2020 MLB Draft

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  • #129651
    AvatarDavid Martin
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    interesting name LACardFan.
    24 out of 26 SB as a soph.

    https://olemisssports.com/sports/baseball/roster/anthony-servideo/2471

    #129652
    AvatarDavid Martin
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    He’s # 111 on that list that GC linked

    #129653
    1946worldserieschamps1946worldserieschamps
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    Cardinals in 2019 6 out of 8 first picks they went, pitcher. So I’d like to see them take a bat, but it feels like it’ll be a pitcher. I could see someone dropping to them as Gorman did. I feel like they need to upgrade the offense in the farm system. Cardinals love Cape Cod league so look at Cavalli, Wilcox, Mlodzinski. In 2018 Cardinals took 15 players with Cape Cod experience. Zack Thompson, Tony Locey, Andre Pallante in 2019.

    My list of hope they fall to Cardinals
    Tyler Soderstrom
    Pete Crow Armstrong
    Jared Kelley
    Garrett Mitchell

    #129654
    1946worldserieschamps1946worldserieschamps
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    Ed Howard feels like Delvin Perez/Pete Kozma.

    #129658
    Avatarbccran
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    Bingo, 1946.

    #129659
    AvatarGameCard
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    I don’t see any indication that Howard is like either one of those two.

    #129660
    Avatargrenadier1
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    1946, there are some similarities defensively, however I think offensively there are a few reasons to differentiate the two. Namely Howard is already 20 pounds heavier at roughly the same height with most projecting room to add more good weight and strength. That was a question mark for Perez, particularly after the PED issue. The other part that stands out is most seem to think that Howard has an advanced approach at the plate, particularly for a “cold weather” player. While I agree the glove over bat comp works, there is a little more projection in the bat than I think Perez had. Overall I’m a little weary of the lack of track record, but there are some tools there to work with if that is the way the Cards go. I don’t think that would be my pick, but I’m not a scout obviously. Hindsight is 20/20 on Perez though. At the time a consensus top 10 prospect falling into your lap in the back half of the first round seemed like a great pick. He’s still young and still talented, if the bat comes around, that pick may still look pretty good.

    #129662
    Avatarbccran
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    GameCard – do you have a technique to project how good a junior in high school will be? Are you willing to bet millions of dollars on that junior?

    #129664
    AvatarGameCard
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    If our scouts are then I am. I would however choose a college pitcher first.

    #129667
    Avatarbccran
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    GameCard –
    As I said in another thread, since we only have 1 pick in the first 53 picks, it’s probably best we don’t take a player who has only played baseball through the 11th grade at #21.

    #129668
    Avatarmudville
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    A college pitcher makes the most sense barring the unexpected. I won’t complain if they take a bat like Soderstrom or middle infielder with a potential high ceiling like Howard. Sometimes the front office guys just have to trust themselves and the data they have. That said, the circumstances around Howard remind me more of Nick Plummer than Perez or Kozma even though all three of them have generated about the same level of disappointment.

    #129677
    Avatarbccran
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    Mudville – how do you really quantify a “high ceiling” for a high school kid who has only played through 11th grade? Facing pitchers who are the same.

    I’ve always been intrigued by the concept that talented high school players probably have higher ceilings than talented college players (who have a high floor). Maybe BW can explain that. The fact is that a higher percentage of college draftees make it to the major leagues than high school draftees.

    #129683
    AvatarDavid Martin
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    Keith Law new mock today.
    Has us taking Miami rhP Chris McMahon

    #129684
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran asked:

    Maybe BW can explain that.

    Exceptions to the rule.

    One size may fit most, but it does not mean all.

    bccran, you are clearly more risk averse than most scouting directors. Nothing wrong with that, but you need to accept that not all others see it that way. They do not do their jobs by managing to the broad averages across thousands of players. They scout individuals, some of whom are viewed by professional talent evaluators as having upside worth making the investment.

    We’ve had this same kind of discussion a number of times on different topics, but you do not seem to accept the reality that not all situations fit neatly into hard and fast rules.

    #129685
    Avatarbccran
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    Okay, I understand that Brian. But I’ve also heard baseball people (scouts) talk about high school players having a higher ceiling and college players having a high floor. It’s not my opinion alone by any means. Maybe it’s because some professional baseball people feel that professional managers and coaches at the short season levels will do a better job bringing out full potential than college coaches.

    #129686
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    Flores has to consider everything. When it comes to who is the Cardinals first pick it is usually which scout or group of scouts can persuade Flores to choose their guy. I was told that in person by a Cardinal scout.

    #129687
    Avatarbccran
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    It’s a combination between analytics and the scouts personal opinion. What’s interesting are the intangibles – team orientation, how he accepts instruction, competitiveness, attitude, etc.

    #129688
    Avatarmudville
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    I’m thinking that when scouting players at the high school level scouts are largely basing their evaluations on the kid’s size and his physique and his reflexes which together, I guess, is referred to as ‘raw talent’. I know Luis Robert was looked at that way, and I have to think that our scouts, and others, looked at Trejyn Fletcher that way. So if a player is said to have raw talent, it follows that he would have a high ceiling. The teams that draft high school players because of raw talent are naturally going to be the teams that draft later in the rounds because the ‘can’t miss’ players are already gone by the time they get their chance to draft. They take the greater risk with the hope of drafting the greater talent. What would you rather have, three very good prospects or one elite prospect?

    #129695
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    mud asked:

    What would you rather have, three very good prospects or one elite prospect?

    This is one of the many motivations based on MLB’s systems in place for below average teams to totally tank before trying to get better.

    #129696
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    But I’ve also heard baseball people (scouts) talk about high school players having a higher ceiling and college players having a high floor. It’s not my opinion alone by any means.

    Again, these are generic discussions that may be more right than wrong, but every player is not the same. I guarantee you that there is not a scout out there who would NOT NOT recommend a good high school player based on these broad assessments – or he would soon become an ex-scout.

    #129697
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Maybe you are hung up on the definitions. Often, the ceiling and floor are cited as opposites.

    “Higher ceiling, lower floor” – We know less about this player because he is less experienced and perhaps not yet physically mature. Because of that, there is a greater variance in his expected outcome. He could become really good or end up being a major disappointment.

    “Lower ceiling, higher floor” – We know more about this player because he is more experienced and physically mature. Because of that, there is a lower variance in his expected outcome. We feel like we can better peg what kind of professional he may be. He may be considered a surer thing, but a lesser talent.

    The key is that this does NOT say is what LEVEL any individual player’s ceiling is.

    No organization takes all their players from one of these two general categories while ignoring the other.

    #129698
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    I do not like the ” ceiling and floor” expressions. They don’t really tell you much.

    #129699
    Avatarbccran
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    I just remember we drafted Shaun Boyd #13 in the first round 20 years ago and the scout said he had a quick bat and would develop power as he matured physically. Really liked him and pushed him hard for the 1st round before some other team got him. He was rated something like the 30th best player in Southern California for that draft. I also remember in 2015 when they drafted a 5’10” outfielder at #23 by the name of Nick Plummer. Supposedly a great athlete with outstanding tools, including both power and speed. In 96 games in 2019 he slashed .176/.312/.294/.606 at the A+ level. Smashed 5 home runs and pirated 3 stolen bases. Or how about that Kozma kid picked #18 in the 2007 draft?

    #129700
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It seems to me that your expectations are unreasonably high. The history of baseball is littered with prospects who did not realize their potential. There are also many who did well. You remember the high school failures and forget the college failures.

    But that is history. The bottom line is the same as many of our discussions. What Player A did in the past has nothing to do with Player B in the future.

    #129703
    Avatarmudville
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    ‘Ceiling’ and ‘floor’ give a little more insight into what a scout is thinking about a given player. It’s a point worth considering, but no one is going to base their assessment on ceiling/floor.

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