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bccran
Cardinals are actually pretty well set for 2025.
What’s that payroll look like?
Bccran – That’s exactly the $145M roster I stated up top, plus whatever Kittredge costs you.
Cranny if they bring back Kittredge on a Middleton type contract (5mil plus option), and pick up Gibsons option, I have those 26 at 150.3mil (arb estimates included).
Some great thoughts Kyle, and welcome! I agree that the more we see our club the more apparent it is that the Marmol hire was a mistake. He seems to have learned his lesson about calling players out in public, but it set a tone that I think still resonates some with the guys that were on the club last year.
Now we see management saying that revenues will be uncertain with the television deal up in the air. The Rockies went through that as well and you can see where they are. Just another reason MLB needs to put media revenue sharing in place like the NFL. You wonder if we may be looking at some lean years ahead.
Oh, and one last thought. We absolutely must trade Pages to the Padres this off season, so that he can be “Padre Pedro Pages”. 🙂
Couple things. What free agents are you referring to being interested in re-signing?
It’s not who I want to sign. It’s ownership and if they do indeed want to reshape the roster and save money then cutting the two old farts and every other FA is the way to go.
Fedde and Edman excluding a couple mil is a wash.
I mean if they lose Kittridge then they will likely grab someone off the heap or just promoted someone withing to take the 7th-8th to compliment Romero.
You want a bat you have to trade from the glut of guys who can’t field very well and project as future DH. Robert would only cost 2 guys from the roster and likely a pitching prospect. He only makes $15 mil next season and has a buyout of $2 mil of you don’t want to keep him. Only 5 million more to keep him around after 2025. They’ll need a vet RHB for the bench and mind. So calculate that in next season.
I mean everyone will get raises in arbitration. Helsley will get a healthy raise. Tanner Scott and Paul Sewald got between 5.7 and 7.3 million last year with about the same amount of time in baseball and neither of them lead the league in saves in last trip Arby. So while I don’t have the golden calculator handy I’ll predict he gets north of what Sewald got by a couple million. So there blows that 10 million estimate people keep throwing out. Oh unless they decide to sell high and deal Ryan to save a buck. Seems like it could be a thing.
Cardinals are actually pretty well set for 2025.
Cardinals will need some bats next year if they want to “compete” and get the turnstiles turning…
An outfield that includes Walker, Scott & Siani doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Re: Helsley, Scott and Sewald
Sewald and Scott are an arb class ahead of Helsley and have higher existing arb salaries. Sewald did not double his salary going into 2024, but Tanner Scott did.
I expect Helsley to double his existing arb salary, so I have 7.6mil for Ryans’ 2025 estimate. He may get more. Saves pay very well.
bccran said:
Cardinals are actually pretty well set for 2025.
It all depends on how one defines “pretty well set”. And what they will be “set” for.
Has anyone ever seen bccran and Mo in the same place at the same time? 😉
Catcher and infield seem pretty well set, whether they extend Goldy or not. It’s the OF that’s the issue – again. Walker is pretty well set in RF and I think Siani is pretty well set in CF. Scott is his backup there. So the real issue is LF. Does
Noot provide enough punch to be a corner outfielder? Do they
give Koperniak a shot there? Do they sign or trade for a better bat there?Yeah, rolling out the same guys you just lost with is no good.
Welcome kyle.
Mo’s system as no role for coaches that bring something to the table.
BW – Many fans went into this season feeling pretty good
about the MOTO with Goldy, Arenado, Contreras, Walker, and
Gorman. Now we can add Burleson and probably subtract Goldy.
So isn’t the real key getting high level production out of
Walker and Gorman? With a decent mentor like Edmonds or
Holliday? Or do you still want that big bat? And if you do, where do you play him? In LF and put Noot on the bench? That makes sense. But where do you get that big bat and still stay within budget?By the way, I’m not Mo, and I’ve criticized enough of his moves over the years not to be considered a Mo sycophant.
bling said:
Yeah, rolling out the same guys you just lost with is no good.
Many of us accepted last year’s debacle as we wanted to hope that 2023 was an anomaly. Now that there are two down years in a row, many fewer are accepting. Many more are thinking the same prescription is probably not going to cure the ailment.
Why should one feel optimistic that the problem can be fixed by taking away some of the current players with no significant external additions? That may be what the Cardinals will be selling for 2025, but I think there will be fewer buyers.
IMO, if Goldschmidt and Arenado were both hitting near their pay grade, the Cardinals would be leading the Division, or close to it. And there would be less pressure on Gorman and he could very well be hitting now like he did at the beginning of the season.
In my opinion, it’s not Mozeliak or the front office. It’s not Marmol or any of the coaches. It’s not lack of leadership or lack of ‘veteran presence’. The NL Central Division is the weakest Division in MLB, and if Goldschmidt and Arenado were doing what they have always done, the Cardinals would be there at the top of the Division, or close to it.
IMO, the 2024 version of the Cardinals is talented but lacks leadership. The 2024 season is not a debacle, the team is currently 1 game over .500.
Two years ago (their best year together), the bWARs of Goldy and Arenado together were 14.0. Last year, they were 6.1 combined. So far this year, Arenado (2.4) and Goldy (1.2) total 3.6 bWAR. So this drop in performance occurred over the last two seasons.
As players get into their mid-to-late 30s, one should not count on them having career years every year. The way long-term contracts are often structured, teams know they won’t get full value from players in their later years. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they have little to show for Goldy’s and Arenado’s peak years. Now they are dealing with the downside reality of higher pay than results received.
Ideally the players’ performance would not drop off the table, either, so they are not blameless. But others have to step up, too, and they mostly haven’t.
I watched this video from Bernie last night. It is about 25 minutes long. He basically says that to fix the Cardinals will require becoming smarter but not necessarily spending more money. He cites Cleveland and Tampa as organizations who have recently been better than the Cardinals but with a fraction of the payroll. He also thinks this is exactly why Bloom was brought in and that Bloom will take over sooner than later.
I get the long standing TB example, but Cleveland much less so. This year, they are good. Last year, they were 10 games under .500 for the season. They were great in 2022 but under .500 in 2021. 2020 was COVID.
The list of consistently winning mid-market teams is very short. Of course, the Cardinals used to top that list.
But then again, the Cardinals used to regularly be in the top eight or so in spending. Not so lately, as others have increased their spending faster than St. Louis, which is now around the middle. That put more pressure on player development to produce more low-cost talent around the time their pitching pipeline dried out. Now, enough of the internally developed hitters aren’t stepping up, either.
Bill DeWitt Jr. when firing Mike Matheny just before the 2018 All-Star break:
“In some places a winning record, or even .500, is even acceptable. Not with this city, not with this franchise, not with its history, and not with the fans.”
So, whether you choose “not acceptable” or “debacle”, it is much less than is expected.
If the Cardinals organization want to hold Tampa Bay up as a model to emulate, maybe someone should point out their fans in the stands…
When you look at who the Brewers have dealt away, who has walked away, and where they are now… Not bad at all.
Semantics, but in my view last season was a “debacle”. This season is pretty much what I expected, maybe even a little better so I don’t consider it a debacle, but more of a “okay we are 10 games or so better than last year so let’s take another step forward for next year.”
I think changing out the manager and coaches would be a good step, but don’t think we will do that. Much of the roster will remain.
Personally I would move on from Gibson and Lynn and get younger arms into the rotation in McGreevy and Graceffo. And I would shop one of the young catchers and someone like Nootbaar, possibly throw in Roycroft for a couple of reasonably talented young pitchers – at least explore a deal like that with the goal of having around four pitchers the caliber of the two we have competing for a a couple of rotation spots. I would also have Liberatore in the mix as a starter for next year.
Basically we are going to be stuck with what we have on offense, with maybe a change at first base, so build your 2025 team on young pitching. Stockpile pitching, but young guys not the old “innings eaters” guys, and see if you can find two or three good, reliable arms from the group.
GameCard, I used the word “debacle” in direct reference to the 2023 team. I stand by that.
Definition of “debacle” from Merriam-Webster: 1. a : a great disaster b : a complete failure
2023 was in fact a debacle. In one year, they went from 24 games over .500 to 20 games below. They dropped from first place to last place.
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