2020 MLB Draft

The way things are going, 150 could very well encompass the entire draft.

Below is a breakdown of our new Top 150 #MLBDraft Prospects list. And here is said list: https://t.co/myGvktlLun pic.twitter.com/eLTwPNaNDa

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 24, 2020

I sure hope they can find some talented middle infielders in this draft. All they’ve got behind Dejong and Wong are Edman, Sosa, and Mateo Gil, if you want to even count him. Maybe there’s someone over in the DSL, but if there is, he sure hasn’t made any waves yet.

I still like Max Schrock

What happened to Evan Mendoza?

All of the players mentioned here are utility types that we can get by with in a pinch. Sosa holds the most promise, IMHO. But he sure has taken a long time to develop. Robertson seems like a player you’d like having around as a utility player, but his bat has been unimpressive. I see him as a future manager or coach somewhere down the road. Max Shrock could help out at some point, but I don’t see him getting much traction in be bigs. The same goes for Mendoza, IMO. I thought drafting Perez was a mistake from the beginning. Drafting a player whose stats were acquired using steroids showed that there were guys in the front office who were either naive, stupid, or questionable in other ways. I’d like to see them come up with a middle infielder who becomes a budding star, somebody who is exciting to follow in his development. None of the middle infielders we have right now get much ink because none of them are standouts. BTW, everybody on this forum knows all this already. We need to get some games started, or at least the draft. I wonder if they could move the draft up a few days, say, like tomorrow, or at the very latest, sometime this coming week.

As counter-intuitive as it sounds, a draft weak on middle infielders might be just what this front office needs to snag a keeper.

So, exactly what are the lessons to be learned as you see it? Scout better? Develop better?

Is it a reference to one your oft-repeated guidelines for success – don’t draft high schoolers?

Well, if so, then the Cards would not have some of their very best players and prospects, including:

Dylan Carlson, OF, no. 33 overall in 2016
Nolan Gorman, 3B, no. 18 overall in 2018
Jordan Hicks, RP, no. 105 overall in 2017
Jack Flaherty, SP, no. 34 overall in 2014
…

P.S. To that point, here is an interesting factoid. On our current top prospect list for 2020, just two of the top 17 players currently in the system were college draftees – Andrew Knizner and Zack Thompson. None of the other 15 went to college – some were high schoolers and others were of that age or younger, signed internationally.

Here is what BA wrote about Kozma at the time.

2007 Draft Scouting Report
There may not be a true middle infielder drafted in the first round this year, but Kozma is as good a candidate as any. He impressed scouting directors when his team made a swing through Florida in late March, and he had a three-homer game in an Oklahoma 6-A playoff contest. Kozma has no true standout tool, but he also has no glaring weakness. He grades out as average to slightly above-average in every tool except power, and he does have pop. His instincts help him play above his physical ability at bat, on the bases and in the field. He has good plate coverage and uses the entire field, projecting as a future No. 2 hitter in a big league lineup. Coming into the spring, some scouts questioned whether he’d be a long-term shortstop, but he has no doubters now. A Wichita State recruit, Kozma draws raves for his consistency and energy as well.

Your other example is Perez, who hit very well as a high schooler. His deal was the Cardinals gambling on his steroids – not a normal case.

The general perception of pundits at the time seemed to be that the Carlson pick that early was a reach, sort of like your recollection of the Kozma reaction. I recall some explaining Carlson as a money-saving pick.

On the broader point, I try to be careful to not use one person’s reaction to anything as a firm validation. Scouts, just like message board posters or any cross section of people, can have very different views of the same player. Of course, 13 years later, as in the case of Kozma, hindsight vision is much closer to 20-20.

Back in the day, the common complaint was why the Cardinals did not take Rick Porcello instead of Kozma. But if scouting was an exact science, the best player in the game, Mike Trout (yet another high schooler, from a cold-weather state on top of it), would not have been the 25th overall selection in his draft.

P.S. It is also worth noting that an organization’s draft philosophy can shift with the identity of the scouting director. Jeff Luhnow received a lot of credit over the years, but was also in charge when Kozma was selected.

2016 was Randy Flores’ first draft, but his predecessor’s illegal activity left him with no early picks in 2017 and he pretty much whiffed on the ones he had. No clear answers.