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O’Neil and Carlson seem likely trade candidates to me.
Each deal is if course unique depending on your trading partner and the main piece on each side.
It’s nice when each side has an excess of what the other side wants but if not, you have to pick your poison and give up an asset you’d rather not to get a deal done.
I 100% think the Cards should trade Goldschmidt for pitching if they can work through him to do it. I also do not think that they will.
Luck and $. That’s what it will take. If Masyn Winn can hit, and Victor Scott 2 aces spring training. If MO can get some pitching for non core guys. That’s the luck part. If they spend for a couple of free agents, one being ace level. That’s the $ part. If they stay healthy. That’s more luck part.
The one player that could come back and bite Mo if traded is Carlson. He’s a potential All Star if he can stay healthy and play up to his ceiling.
I will look at Carlson from the other side.
1) At what point does a player have enough real stats in MLB that “potential” is no longer relevant? When not injured, Carlson has already amassed almost 1,500 career plate appearances in the majors. How many more would be needed for him to show himself?
2) He is not improving. In fact, he is declining. He has one career season above MLB average with the bat, 2021. The last two years, his OPS+ dropped from 115 to 99 to 79, 21% below average most recently.
3) He cannot hit right-handed pitching well enough to be a daily starter. His career line from that side is .221/.304/.368/.672. Just like his overall OPS, his results against righties are annually declining. (Last year, it was .592.) So what we seem to have is a platoon player who should only play against LHP.
What is being missed that should cause one to ignore all of the above and keep on holding out “hope”?
P.S. Pertaining to my question #1, when the Cardinals gave up on Adolis, he had 17 MLB PAs. Randy had 23. Lane Thomas had 142. Carlson has 1,481, which is more than eight times the PAs of the other three combined.
As I stated earlier, no matter who the Cardinals trade this off-season they have the potential to come back and bite them in the behind. Mo is in a really tough spot this winter.
Brian,
Those are great points. But hear me out. I think Carlson is complicated. There’s something psychological with him that happens when he’s comfortable vs when he isn’t. I think the talent is there. And he just turned 25 so he’s still very young. For instance, we all know Carlson kills left handed pitchers. Here’s his line:
.306/.377/.471/.848 for a 135 WRC+
You shared his struggles against righties. But let me put it in a little different context. What if I told you here’s how Carlson does against Righties while hitting at Home:
.240/.322/.406/.728 for a 103 WRC+
So he’s great against lefties all the time. And he’s just a little above average against righties at home. But here are his stats against right-handed pitchers on the road:
.201/.285/.330/.615 for a 69 WRC+
He turns into a pumpkin against righties when he plays on the road. The average is down, the on base percentage takes a hit, and his power is bad.
That’s a big difference and I think it’s all mental. If could hit righties like he does at home (in a tougher stadium in general to hit in), he’d be a very good player. So that’s why I think there’s a chance that he breaks out elsewhere and that he might actually be a lot better than he has been. There’s something there that just doesn’t quite click with him. Maybe it’s just a confidence thing with all the times he gets jerked in and out of the lineup. I’m not sure.
Just to add a note to the home/away splits above to further the point of Carlson being comfortable, here’s his Home splits batting against LHP:
.342/.392/.535/.927 for a 158 WRC+
Put up all them stats you want. Bottom line Carlson hit .219 in 2023 and is a career .243 hitter.
That’s just about all I need to know. It’s risky to expect anything out of him.
And Nootbaar isn’t much better. He’s a career .246 hitter.
Why not have Carlson hit from the right side all the time?
Work him out this winter against right handed pitchers. Who says he has to stay a switch hitter? Or a platoon player?Carlson has been given plenty of time to shine. If you can package him to get a better pitcher, it’s a no brainier. If he does go somewhere and does a lot better, that will be more evidence that maybe our coaching is flawed. I don’t see him getting better with the cardinals
I’m afraid Carlson will thrive somewhere else. But maybe that’s just what it takes. He has gotten worse here. If we can get pitching,we should do the trade. Still, if things weren’t such a cluster, we could give him another year. Still a young player who suffered injuries last year.
Jnevel wrote:
Rats, Adolis Garcia is a career .244 hitter. Does that mean the Rangers need to drop him too?
If Carlson would be bashing 35-40 homeruns a year then the .243 career average would somewhat be acceptable. But just barely…….
r/Esteemed Rat
In 2001, Carlson came in 3rd in the ROY voting. If he’s healthy in 2024, he can be a good all around asset.
Jack Flaherty was great in 2019. Tyler O’Neill had a great 2021. The common thread is all three had one great year, but not another.
Injuries can dampen performance. Flaherty and O’Neill are both 28. Carlson is 25. Sizable difference. Carlson needs another year or two to really see what he’s capable of. 2020 was a void in his development.
I asked how many more plate appearances beyond 1,500 does Carlson need? You suggest two more years, which could get him to 2,500 PAs. That seems excessive to stick with him unless he has a major turnaround.
2020 was a void for everyone. Carlson’s best year was 2021, so I don’t buy that excuse.
FYI, O’Neill has 1,636 career PAs, not that many more than Carlson. That experience is a more important indicator than age. Yet folks have given up on O’Neill. I don’t see a major difference.
1,500 PAs or not, Carlson’s only full season was in 2021. When he excelled. I’d like to see what he can do if he puts together one more injury free season. Evidently, he’s drawing some decent interest in the trade market.
Brian –
You say “when not injured, Carlson has amassed almost 1,500 plate appearances in the majors”. I don’t think we know how many of those 1,481 PAs he played with some pain. I’m guessing a lot in 2022 and 2023.Given his primary problem is specific to (not) hitting RHP, which is the way he has taken 75% of his career PAs to date (over 1,100), I am wondering how more reps will help that. Time will tell.
Regarding playing when injured, we have no data to suggest that Carlson has played more games with minor injuries than the average player (to which OPS+ is compared). O’Neill might be another good comp here.
Anyway, we have made our points. I will step back from this topic for now.
Well if we can’t find a way to package him in a deal for a better pitcher, then maybe it’s fine if we keep him. If we make the mistake of holding him when we could have gotten something better like we did before, then it will just be another indictment against ownership in a long list. Far as him being injury free. Does no one ever learn from the past.Once players start having injuries, they don’t just stop having them.
It’s hard to tell how much injuries have affected his performance. That ankle has probably been bothering him for some time. Finally requiring surgery.
No reply expected. Just two opinions.
I don’t know about that, willie. Some players have been patched up and gone injury free for the rest of their careers.
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