. pitching and a couple of comebacks.
    2. (tie) Cubs- but will miss the post season.
    2. Reds- improvements starting to show.
    4. Brewers- problem here is not enough depth.
    5. Pirates- perennial bottom feeders for several reasons.

    Does anyone else want to give it a shot? I always like to see what others are thinking.

    #132019
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Your assessment makes sense to me, Ny.

    #132023
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    It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cards end up with Carlson, Dean, and Ravello in the OF. With Edman as the 4th outfielder.

    #132026
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Wow! All I can say is that your long-held lack of confidence in O’Neill and Thomas seems to be clouding your judgment if you honestly think Dean and Ravelo are better starting options. Further, Bader at WORST would be the fourth outfielder, not Edman, because of his defense and running skills. (Reminder that minor league hitting stats are not how MLB roster and playing time decisions are made.)

    #132036
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    Bader can be a late inning defensive replacement. That’s generally labeled a #5 outfielder.

    #132041
    Avatar1964cards
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    FWIW, I am predicting Bader and O’Neal will be opening day starters barring injury. However, they will be given a short leash given the 60-game schedule. Thomas and Carlson will be ready to step in.

    I see Carp as the DH and Edman at third.

    #132042
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    Bader is the starting center fielder. At least that’s what he says, quizzically wondering why anyone would think differently.

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