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I think it is certain Mo will add to the pen by trades. With all the new additions to the system, he has to trade off some guys, and what else is he going to be going for?
Brian has pointed out several times that there are now more starter candidates than there are rotation slots in the upper levels, with more guys pushing up from below. This threatens to force some of them into reliever roles. So some guys will surely go. It seems like it will be multiples going for fewer returning, and those returning seem likely to be ained at improving the pen. At least that’s how it looks in my world. So I’m not looking for any big reliever splash in the FA market.
Willie….
I always like when people say well we can add someone at the trade deadline to help in post season. (tongue in cheek) You have to be in contention for that to happen and you need good pieces to get us to that point.I agree 100%
Bling:
Brian has pointed out several times that there are now more starter candidates than there are rotation slots in the upper levels, with more guys pushing up from below. This threatens to force some of them into reliever roles.
This has been the FO’s MO for a long time now. ex: Lance Lynn was put in the BP in his first STL season. Of course he soon proved he was a starter, period.
We need a minimum 140 GS from Gorman, Noot and Donovan. They need to step up as everyday players, by being penciled in by Ollie, and being active and available.
Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras and Edman all make their starts. The three lefties from above need to join them as seven proven everyday regulars.
Our error bar then becomes two very young prospects who anyone would try to find playing time for. We can afford more flexibility with Walker and Winn roles, if the three lefties become 140 GS regulars.
While I have made the starter to reliever pressure point, I did not suggest that any of them are ready to play a major role in the 2024 St. Louis pen.
I think the Cards are waiting until later into the winter for prices to go down and they will still add a veteran relief arm or two. As of now, I believe the 2024 pen is inferior to the 2023 pre-deadline version and I am unsure if the new rotation is better enough to improve the overall pitching situation.
Building a good bullpen is probably the most difficult part of building a team because relievers are so volatile. You may think you know what you are getting but you probably really don’t. Unless you are pursuing the top 5% of relievers it really isn’t worth spending a ton of money on in my opinion. I think the Cardinals have several good internal options for the pen who wouldn’t cost much and maybe a moderately priced reliver from outside the organization. Whatever is left in the budget I would go after one more high quality starter. That would be a better investment.
Yep, and the Cardinals have been burned in giving free agent relievers good deals. Brett Cecil might be the worst signing the Cardinals have done with any free agent. Andrew Miller was just about done when we brought him in as well. The Greg Holland sort of last minute panic signing was terrible.
I think the Cardinals feel that any reliever is a risk, so let’s not compound that by throwing payroll dollars away.
Mo has had pretty good luck bringing in a top starter at the deadline. He knows he’s getting someone who is healthy and pitching well. It seems like it would be smart to try the same thing with a top reliever.
People talk about not spending on relievers, but soon as we get playing games and our bullpen sucks, people will start wondering why why we didn’t get someone better during off-season. It’s quite humorous actually. I believe you spend money where you need it regardless. Yea you can point to places where we overspent though I believe if management had asked any random cardinal fan on the street if those players were any good they would have been told hell no. Now maybe MO is secretly thinking we aren’t going to win anyway with this lot so why spend more money on a reliever. I can understand that reasoning. I guess they can just take the money they were supposedly targeting for that other great starter and stuff their pillows or I guess give it to Goldy as a reward for his fine service.
willie, the trade market hasn’t even gotten started yet. Its still December. What makes you think Mo is not going to improve the pen?
Could be recent history. Could be he said that the guys we have may be enough. You just said we could wait til deadline. Though I’ve already argued against that.
Willie, I don’t think anyone is saying the Cardinals shouldn’t try to build a good bullpen. My question is how do they do it? You can usually spend big on a position player and get a decent return on investment, a little less so with starting pitchers, then with relievers it is almost a complete crapshoot because they tend to fluctuate so wildly from year to year and day to day. It is not an exact science.
It may be a crapshoot. I consider most of what the Cardinals tend to do a crapshoot far as trades and free agency. That’s basically what low hanging fruit is, it’s sometimes great, sometimes ok, a lot of the times rotten. Outside of gray, I consider what they have done this off-season a crapshoot. It would be unexpected if gray turned out sour but the other people no it wouldn’t be at all. Id rather they pay decent money that they obviously can afford to do to get what is perceived to be an accomplished pitcher as opposed to doing nothing or getting someone on the cheap hoping they have a miracle year. Then at least I would say they tried if it didn’t work out. Citing pitchers that about anyone could see wasn’t that great or were past their prime isn’t an excuse for not trying to do better if you feel you have a team that can compete. Waiting til a trade deadline two thirds of the way through the season is all well and good if you have the players good enough to keep you in contention til then. Didn’t work out last year when some people said wait until the trade deadline to get better starters
Too scared to build the best roster possible, on the funds available, is a non-competitive attitude. That mindset deserves to lose.
I would have never signed any of the guys they did. Just go ahead and rebuild. I’m happy we still have the young core guys. I hope this “innings eater” approach works. And I realize spring training isn’t here yet. But unless they add somehow, I’m skeptical of anything more than a 500 team. And when I say add, I don’t mean a couple reclamation bullpen arms.
It would be great if the off season could be approached without referrence to certain inconvenient intangibles. Mo has to navigate in the actual world, though. He works for an ownersip group which seems to prefer a prudent business model, and one which would not want to take on big risks and obligations in a climate where future revenue streams may not be predictable. His reality also must acknowledge that he and his wonk posse have made some costly missteps with both free agent signings and trades. All of that narrows the lane he is undoubtedly obliged to stay within.
There are a lot of good relievers out there that may work, may not, but you have to add some depth to the bullpen. Even though it didn’t work, the Zach Duke and Gregerson adds were smart moves. Those moves were paired with the Oh and Norris signings too. One worked, one didn’t.
Among the FA relievers: Middleton from the Sox, Neris, Ottavino, Maton, Junis. All, but Ottavino, with high K rates, which we need with our starters.
Woo Sun Go from Korea or Yariel Rodriguez from Cuba/Japan are also solid options.
. He works for an ownersip group which seems to prefer a prudent business model,
That’s fine. Than they should just rebuild. But they want their cake and eat it too. They want those 3.5 million clicks of the turnstiles. Sony Gray is the only real add. It’s not enough.
Too scared to build the best roster possible, on the funds available, is a non-competitive attitude. That mindset deserves to lose.
I hear what you are saying JJ but building a bullpen is like closing your eyes and throwing a dart at a dartboard. Unfortunately when the Cards wade into the FA reliever waters the dart usually hits the wood paneling and misses the board altogether.
Relievers mostly don’t get huge long term deals. So why wouldn’t a team resign what they’ve got? Why would a good reliever be on the market in the first place?
The players have something to say about where and when they sign. After six years, many players look forward to free agency.
For example, the Cards tried to induce Hicks to agree to a multi-year deal, but he felt he could do better in the open market. He is probably right and his situation is not unique.
Totally agree with Keep Coming Back! What we have done so far imo is add Gray! I love Gray and think he will help, BUT his addition will not make us a contender, even in our weak division!
Andrew Miller, Greg Holland and that loogey from TOR are major FA failures, that seem to have scarred many forum members here. Yes, MAJOR free agent failures.
What was Fowler? Are we done signing FA position players?
Are we done trading due to the kings ransom we paid for Ozuna?
Are we done signing FA pitchers because of Mike Leake?
Are we done extending our own players due to the Carpenter extension?
On, and on, and on.
Some how it became acceptable here, to ignore the crap contracts of Bills legacy players, like Wainwrights historically bad 2023 @ 17mil.
Yet here we are signing 3 new SP contracts, and it’s acceptable? It’s due to need, right?
The bullpen is a need also, but the last two seasons the FO has ignored that need with VerHagen type signings, and rule5 guys you have to look up to know who they are.
There is risk in every transaction. The only way to avoid it is to become the Athletics, a AAAA farm team for MLB.
Count me out on the scared approach. Picking up some guy, is asking for 2023 results.
I don’t remember the details, but it seemed like a couple of guys last year stunk up the joint, basically pitching batting practice DURING regular season games. However, they eventually turned it around. Hicks was one, and Pallante, I think. And Stratton did it in reverse.
Anyway, the manager/pitching coach didn’t have the flexibility to move the melt down guys to mop up duties, and give someone else a chance.
So, maybe a new pitching coach would help?
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