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Carlson comps with Manuel Margot fairly well. If used as a 4th OF that floats, Carlson has depth value to us on an early arb salary.
In my view, Carlson remains the best option for defense at the CF position. Edman filled in nicely, but I believe his glove belongs at one of the two MI positions. I just don’t think the Cardinals can win with Eddie as the primary CF’er. Carlson may never hit anywhere near as well as some had hoped, but he’s still a very good Big League OF’er. Right now, he’s the best CF’er the Cardinals have.
I agree with BW on Carlson! 1400 plate appearances and getting worse every year! Continuing to put him out there every day and expect something different or better from him becomes another PDJ situation IMO!
The exact same argument can be made for or against O’Neill. At some point, one has to accept a player is what he has shown. Potential is a great word to use for minor leaguers, but not for a guy with going on four years of MLB experience. One good year and three not so good ones with a negative trend is the bottom line for me.
Carlson was in 35 games as a 21 year old rookie in 2020. Let’s disregard that “year”. In 2023 he was in only
76 games before he had surgery on his foot. Let’s also disregard that “year”. So he really only had 2 years
Which accounted for over 1,100 of his
1,481 major league plate appearances.
One good and one not so good.Unfortunately, we cannot cherry pick good games and bad. Good years and bad. They all count. The team takes real losses when the players don’t play well.
I don’t think the Cardinals see Carlson as a starter any more. His problems against RHP are consistent and long-term. It may be best for all to trade him. The downside is that his current value is probably at an all-time low.
And later on, if he emerges elsewhere as more than a player who at his best was 15% above league average offensively (2021), wish him well.
Three of Carlson’s four seasons, he has had an OPS below .700
Maybe the outlier is his one good season. Just like PDJ had one good season with the bat, and Edman has had one good season with the bat.
LA – you can count the 2020 season with 35 games as a 21 year old. I’m sorry, but I can’t. It’s not fair. And we have no idea how much that ankle was hurting this past season before he had surgery. 42% of his major league at bats were in a season where he came in 3rd in the ROY voting. In 2022 he could have been hurting or just experiencing a sophomore slump.
I sure wouldn’t give up on him or trade him at a low point. He’s the most natural pick for CF in 2024.@bccran – I look at trends in data, and the trends in the data show he is going to be a one-hit wonder.
If I am looking to maximize the roster, I am trading O’Neill & Carlson for clear upgrades at reliever.
I still think Carlson is a better player than he has shown, but cannot argue with the facts. As you guys point out, he just has not done all that well and has certainly not approached the potential he displayed coming through the system.
It seems a bit odd that he struggles so much hitting left handed, since he is a lefty. But that is the reality. His defense plays though, and I am okay with him starting 2024 as an everyday outfielder if it comes to that. But he needs to provide more consistent offense to maintain a primary role.
And another reality is that he will probably be dealt in an effort to bolster the pitching. He is a perfect candidate for a team to take in the hopes that he can break out given a change of scenery.
You can get the same production out of just about anyone as Carlson has given so replacing him is easy. But like I said, you do that only if by packaging him in a deal, you get something much better. The only good thing to it is that because of the injuries people are talking about, there may still be someone who thinks he’s a diamond in the rough and may well give up something good for him. Wait too long and you end up losing him for nothing.
It is a red flag for me when a player’s expected performace is prefaced with the phrase “when healthy”. Some players just can’t stay healthy. MLB doesn’t award bonus points in the standings for having a lot of players on the IL. If a player can’t stay on the field he has no value. The Cardinals can’t count on either Carlson or O’Neill to be more than a 4th OF. Expecting any more than that is what Mo did with our pitching staff last year. One of the two, if not both, needs to be traded soon. I would probably trade O’Neill since he costs more but Carlson might have more trade value since he has more team control.
The biggest difference between Carlson and O’Neill is that Carlson is still cheap and O’Neill isn’t. So my guess is O’Neill will surely be gone and Carlson only might be gone. But then, I felt sure O’Neill would be offed last winter.
I don’t think it is that clear, because we don’t know how the Cardinals and a trade partner value the two players and what they want/will give up in return.
Yes, O’Neill will make more, but that is partially because he has been better. So does the prospective trade partner prefer a player who is more proven with a shorter window to contribute who is more expensive or a guy with more control, but lesser results to date who carries a lower salary? Of course both are limited by injury questions.
gscottar –
Wainwright was pretty good “when healthy”. Chris Carpenter was pretty good “when healthy”.Carlson is just another prospect that missed
Another 1st round whiff. They already moved on from Hudson and Woodford this winter. Carlson would make strike three.
The Cardinals get accolades for how much home grown talent contributes to the major league ball club, but that has more to do with them not trading players than being superior at drafting.
Their track record in rounds 1 & 2, where you have the highest probability of success, is pretty abysmal.
BB –
Is a 2.63 ERA his first season in the majors considered a “whiff”? Is 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 32 starts in his second year in the majors considered a “whiff”? Is a 2.77 ERA in 8 starts in the shortened 2020 season considered a “whiff”?
I think Carlson is fine for CF, in fact I don’t have a clear preference between he and Edman out there. I’d suspect they’ll both be below average with the bat and average or a little better with the glove. Carlson walks a bit more, Edman has better base running skills and more versatility. If either could give us a rotation upgrade (not a bullpen upgrade, those are too volatile) I’d be ok with the trade.
I think Carlson is fine for CF
You would play Carlson against RHP? Which is most of the time.
His OPS+ vs RHP was 64. Coincidently, DeJong’s OPS+ vs RHP this year was also 64.
We have to quit clinging to lost causes, grasping for straws. Carlson was promising, but its another 1st round whiff.
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