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jj, I believe Burly is leading the regulars in slugging %. So 5 seems to make sense for him. But where does Ollie bat Goldy and Arenado if Noot’s at 2 and Contreras is at 3? If Burly is at 5, one of those two are going to be at 6. I prefer my lineup with Winn, Donovan, Burleson 1,2,3. I’ll take Donovan over Noot at 2.
I agree, Shady. Although the Nootz possesses and uncanny ablility to reach base, I happen to think that Donovan is by far the better hitter.
1td, when Contreras returns, where would you place Burleson in the lineup? One way or the other, they going to have a fairly deep lineup when Contreras, Noot and Edman return. Maybe they need to be buyers at the deadline for starting pitching.
I’m not sure Shady, but it won’t surprise me too much if we see him in the 3 slot at some point. I’d like to see a little more power out of his bat, but he’s right there with Goldschmidt, Gorman and Arenado in TB’s. In fact, Donovan leads the entire team with 109 TB’s, so no one is generating any significant power numbers. Someone or two has to start ripping the baseball with genuine authority for an extended period of time in order for this offense to consistently push runs across HP.
Masyn looked very good in April and May. In June he has an OBP just under .300, an OPS+ under 100 and a K rate approaching 30%. No offense can be successful with that in the leadoff slot. So do we want to gush over his good two months and discount his June? What makes April and May more predictive than June? What is July going to look like? The answer to that is we don’t know? But lets quit acting like school girls when the star quarterback walks past.
I’ll also say that in my view the number of TB’s is the most significant of all the stats when it comes to defining genuine power and offensive production. It’s also nice to see that two Cardinals are in the top three all time career leaders in total bases. They’re sandwiched right between Hank Aaron and Willie Mays and are named Albert Pujols and Stan Musial.
blingboy, what’s your lineup when Contreras and Nootbaar return?
I have sort of quit thinking about lineups Shady. It’s like thinking about arranging the furniture on the Titanic. The better hitters will be mid to up in the lineup, trying to fit in around the bronze busts. Contreras will be there whether he hits or not because of his contract. If Noot hits, he will bat up, if not he bats down. If Burleson continues to hit enough, then Noot will likely play CF vs RHP. If Winn continues to cool, they will have to find somebody with an OBP over .300 to lead off.
I posted, “I believe Burly is leading the regulars in slugging %”. I assume Contreras will have the top slugging % among the regulars when he returns.
There are a couple things to point out about Burleson.
With an OBP not too far over .200 vs lefties there is no point playing him against LHP.
His SLG is substantially higher in June, and I would bet the org is behind that, trying to ‘fix’ him. But that is not the only stat that is different in June. His OBP is .291 and his BABiP is .237, so both the quantity and quality of contact has dropped. Unless that turns around, he will settle into the lower part of the lineup and eventually be replaced with somebody better, perhaps Walker.
Guys like Goldy and Arenado and Contreras earned their way into the middle of the order. You don’t shuffle them around based on small sample sizes of production. But what’s a small sample size? And age declining performance should be considered. And when does their pass end? I’m glad the team has more patience than we as fans do. It’s a long season. Should a month of lower production get a player moved out of a position in the order that they have been effective at? I think Goldy and Arenado need to be moved down. But I will leave that to management before I start jumping up and down. They’ve had nearly half of a season and they aren’t young superstars. Gorman can’t be moved up. I see a good lineup as
Winn
Donovan
Burleson
Contreras
Arenado
Goldy
Gorman
Tommy
NootBut what’s a small sample size?
That is a question which is just as important to be asked about Winn and Burleson as about Goldschmidt and Arenado. Probably more so since they have no track record.
Food for thought. If we want to look at smaller sample sizes, since May 11 (the date the Cardinals offense finally started to wake up), Goldschmidt is 5th on the team in OPS. Nootbaar leads the way, but he’s hurt. That means Goldy is top 4 in the offense and may deserve to bat at the top of the order. Who’s ahead of him? Winn, Donovan, and Gorman (plus Noot). Burleson and Herrera are also up there just behind Goldschmidt. So if we go by that, then the lineup might be:
Winn
Donovan
Goldschmidt
Gorman
Burleson
Herrera
Whichever hopeless 3 Ollie picks
(Contreras lengthens this by one more if one of he or Ivan is the DH).
(Nootbaar may lengthen it by even one more, but only if he is playing CF or Donovan is playing 3B, both of which are unlikely.)I don’t get too excited about these lineup configurations. It’s hard to know what the situation is ever going to be except the top of the first. So hit your best hitters at the top with the best on base guys 1-2. And be a little careful not to put too many lefties in a row. There’s not a lot of other good science behind it.
I agree with Jnevel that after the first inning the lineup configurations don’t mean as much except stacking too many lefties. Here’s what I do know. If you are slumping, and come up in an important situation and fail, you will be called a bad name.
Is this bad? This seems bad.
I’ve read the last two pages of posts. Carlson’s name wasn’t mentioned once. His play so far in ’24 has him on the back burner and his spot the Cards may soon be in jeopardy. Nootbaar returns…. Who goes? Edman returns who else goes. The Memphis outfield may become Carlson-ScottII-Walker. Wasn’t that the Card’s starting OF not too long ago?
L Donny of
R Goldy 1b
L Noot of
R Arenado 3b
L Burly dh
R Contreras c
L Gorman 2b
R Winn ss
S Edman cfWhen healthy I bet/hope we are headed here. Donny / Edman platoon at leadoff.
Catcher? Who goes? Do they keep Pages as the backup? Or Herrera as a DH platoon vs lefties w/Burly? Keep all 3 up?
blingboy, Walker has a long way to go in order to replace Burleson in the lineup. Especially, vs RHP.
If the roster dysfunction trend continues to hold sway, they’ll keep 3 catchers. That way, they can save the salary they pay the BP catcher and have Herrera out there where in all likelihood no one will run on him…
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