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Here was the take from Viva El Birdos on Dylan Carlson:
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2016/6/9/11899562/pick-33-dylan-carlson-of-1b-elk-grove-hs
Another take from the end of the first year. The author mentioned that he thought Carlson was a reach but thought that the Cards would make something of him:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/baseballdraftreport.com/2016/11/07/9403/amp/
Bleacher Report lists the Cards as draft winners in 2016 but doesn’t mention Carlson at all:
TCN’s take from back in the Scout days (sorry, Brian…just trying to be thorough):
Yes, thanks for sharing that. It was fun to re-read. Scott Schook, who was with us then, did a good job capturing the various current perspectives on the draft picks.
(As a public service reminder, the above link – as well as all of our prior years of draft articles – can be found under “DRAFT” in the left column in red here at TCN.)
Carpenter – TCU
Dejong – Illinois State
Wong – U. of Hawaii
Goldschmidt – Texas State
Edman – Stanford
Miller – ClemsonAll 6 infielders are college players.
Cool, glad to hear. I wasn’t sure if your articles all came with you or not and the Scout article came up early in a Google search. I’ll look here next time. Still, it’s interesting to look back and see that Perez was a pick people thought was a slam dunk and Carlson was almost an afterthought between Perez and Hudson by many.
Oh, no. No articles came with us from Scout. Nothing did, other than subscribers whose money they kept from you and me in return for no more content. That was a really rough year, which I remind myself of now. As far as I can tell, what articles remain at 247 was an arbitrary call. My guess is that they kept some of the higher hit rate articles, which draft recaps are.
bccran wrote:
All 6 infielders are college players.
Ergo, all infielders should be college draftees? Sorry, Gorman. If you apply that to outfielders, too, then sorry, Carlson, O’Neill, Thomas, etc…
One size does not fit all…
Though as already discussed, there will be fewer high schoolers taken from now forward since the draft dynamics have been greatly altered.
We will never know but I wonder how much of the draft changes were expense control vs. concluding that the risk in taking high schoolers needed to be mitigated by legislation. If the latter is a factor, it would hardly be the first time MLB put rules in place to protect themselves from themselves.
I don’t believe I said that all infielders should be college draftees. Didn’t say that at all. Nor did I say that all outfielders should be college draftees. I did say that high round college draftees are less of a risk and that most of the Cardinals high round high school position player draftees haven’t made it.
Agreed. You are clearly more risk averse than the Cardinals have been. Nothing wrong with that. Just a different approach. One could draw the investment analogy, for example. The magic middle ground is determining when and how often to take some chances to try to increase the level of return.
As always, the best way to do good is to make good picks…
I was very happy that the Cardinals took high round college players in the 2015 draft. The draft alone exhibits what I’ve been saying about high school position players vs. more proven college position players –
1st Round – Nick Plummer, high school outfielder
CBA – Jake Woodford, high school pitcher
2nd round – Bryce Denton, high school third baseman
3rd round – Harrison Bader, college outfielder
SUP – Jordan Hicks, high school pitcher
4th round – Paul DeJong, college third baseman
5th round – Ryan Helsley, college pitcherSummary –
College pitcher? Yes.
College position players? Yes.
High School pitchers? Yes.
High school position players? No.I truly hope both Carlson and Gorman beat the odds and make it. We need them badly.
One can find examples to support just about any conclusion. Just pick the right draft year.
If the real world was as simple as you make it appear via hindsight, the draft would be driven by formulas based on the past.
The scouting reports and signability assessments on the players available when a team makes its pick are what matter most. Ask any scouting director (except for the team picking no. 1) and he will tell you he is not coming in with a pre-determined decision about which player or even what kind of player (college, prep, hitter or pitcher) to take. They wait and see what comes to them during the draft. Of course, they consider scenarios ahead of time, but when a team consistently drafts near the end of the first round, the level of uncertainty really increases.
For example, the Cards did not plan on taking a prep shortstop with their first pick in 2016. Delvin Perez had been a top-five talent who unexpectedly became available at no. 23. As we read in the articles at the time, many observers thought the upside was worth the risk. Now, with the benefit of four seasons of hindsight, we can with a decent level of confidence pan the pick. Others go as far as considering two high school shortstops taken almost a decade apart under totally different circumstances and draw broad conclusions from just these two data points.
Every pick has a backstory of some kind. It cannot all be planned out. Too many variables. This is why 99.9 percent of mock draft picks end up being wrong, even the ones with experts making the selections. You miss one pick early on, and the other dominoes afterward fall differently. It happens every year.
P.S. The guys who provide commentary during the draft make their own predictions and do a little better, but they do not determine the picks scientifically, based on history, need or anything else. They simply call their contacts working for the teams and check with agents to try to learn which players the organizations are scouting most heavily and talking with.
High school middle infielders taken in the first round BEFORE the Cardinals’ first pick (or where it would have been without penalty) this decade:
2017: Royce Lewis
2016: Gavin Lux
2015: Brendan Rodgers
2014: Nick Gordon, Cole Tucker, Michael Chavis
2013: JP Crawford
2012: Carlos Correa, Addison Russell, Gavin Cecchini, Corey Seager
2011: Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez
2010: Manny MachadoNot all were home runs, but what if the Cardinals had picked earlier and bagged one or more of these guys? It would have changed the whole analysis.
Again, I not disputing that college picks are on the average safer. That doesn’t mean they are always best. I am against hard and fast rules, so it might seem in some of these discussions like my opinion is very strong in one direction, when in reality, I am just trying to pull the other person from one extreme into the vast middle.
Perhaps even more telling are the prep middle infielders taken AFTER the Cards made their first pick. This is not a complete list.
2016: Carter Kieboom, Bo Bichette
2015: Ryan Mountcastle
2014: Isan Diaz
2013: Christian Arroyo, Travis Demeritte
2012: Daniel Robertson, Jesmuel Valentin
2011: Trevor Story, Mookie Betts (drafted as a SS in the fifth round!)Not as impressive, but these are some big names now that the Cardinals could absolutely have taken. For example, Kieboom or Bichette instead of Delvin in 2016 would have changed this entire narrative.
Perhaps the Cardinals over the years have just been woeful at drafting high school position player talent in the very high rounds. That may explain all the fine high school examples you have displayed that they didn’t draft.
Please tell me what highly drafted outfielders have been successful for the Cardinals over the past 13 years.
And where the ones in our outfield who have been successful have come from.Again, right now we have an all college infield. All 6 of them.
In the outfield, we have a starter in center that’s a college player. We’re hoping that high schoolers O’Neill,
Thomas, Carlson, and Williams are the answer. Guys like this haven’t been in the past, but I guess we can hope.
If they don’t succeed, we can go back to trading for a proven player or two from the outside to fill the bill. As has been our modus in the past.However, we won’t know if they will be successful or not if we don’t give them a chance to prove themselves.
We supposedly know because selected others who came before them struggled. Have a theory; find data to support it.
This is why 99.9 percent of mock draft picks end up being wrong, even the ones with experts making the selections.
Sounds like a waste of brain-power.
Well, it depends on your perspective. Some like doing mocks and following them as it increases knowledge of the prospects and builds anticipation for draft day.
Like I said, some predictions made by real reporters (such as MLB Pipeline and BA) on and around draft day are really rumors about which players certain teams are looking at. They have a bit more basis, at least.
Personally, I look at it this way. Given that the odds are only 1 in 30 that any particular amateur ends up being a Cardinal, I cannot afford to invest much time in a player until his name is called out on draft day.
I enjoy looking at mock drafts and prospect rankings set out before the draft to see if we reached or got a windfall in the first few rounds as the draft unfolds. Then enjoy looking up and listing all the stats of each player drafted to try to spot any diamonds in the rough.
Here is a story quoting Randy Flores about getting ready for the draft with no games and no travel.
Pandemic forces major changes in Cardinals preparations for draft, but not in the importance of scouts’ work https://t.co/vZKyPbEnjG
— KSDK Sports (@KSDKSports) April 27, 2020
For those curious, the Cards will have $8,852,000 for 12 picks if the draft is 10 rounds. If it is only five rounds, the spend drops to $7,901,100 for seven picks. The two extras are for competitive balance and compensation for the loss of Ozuna.
Austin Martin and Garrett Mitchell will most likely be gone before we pick at #21, but I’d like to see the Cards pick one of these 6 guys in the first 5 rounds.
Heston Kjerstad – Arkansas
Zach DeLoach – Texas A&M
Tyler Gentry – U. of Alabama
Alerick Soularie – U. of Tennessee
Parker Chavers – Coastal Carolina
Trevor Hauver – Arizona StateAll outfielders with big bats, and all rank in the Top 150 draft prospects.
Some like doing mocks and following them as it increases knowledge of the prospects and builds anticipation for draft day.
Given that the odds are only 1 in 30 that any particular amateur ends up being a Cardinal, I cannot afford to invest much time in a player until his name is called out on draft day.
Right and right.
I spend some time looking at the amateurs. But I’m a Card’s organization only fan and I analyze who we select.
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