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Hudson’s 4.93 FIP, 1.408 WHIP and 1.58 SO/W that year he won 16 should have tipped us off. Its too bad we didn’t pick Sean Murphy instead. We did pick Zac Gallen a couple rounds later, but we kept the wrong one.
I need to see what Carlson does in the next three seasons before I call him a “whiff”. He just turned 25, and should be entering his prime production years.
He has the talent to ramp it up these next 3-4 years. Whether he does that, or stays at the level he has shown remains to be seen.
If Carlson were on another club, I’d see a 4th OF who fields well anywhere on the outfield grass. Good arm. Platoon starts vs LHP. Good base runner. Early arb salary, 3yrs control. CF positional scarcity value.
Someone has to fill the Jankowski role. The W.S. just showed the 4th outfielders value when a starter goes down. If it’s Carlson for us, it also gives him the opportunity be more than a 4th.
As much as I think Carlson is not going to be starting 8 material, I would agree that we don’t want to move him unless we have someone better to fill the backup role. JJ points up his good attributes for that role, including CF coverage. On the other hand, Mo is going to have to trade people this winter. People with some value, and hopefully not among the starting 8. So Carlson is near the front of that line.
Coming off surgery is not a prime sell point. Although Mo did well trading an injured Bader.
Deadline chip gives Carlson time to re-establish health and better effectiveness? Not like holding on to him makes his value drop.
gscottar –
Wainwright was pretty good “when healthy”. Chris Carpenter was pretty good “when healthy”.Most players do perform better when they are healthy. The question is how often are they healthy and how much are you willing to count on them and how much are you willing to pay knowing they won’t be available for a certain percentage of the time.
blingboy
As much as I think Carlson is not going to be starting 8 material, I would agree that we don’t want to move him unless we have someone better to fill the backup role. JJ points up his good attributes for that role, including CF coverage.
I knew Carlson had bad splits, but I didn’t know it was so stark based on the stats someone else posted. Like you said, he would make a good backup, that you also can put in primarily against LH starters.
Whether that means Edman at CF, or Donovan at LF, or some other combo, I do like having a 4th outfield that can basically be a starter under the right conditions.
They should have Carlson hit right-handed against right-handed pitchers. Nothing says a player has to be a switch hitter.
Bones spurs in the ankle area can be debilitating. I wouldn’t put too much stock in his 2023 season. And certainly not his stub rookie season.And Hudson? He was a ground ball pitcher. Threw a sinking, heavy 95-96 MPH fastball. Talking about his K/9 IP is meaningless. As a reliever, they brought him in to get a double play grounder.
I agree that Carlson should try hitting RH against RH pitchers. It is worth a shot. I think Edman did that some last year.
Carlson may not be a whiff but he isn’t much more than accidental bunt single when you consider how highly he was touted. When he was healthy I didn’t see what all the fuss was about. Eye test says he’s average at best on his best days and he hasnt had many of those. People talk about all the players we let go that did well as reasons we are down I would argue that a lot of it has to do with hanging onto some players too long whether due to owing them a bunch of money or the Cardinals and some fans wrongly perceived value of them.
With the need for pitching, I am a bit surprised we non-tendered Hudson and Woodford. While they have not been consistent, they have had their moments and you want to audition as many arms as possible, or have them as trade arsenal.
Also Knizner was a bit of a surprise, although we are locked in with Contreras and Herrera is ready for more time at the big league level. Kiz has the look of being a pretty good everyday catcher if he gets the opportunity. Does a good job behind the plate, and should hit well enough if given regular reps.
If we want to talk awards, how about Kyle Lewis, then? The OF was the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year (not second or third) but he was non-tendered last week. What matters is results since. BTW, Lewis’ career OPS+ is 104. Carlson’s is 99.
When Lewis was at the same point of his career as Carlson now, Seattle traded him to Arizona. In his one season as a Dback, his results hit a personal low.
I am not saying Carlson should have been non-tendered. But the trends between the two are there. A year from now, Carlson could be Lewis if he continues on his current path.
The $64,000 question is whether Carlson is more valuable as a reserve OF here or in trade somewhere else. No one knows the answer.
I agree that Carlson should try hitting RH against RH pitchers. It is worth a shot. I think Edman did that some last year.
Edman has taken a few right-handed swings in each of the last two years.
The $64,000 question is whether Carlson is more valuable as a reserve OF here or in trade somewhere else? No one knows the answer.
Hopefully our FO knows the answer or will soon. That is what they are paid to figure out.
Well the Cardinals have went out and made the big move. They got lance Lynn……. On the serious side I don’t mind it. He can still give you some quality innings and ten million isn’t terrible. We will see if this is the best we get
11-22-23′
R Gibson
R Mikolas
R Lynn
L Matz
L ThompsonR Helsley
R Gallegos
L Romero
L Libby
L King
L ThompsonI can’t count Pallante. Barely counted Libby. Thompson as the swingman, today.
Who else should currently be in this top 10?
Cards are truly looking at a short-term fix, hoping to compete in 2024. This would buy a couple more years of fan base faith while they transition to the younger crew in ’25 and on.
I don’t really agree with the approach, and would be looking to get younger rather than older. If Lynn and Gibson eat up innings, that is one thing. But if they eat up innings with ERAs of around 5, that is not exactly going to translate into increased wins.
It seems we are treading water so far this offseason, not getting better but not getting any worse.
(Knizner) Does a good job behind the plate, and should hit well enough if given regular reps.
Yep, it was hard for him to gain traction with his situation in StL. I think he’s another guy with a good chance to do better elsewhere.
Who else should currently be in this top 10?
I hope they don’t think Rom is in the top 10, but we know from last winter Mo suffers from starter derangement syndrome. There is some chance Wilking makes the team. He looked pretty good in a few innings when he came back. It’s not like we’ve got rock stars at the end of the bench out in the pen.
Some may have forgotten that Knizner was given an extended opportunity to play daily in 2022 when Molina was on the IL. He didn’t cut it offensively, which is a big reason they signed Contreras. I wish him well, but he had his chances.
JJ – you have Thompson both in the rotation and in the bullpen. I get that he is a swingman, but…
They replaced $23 million in salary for Wainwright + Flaherty with $23 million in salary for Lynn + Gibson…If Lynn doesn’t fall off a cliff, that should net us an extra 2-3 wins this year. Only 17 more to go!!!
I am hoping their plan is to sign a #1 and a #2, and bump Matz & Thompson to the bullpen (or trade Matz).
Part of their innings crunch would be solved if they piggy-backed future starters with current starters.
Rotation:
SP1: TBD + bullpen
SP2: TBD + bullpen
SP3: Mikolas (1-5) + Thompson (6-9)
SP4: Gibson (1-5) + Matz (6-9)
SP5: Lynn (1-5) + Liberatore (6-9)This allows future starters to be stretched out and on a development path to take over starting roles next year. Saves the bullpen, which can still be used to put out fires.
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